Benjamin Cowen is saying that the price action of Bitcoin (BTC) could mirror that of the Nasdaq exchange-traded fund (ETF) Invesco QQQ during the first 13 months that followed its launch about 26 years ago.

In a new video, Cowen tells his 855,000 YouTube subscribers that the QQQ ETF hit a local top after going up by 150% in roughly one year following the launch of the ETF.

The QQQ ETF tracks the performance of the 100 largest non-financial firms listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange.

As the flagship digital asset approaches the first anniversary since the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF, Cowen says the crypto king could replicate similar price action, though it’s unlikely to “play out the exact same way.”

“In 1999 the QQQ ETF launched in March and it rallied from around $48 to $120. And that Rally from $48 to $120 took about 54 weeks – $48 to $120…

…if you look at Bitcoin’s ETF, it launched at around $48,000… if you look at the launch of the spot ETF for Bitcoin it wicked up to $48,000 instead of down to it like it did with the QQQ [ETF]. But interestingly enough, 54 weeks later is January 20th – Inauguration Day [of President-elect Donald Trump], which is interesting because 54 weeks after this launch of the QQQ, it was 54 weeks later the QQQ went from like $48 to $120.

Now look at this, if you go to Bitcoin on the daily time frame and you connect these highs here [$99,600, $104,100 and $108,200] and you just extend that out what’s fascinating is if you grab the sort of a price label and you go over to January 20th and go up to this trend line it would put you at $120,000 which is exactly what the QQQ did – it went from $48 to $120, 54 weeks later.”

Cowen says that if Bitcoin’s price action closely follows that of the QQQ ETF in the first 13 months of its existence, a 48% drop is a possibility.

“Obviously this is very dubious and obviously, we know that QQQ got a large drop after that…

…what I would be interested in is if Bitcoin finds itself at $120,000 at some point in a few weeks, what is the reaction there? And one potential outcome… basically what happened with the QQQ is after it hit $120, it had a large drop down to $63, which is a pretty big drop.”

Bitcoin is trading at $101,484 at time of writing.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Bitcoin (BTC) has seen bullish but unsteady price action in early 2025, with recent data highlighting shifting sentiment among US investors. After briefly crossing the $102,000 mark yesterday, the asset has struggled to maintain upward momentum, shedding most of its recent gains as it stands at just below $100,000.

These developments coincide with critical insights from key on-chain metrics that offer a clearer view of Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.

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Bitcoin’s Price Struggles Despite Positive Coinbase Premium Index Signal

A CryptoQuant analyst known as Burak Kesmeci recently shared insights on the Coinbase Premium Index (CPI), which turned positive for the first time in 2025. The CPI measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other global exchanges, serving as a crucial indicator of US investor sentiment.

3 days ago, Coinbase Premium Index crossed SMA14 for the 1st time in 26 days—Bitcoin is now up 4% to $102K.

In Nov 2024, a similar move saw Bitcoin rally from $69K to $108K.

U.S. buyers could be back in action. pic.twitter.com/XtAlHUzzvv

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 6, 2025

Alongside this positive shift, a notable 4,012 BTC outflow from Coinbase was recorded, signaling renewed buying interest among US-based investors. Historically, such patterns have been associated with a rise in buying pressure, often laying the groundwork for potential price surges.

Despite these positive signals, Bitcoin’s price performance remains restrained. After briefly surpassing $102,000 on December 6, Bitcoin retreated and now trades below $100,000, reflecting a modest 3.3% decrease over the past 24 hours.

This price mark from the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization puts it at approximately 8.9% below its all-time high of $108,135, achieved in December 2024.

Bitcoin Faces Key Resistance Levels

Notably, the current price action from BTC suggests that while buying pressure exists, it may not yet be sufficient to trigger another strong rally.

According to cryptocurrency analyst Ali, Bitcoin maintains a critical support zone between $95,400 and $98,400, where over 1.77 million addresses collectively hold 1.53 million BTC.

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This support zone remains essential for stabilizing Bitcoin’s price amid market uncertainty. Conversely, resistance appears limited, with only 107,000 BTC supply positioned between $104,700 and $105,770. This relatively thin resistance could pave the way for upward movement if buying pressure intensifies.

#Bitcoin sits well above an important support zone between $95,400 and $98,400, where 1.77 million addresses bought over 1.53 million $BTC. However, there isn’t significant resistance ahead, only a minimal supply wall of 107,000 #BTC between $104,700 and $105,770. pic.twitter.com/MEATFegTV2

— Ali (@ali_charts) January 7, 2025

Meanwhile, zooming out, analysts remain bullish overall on Bitcoin. Captain Faibik for instance has recently shared his outlook on BTC suggesting that the asset is still poised for a rally to $112,000.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

A closely followed crypto analyst says that smart contract platform Solana (SOL) is potentially forming a bullish technical pattern that could see it surge by over 1,700%.

In a new strategy session, crypto trader Ali Martinez tells his 108,000 followers on the social media platform X that it’s possible the Ethereum (ETH) rival is forming a cup-and-handle pattern that could push it to astronomical levels.

“There’s a chance SOL is forming a cup-and-handle pattern, and it will reach $4,000!”

A cup and handle is typically observed when the price movement of an asset forms a “cup” pattern before printing a smaller “handle” structure which suggests consolidation prior to a potential breakout.

Solana is trading for $215 at time of writing, a 1.3% decrease during the last 24 hours. If Solana were to reach Martinez’s target price, it would represent a staggering 1,760% increase.

Moving on to the flagship digital asset Bitcoin (BTC), Martinez notes that Coinbase’s Premium Index – which tracks the price premium for BTC on Coinbase and therefore its demand in the US by proxy – suggests that institutional demand for the top crypto asset by market cap is ramping up in America.

“The Coinbase Premium Index recently hit -0.23%, a two-year low, but it’s now rebounding quickly. This signals growing institutional demand for BTC from US-based investors!”

Bitcoin is trading for $98,137 at time of writing, a marginal decrease on the day.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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