Bitcoin
Real Vision Analyst Jamie Coutts Issues Bitcoin Warning Amid Strong Dollar Rally, Says Macro Backdrop Soured
Real Vision’s head crypto analyst Jamie Coutts says that the US dollar is on the verge of foiling the rally for Bitcoin (BTC) and digital assets.
While the long-term bullish structure is still intact, Coutts says that a strong dollar is threatening to derail BTC’s movement in the short term.
“The macro backdrop has soured. Dollar strength is not good for Bitcoin. Ann Funding rates hit 40% 2 days ago. My liquidity framework is sensitive to the short to medium-term changes in momentum. In the long term, the picture is Bullish; in the Short term, they suggest caution.”
Zooming in on the dollar index (DXY), which pits the USD against a basket of other major foreign currencies, Coutts says it’s trading just below a critical resistance level at 106 that wouldn’t bode well for BTC if it breaks.
“DXY is right at the resistance level. A break above here would not be good for risk assets.”
Over the longer term, Coutts believes there is a strong relationship between Bitcoin and global liquidity, or the amount of money sloshing around in the world’s economy. The analyst says that regardless of shorter-term volatility, BTC should continue to run higher over the next year or two along with a rise in M2 money supply.
“Longer term, this is where I am at for this cycle; a 12-month forecast based on linear relationship with liquidity. But Bitcoin cycles are not linear. I think we go much higher than this.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $91,350.
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Bitcoin price is at a pivotal level as ETF flows offloaded $93 million on Friday, ending a 10-day buying spree. While BTC holds key support at $82,000, BlackRock investors disposition may signal optimism.
Bitcoin ETFs End 10-day Buying Spree, But BlackRock Investors Hold
Bitcoin ETFs drew media attention on Friday as net outflows reached $93 million, marking the end of a 10-day buying spree that added over $1.07 billion in BTC.
FairSide data reveals that all of the outflows came from Fidelity’s FBTC, while BlackRock’s IBIT and eight other U.S.-approved spot ETFs recorded neutral flows, signaling diverging institutional investor sentiment.
Despite the selling pressure, BTC price showed resilience, bouncing from a 10-day low of $82,000 to reclaim the $84,000 level over the weekend.
This suggests that while some institutional players have turned cautious, BTC continues to find buyers at the $82,000 mark, likely driven by macroeconomic hedging.
Why Are Bitcoin ETFs Taking a Neutral Outlook Despite Bearish Market Sentiment?
While Bitcoin’s brief dip below $82,000 coincided with renewed regulatory uncertainty—following U.S. Congress’ scrutiny of Paul Atkins, Trump’s crypto-friendly SEC pick—the decision by major ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT to hold rather than sell suggests a more calculated approach among institutional investors.
One possible explanation is that institutional investors are weighing broader macroeconomic risks. With concerns mounting over Trump’s proposed trade policies and their potential impact on traditional stock markets, Bitcoin remains an attractive hedge due to its independence from traditional financial structures. This could explain why ETF outflows have been concentrated in specific funds like FBTC rather than across the board.
- Large Un-realized Profits
Prior to the $93 million sell-off observed on Friday, Bitcoin ETFs had acquired over $1.07 billion in the previous 10-days. This sheer volume of Bitcoin accumulated by ETFs in recent weeks means that short-term supply is limited.
It also hints that majority on investors who began buying when BTC prices plunged below $77,000 over the past week are still in profit, hence the reluctance to sell.
This key dynamics may have contributed to Bitcoin price holding key support levels above $82,000. Notably, while BTC price rebounded, leading altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Ripple (XRP) have lagged behind, further reinforcing the narrative that institutional capital remains primarily focused on BTC.
What’s Next for Bitcoin ETFs and Institutional Demand?
The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin ETFs resume their accumulation trend or if further outflows signal a shift in sentiment. Investors will closely watch developments in U.S. regulatory policy and broader market conditions to assess whether Bitcoin’s status as a safe-haven asset remains intact.
If the macroeconomic environment continues to favor Bitcoin as a non-correlated asset, ETF inflows could resume, pushing BTC to new highs. However, prolonged uncertainty or negative regulatory developments could trigger deeper corrections.
For now, BlackRock and other major institutional players appear to be maintaining their positions, indicating confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Faces Critical Resistance at $84,400 Amid Bearish Pennant Formation
Bitcoin price forecast signals remains uncertain as BTC trades at $82,363, hovering near key support levels. The Bollinger Bands show tightening volatility, with resistance at $84,412 and $88,215. The Parabolic SAR at $80,237 suggests a continuation of the downtrend unless BTC breaks above the mid-range resistance.
A bearish pennant formation signals potential downside risk. If BTC fails to reclaim $84,400, selling pressure could drive the price towards $80,600 or even the lower Bollinger Band at $80,237. The volume delta reveals declining buying momentum, supporting the bearish case.
