Nansen Research has highlighted the macroeconomic factors and cues this week that the firm says could confirm the probability of a crypto bottom between April and June.

Nansen principal researcher Aurelie Barthere shared the outlook on April 1, 2025, noting that this week will see notable data releases and policy announcements. 

The macroeconomic factors that investors across the markets will focus on this week include the Federal Reserve policy, tariffs and U.S. growth via signals such as manufacturing and jobs data.

According to Nansen, this “Liberation Week” is set to see key data disclosures and potential political announcements, which when combined with prevailing market sentiment, could provide an indicator to the price trajectory of Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto.

Barthere has a similar forecast for other financial assets, with equities having suffered in recent weeks.

Tariff jtters also continue to dictate crypto and risk assets movement. Recent 25% auto tariffs announcement, as do potential reciprocal tariffs, is a key concern. However, Nansen researchers say flexibility that sees “constructive negotiations” and concessions from the world’s largest economies, including the Eurozone, Japan and China, will be positive. 

The same applies to a balancing act from the Fed, with chair Jerome Powell set to speak on Friday. According to Nansen, clarity on the odds of three rate cuts for the year is expected across the market.

On what investors might want to get from Powell’s speech, Nansen said:

“We would like to hear Fed Chair Powell reiterate his FOMC’s press conference rather dovish stance, e.g. concerns over growth will be prioritized and the Fed will be comfortable with cutting rates even with core inflation close to 3% YoY.” 

In terms of employment data out on Friday, Nansen says non-farm payroll numbers for March between economist consensus at 139k and the six-month average of 191k and an unemployment rate of 4.3% will be good news for investors.

This is key as growth concerns amid the recent 11% drop for the S&P 500 weigh down on investors. Technical indicators for BTC are also not encouraging, with price failing to break above the 200-day moving average. Altcoins are also in sell-off mode, with most posting dead crosses to suggest a fragile market sentiment that will fancy any “good news”. 

Overall, Nansen sees a positive outlook this week as one that will confirm the analytics platform’s 70% probability that crypto will track a bottom between April and June.

Shares of Coinbase (COIN), the largest crypto exchange in the US, have faced significant declines during the first quarter (Q1) of the year, primarily due to escalating concerns about the US economy and its impact on digital assets. 

Coinbase And Others Face Increased Volatility

According to Bloomberg, Coinbase’s stock has dropped more than 30% since the beginning of the quarter, marking its worst performance since the collapse of the FTX exchange in late 2022. 

This decline is reflective of a broader trend affecting nearly all major crypto-linked stocks, including companies like Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY.TO), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and Core Scientific (CORZ).

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The cryptocurrency market itself is experiencing turmoil, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling over 20% from its all-time high and Ethereum (ETH) plummeting more than 45% in value. 

These shifts come amid President Donald Trump’s escalation of a “global trade war,” which has stirred fears about the health of the country’s economy. Economic data has exacerbated these concerns, pushing the S&P 500 Index (GSPC) toward its worst quarter since mid-2022. 

Oppenheimer analyst Owen Lau noted that many within the cryptocurrency community recognize that the current market conditions are not primarily driven by fundamental factors. Instead, Lau emphasized that macroeconomic issues—such as tariffs and the potential trade war—are influencing investor sentiment significantly. 

The looming threat of a recession has reportedly added to the unease, causing higher-risk crypto-linked stocks to be even more volatile than Bitcoin itself. 

Lau explains that investments in companies like Coinbase carry additional risks, including the potential for bankruptcy, allegedly making them particularly susceptible to swift sell-offs.

Cryptocurrency Market Struggles To Rebound

The current state of the cryptocurrency market is a stark contrast to the optimism that prevailed at the start of the year, following Trump’s election. Bitcoin reached a record high of over $109,000 on Inauguration Day. 

Earlier this month, Bitcoin prices fell after Trump announced a strategic reserve for the market’s leading crypto, but did not allocate taxpayer funds to expand it. As of now, Bitcoin trades around $83,000, still above pre-election levels but far from its peak.

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While shares of various crypto-related companies surged following the election, Coinbase and crypto miners have since relinquished those gains. Notably, Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) is among the few stocks in the sector that has managed to remain in positive territory since November 5.

Despite the downturn, the cryptocurrency industry continues to gain influence in Washington and is moving closer to integration with traditional financial systems. However, this growing power has yet to translate into a market rebound. 

Connor Loewen, a cryptocurrency analyst at 3iQ, expressed skepticism about the current state of investor sentiment, stating, “What we saw a couple of months ago, I don’t know how much crazier it can get than that. I think we’re going to have to be looking for new catalysts.”

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s price action in the past 48 hours has seen it approaching the $80,000 price level again, with risks of breaking to the downside. Looking at on-chain data shows a notable support level between $80,920 and $78,000 that must not be broken. 

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Particularly, on-chain analytics from Glassnode point to a thinning of support at the $78,000 level, where only minimal cost basis clusters now exist. The insight follows a sharp move that saw savvy traders scoop up nearly 15,000 Bitcoin at the March 10 low before cashing out at the $87,000 local top.

Support Cushion Rises With Clusters Between $80,000 And $84,000

Bitcoin started the month of March with a crazy crash that saw its price hit below $77,000 on March 10 and March 11. Most of the month was spent by Bitcoin embarking on a recovery from this level, eventually reaching as high as $88,500 last week.

Interestingly, on-chain data from Glassnode shows that some Bitcoin traders took advantage of the crash and bought about 15,000 BTC at this low. However, many addresses from this same cohort sold at the $87,000 local top, leaving behind a depleted buffer zone that may no longer offer the same price stability.

Bitcoin’s strongest cost basis clusters have steadily migrated upward from $78,000 throughout the month, with the most prominent support levels now sitting between $80,920 and $84,100. Approximately 20,000 BTC were acquired at $80,920, 50,000 BTC at $82,090, and another 40,000 BTC at around $84,100. These fresh accumulations are now the new zones of confidence among recent buyers that may offer cushions for the recent market dip.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $83,120, meaning that it has lost the zone of 40,000 BTC around $84,100. This puts the onus on $82,090 and, subsequently, the $80,920 price levels. However, if the correction sharpens further, it wouldn’t be until after $78,000 that structural support reappears at $74,000 and $71,000, where long-term conviction buying occurred, estimated at 49,000 BTC and 41,000 BTC, respectively.

Image From X: Glassnode

$95,000 Cost Basis Cluster Grows With Cooling Demand

As support continues to climb gradually, resistance appears to be firming near the $95,000 mark. Investor cost basis data shows an increase of 12,000 BTC clustered at this level since March 24.

This implies that some investors now anticipate a top forming around $95,000, and selling activity could become more pronounced if prices approach that zone. This resistance, alongside the support levels, could see Bitcoin confined within a narrowing range in the short term.

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Glassnode data confirms that long-term holders (addresses holding Bitcoin for more than 150 days) have been the primary source of profit-taking for a while. Long-term holders’ profit-taking is now nearly matched by the losses endured by short-term traders who have been holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. 

Image From X: Glassnode

Featured image from Tech Research Online, chart from TradingView