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Analyst Reveals Bitcoin’s Halving Cycle Signals Untapped Potential—What’s Next?

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Bitcoin’s price performance in recent weeks has maintained a sluggish movement, with the cryptocurrency now hovering near the $97,000 mark. Despite the 3% decline over the past two weeks, Bitcoin remains within a consolidation phase following its January all-time high above $109,000.

As the asset lingers in this range, discussions around the ongoing halving cycle and its potential impact on future price movements have gained momentum. One noteworthy perspective comes from CryptoQuant analyst Oinonen, who recently shared insights into Bitcoin’s current standing relative to past halving cycles.

Institutional Activity and Market Signals

In a detailed analysis titled “Comparing Post-Halving Performance,” Oinonen pointed out that Bitcoin’s price has only risen 63% since the most recent halving in April 2024. This contrasts sharply with the 686% surge seen in the halving cycle of 2020-2021.

While the power-law model and the principle of diminishing returns suggest more subdued gains over time, the relatively modest appreciation since the last halving indicates that the current cycle may still be in progress, leaving room for further upside.

Bitcoin halving cycle analysis

Oinonen also highlighted the role of institutional players in shaping Bitcoin’s price outlook. Notably, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to be an influential market participant. In early 2025, the company increased its Bitcoin holdings by 7,633 BTC, bringing its total to roughly 478,740 units.

According to Oinonen, Strategy’s ongoing acquisition strategy is a key indicator of institutional demand. Historically, these purchases have been pro-cyclical, suggesting that continued accumulation could signal a positive trajectory for Bitcoin’s spot price. Conversely, a slowdown in institutional buying could reflect a weaker market sentiment.

Long-Term Outlook Amid Unfinished Halving Cycle

Looking ahead, Oinonen anticipates a mixed market environment. Short-term challenges, such as a potential “sell in May” effect and a stagnant summer, may give way to stronger performance in the fourth quarter.

The analyst reveals that this seasonal pattern has played out repeatedly in previous years, often resulting in elevated price levels by year’s end. However, the possibility of a more significant correction—spanning several months or even a year—remains on the table, particularly if macroeconomic events, such as geopolitical resolutions, shift market dynamics.

Overall, the current halving cycle, by Oinonen’s analysis, appears incomplete. The moderate gains since April 2024 reflect a market that has yet to fully capitalize on the reduced issuance rate.

As such, the notion that Bitcoin’s bull run might still have legs is underpinned by historical trends and the presence of institutional players like Strategy. The interplay between reduced supply and continued demand sets the stage for potential upward movements, even as near-term volatility persists.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView



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Why Is The Bitcoin Price Surging Today?

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Bitcoin price has risen as prices of cryptocurrencies fluctuate in preparation for President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff implementations.

The price action follows as retaliatory tariffs are going to be imposed on a number of U.S. imports that caused uncertainty in financial markets. Bitcoin had ranged between a 24-hour low of $83,939.88 and a 24-hour high of $87,300.86, resting around $86,600 at the time of writing.

Market analysts are suggesting Bitcoin could be looking for a potential breakout if certain price levels hold through the weekly close.

Tariffs And Their Potential Impact On Bitcoin Price

CoinShares head of research James Butterfill warned in a February note that tariffs would likely have negative short-term effects on the BTC Price. “Unlike gold, bitcoin has a growth component, meaning it reacts to economic trends and liquidity cycles,” Butterfill explained.

The imposition of tariffs would slow down economic growth and decrease the demand for risk assets like cryptocurrencies. This slowdown in the economy would generally lower interest in riskier investments. This is since market participants move into more secure alternatives.

Also, tariffs raise inflation, which usually results in speculations of increased interest rates. These monetary policy changes tend to put downward pressure on Bitcoin price and other cryptocurrencies traditionally.

Another concern is Bitcoin’s correlation with stock markets during periods of economic uncertainty. Tariffs could cause a temporary price drop in crypto as traditional markets respond to the changing trade sector.

Technical Analysis Points To Possible Breakout

Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted Bitcoin’s recent price movement in a tweet. He noted that “Bitcoin has increased by +$2000 in the past hour.” The analyst suggested this places BTC close to positioning itself for a future breakout beyond the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Rekt Capital emphasized the importance of the weekly close. He stated that if Bitcoin closes above $87,650, it would signal a trend shift. This level has become a key point of focus for traders watching for confirmation of Bitcoin’s next directional move.

In addition to price action analysis, Rekt Capital also commented on Bitcoin’s market dominance in a separate tweet. “Bitcoin Dominance has increased between 7-9% within one month on 4 separate occasions since mid-2023,” the analyst tweeted. The current BTC dominance is only 8% away from reaching 71%.

According to Rekt Capital, another similar growth spurt in Bitcoin’s market share would comfortably push BTC dominance to that resistance level. This increasing dominance indicates capital flowing from altcoins back into Bitcoin. This is often seen during periods when investors seek the relative safety of the largest cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin price has been showing strong movement within the past 24 hours, climbing as high as $87,300.86.

The current trading range places Bitcoin near levels that technical analysts consider important for deciding future price direction. A sustained hold above the $87,000 mark would support the bullish case. Additionally, a drop below the $84,000 level might indicate further consolidation is needed.

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Vignesh

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Bitfarms secures $300m loan to fuel AI and data center growth

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Canadian Bitcoin mining company Bitfarms secured up to $300 million in private debt from Australian multinational investment firm Macquarie to fund its data center development.

Bitfarms has reached an initial agreement for a private debt facility of up to $300 million from Macquarie Equipment Capital to support its Panther Creek data center project in Pennsylvania.

In an April 2 press release, the Canadian crypto mining company said that the first tranche of the loan is $50 million, with the rest available if the company “achieves specific development milestones.”

Bitfarms CEO Ben Gagnon says the partnership with Macquarie is the beginning of its investment in the “near-term development” of Panther Creek data center, adding that amid the surging AI revolution and the growing demand for power and infrastructure, the financing “arrives at a pivotal time.”

“The maturity of each facility is two years from the date of closing. Each facility will bear interest at a rate of 8% per annum, with interest on the initial draw of $50 million paid in kind for the first three months.”

Bitfarms

Joshua Stevens, an associate director at Macquarie, pointed out that the location is “within 100 miles of New York City and Philadelphia,” which could make it appealing to high-performance computing tenants. Following the announcement, Bitfarms’ shares rose by 2.54% on Nasdaq.

The loan agreement comes just weeks after Bitfarms completed its all-stock acquisition of Stronghold Digital Mining through a stock-for-stock merger, with Stronghold shareholders receiving 2.52 Bitfarms shares for every Stronghold share they held.

As crypto.news reported, nearly 60 million Bitfarms shares and over 10.5 million warrants were issued as part of the deal, and Stronghold’s stock was delisted from Nasdaq and ceased trading.



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Bitcoin Price Struggling but Short-Term Holders Might Be Setting the Stage for $150K

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Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname – HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.

Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think’s probably unfeasible, I’ve done already a hundredfold.”

PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.



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