However, a bullish scenario emerges if BTC can hold above $82,000 and break past $84,400 with strong volume. This could lead to a rally toward $88,215, negating the bearish pennant. With key resistance intact, Bitcoin’s trajectory depends on its next move at this crucial level.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Bitcoin price is declining due to ETF outflows, regulatory uncertainty, and shifting investor sentiment favoring safer assets like gold and cash.
Yes, if institutional demand returns, macroeconomic conditions improve, and key support levels hold, Bitcoin could regain bullish momentum.
Bitcoin ETFs drive large-scale buying and selling, influencing price volatility and overall market liquidity depending on institutional investor behavior.
ibrahim
Crypto analyst covering derivatives markets, macro trends, technical analysis, and DeFi. His works feature in-depth market insights, price forecasts, and institutional-grade research on digital assets.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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Bitcoin is making its way from trading desks to corporate treasuries, and by the end of the decade, it could be standard practice, according to one analyst.
“Across all the different strategies and implementations, I anticipate that by 2030, a quarter of the S&P 500 will have BTC somewhere on their balance sheets as a long-term asset,” Elliot Chun, a partner at Architect Partners, wrote in a market snapshot.
The strategy—holding bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset—was unorthodox when Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, first adopted it in August 2020. The firm framed BTC as a hedge against inflation, a diversification tool, and a way to distinguish itself in the market.
Then CEO Michael Saylor’s highly public embrace of bitcoin transformed the company into a de facto proxy for BTC exposure. Since then, MicroStrategy stock has surged more than 2,000%, far outpacing both the S&P 500 and bitcoin over the same period, Chun pointed out.
GameStop is the latest company to follow suit, announcing this week that it would raise $1.3 billion through a convertible note to acquire bitcoin. Its stock initially surged following the announcement but has since endured a correction, falling nearly 15% for the week.
Chun argued that treasurers may soon face career risk not for buying bitcoin, but for ignoring it altogether. “Doing nothing is no longer a defensible strategy,” he wrote.
According to BitcoinTreasuries data, publicly listed companies currently hold 665,618 BTC, around 3.17% of the cryptocurrency’s total supply. Strategy holds the lion’s share, 506,137 BTC.
Read more: U.S. Listed Firms Continue Bitcoin (BTC) Treasury Adoption
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Bitcoin’s price action in the past 48 hours has seen it approaching the $80,000 price level again, with risks of breaking to the downside. Looking at on-chain data shows a notable support level between $80,920 and $78,000 that must not be broken.
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Particularly, on-chain analytics from Glassnode point to a thinning of support at the $78,000 level, where only minimal cost basis clusters now exist. The insight follows a sharp move that saw savvy traders scoop up nearly 15,000 Bitcoin at the March 10 low before cashing out at the $87,000 local top.
Support Cushion Rises With Clusters Between $80,000 And $84,000
Bitcoin started the month of March with a crazy crash that saw its price hit below $77,000 on March 10 and March 11. Most of the month was spent by Bitcoin embarking on a recovery from this level, eventually reaching as high as $88,500 last week.
Interestingly, on-chain data from Glassnode shows that some Bitcoin traders took advantage of the crash and bought about 15,000 BTC at this low. However, many addresses from this same cohort sold at the $87,000 local top, leaving behind a depleted buffer zone that may no longer offer the same price stability.
Bitcoin’s strongest cost basis clusters have steadily migrated upward from $78,000 throughout the month, with the most prominent support levels now sitting between $80,920 and $84,100. Approximately 20,000 BTC were acquired at $80,920, 50,000 BTC at $82,090, and another 40,000 BTC at around $84,100. These fresh accumulations are now the new zones of confidence among recent buyers that may offer cushions for the recent market dip.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $83,120, meaning that it has lost the zone of 40,000 BTC around $84,100. This puts the onus on $82,090 and, subsequently, the $80,920 price levels. However, if the correction sharpens further, it wouldn’t be until after $78,000 that structural support reappears at $74,000 and $71,000, where long-term conviction buying occurred, estimated at 49,000 BTC and 41,000 BTC, respectively.
Image From X: Glassnode
$95,000 Cost Basis Cluster Grows With Cooling Demand
As support continues to climb gradually, resistance appears to be firming near the $95,000 mark. Investor cost basis data shows an increase of 12,000 BTC clustered at this level since March 24.
This implies that some investors now anticipate a top forming around $95,000, and selling activity could become more pronounced if prices approach that zone. This resistance, alongside the support levels, could see Bitcoin confined within a narrowing range in the short term.
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Glassnode data confirms that long-term holders (addresses holding Bitcoin for more than 150 days) have been the primary source of profit-taking for a while. Long-term holders’ profit-taking is now nearly matched by the losses endured by short-term traders who have been holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days.
Image From X: Glassnode
Featured image from Tech Research Online, chart from TradingView
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