So far, crypto markets haven’t behaved as expected under the Trump Administration. Investors hoped that regulatory reform and policies like a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve would drive prices appreciably higher. But it’s been the opposite. Bitcoin has fallen from highs well above $100,000 at the beginning of the year to a trough in the mid-80,000s for most of March.

Crypto prices have suffered from being increasingly correlated with traditional assets like stocks and bonds, which have been hit by macroeconomic uncertainty. Tariffs — surcharges the U.S. places on imports from other countries — have Wall Street worried about a global recession. Crypto investors have been steering clear of crypto assets, which are seen as relatively risky.

“This is all about markets’ ‘risk appetite’ which continues to deteriorate, and for the time being drives a wedge between crypto assets and gold, which continues to be the ‘safe haven’ of choice,” said Marc Ostwald, Chief Economist & Global Strategist at ADM Investor Services International.

“[That’s] in no small part driven by central bank FX reserve managers, who are seeking to reduce USD exposure, which has long been a source of concern to them.”

As the global financial and trade system becomes more fragmented, investors are seeking alternatives to riskier assets, including dollars. For now, that means turning to gold, which is up 18% year-to-date.

But that could change, said Omid Malekan, an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School and author of “The Story of the Blockchain: A Beginner’s Guide to the Technology That Nobody Understands.” Bitcoin could be the new gold soon enough.

“I think the entire [future] is uncertain and in some ways unknowable, because there are many crosscurrents and both crypto and tariffs are new. Some people argue that crypto is just a risk-on tech asset and would sell off due to tariffs. But bitcoin has found footing in some circles as ‘digital gold’ and the physical variety is soaring on the tariff news. So which will it be?”

In other words, economic uncertainty could lead investors to seek out bitcoin just as they have sought out gold in recent months.

Another note of positivity: the impact of tariffs on crypto could be “priced in” and the worst might be over already, said Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, a leading crypto asset management firm.

President Trump is due to announce U.S. tariffs on Wednesday, April 2, at 4 p.m. ET—what’s known as “Liberation Day.” According to reports, he’ll lay out “reciprocal tariffs” against 15 countries that have levied tariffs against the U.S., including China, Canada and Mexico.

Pandl estimates tariffs have so far taken 2% off economic growth this year. But Liberation Day might actually stop the worst of the pain felt in financial markets. “If we see an announcement [on Wednesday] that is tough but phased, and focused on the 15 countries they seem to be targeting, my expectation is that markets will rally on that news,” Pandl told CoinDesk.

“Potentially once we get through this announcement, crypto markets can focus back on the fundamentals which are very positive.”

Pandl said announcements like Circle’s IPO wouldn’t be happening if institutions didn’t have a high degree of confidence in the digital assets sector and the policies around it.

Moreover, Pandl, a former macro-economist at Goldman Sachs, believes that tariffs will increase the appetite for currencies that aren’t dollars.

“I think tariffs will weaken the dominant role of the dollar and create space for competitors including bitcoin. Prices have gone down in the short run. But the first few months of the Trump Administration have raised my conviction in the longer term for bitcoin as a global monetary asset.”

Pendl still believes that bitcoin will hit new all-time highs this year, despite current pessimism around prices. “I wouldn’t have quit my Wall Street job if I didn’t think bitcoin will be the winner in the long term,” he said.

Recently very shaky risk assets — crypto among them — are attempting a rally on Tuesday, perhaps. buoyed by chatter that Donald Trump’s tariffs won’t be as stringent as feared.

In early afternoon U.S. action, bitcoin (BTC) had climbed to just above $85,000, ahead 2.1% over the past 24 hours. Previously really roughed up crypto majors like ether (ETH), dogecoin (DOGE) and cardano (ADA) had put in gains of roughly twice that amount.

Crypto stocks are also performing well, with bitcoin miners Core Scientific (CORZ) and CleanSpark (CLSK) jumping almost 10% on the day. Strategy (MSTR) is up 5.4% and Coinbase (COIN) 2.1%.

U.S. stocks reversed early session losses to turn higher as well, with the Nasdaq now ahead just shy of 1% for the day.

The action comes ahead of the Trump administration’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariff rollout set for tomorrow after the close of U.S. trading.

Hope?

A report from NBC News suggested the market’s most feared option — blanket 20% tariffs across the board — is “less likely” to be the direction taken by the White House. Instead, according to the report, a “tiered system” of different rates or country-by-country rates could be announced.

Also maybe helping is what appears to be the first acknowledgement that the administration is aware of the market tumult resulting from all the tariff chatter. Speaking today at her daily briefing, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that there were legitimate concerns about market swings.

Meanwhile, Israel’s Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich announced on Tuesday that a process had been launched to get rid of tariffs on U.S. imports in that country.

Six of the top eight cryptocurrencies by market cap have seen modest gains Tuesday morning, with crypto majors led by Dogecoin and Cardano (ADA) notching gains of up to 5.2% and 5.9% each.

Data on CoinGecko also shows green over the past 24 hours across Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, and Solana. Charts show Bitcoin gaining 2.5%, Ethereum up 3.7%, with BNB and Solana up 2.5% and 3.3% respectively.

Notably, some $1 million in bearish Bitcoin options, with 1,180 contracts for $70K put options, was sighted Monday evening. Those options expire by April 25.

Ethereum, meanwhile, showed renewed momentum as it outpaced Solana for decentralized exchange volumes, with $63.02 billion over the latter’s $51.25 billion. Despite this, data from DefiLlama shows that Solana is catching up, with a 32% uptick over the week against Ethereum’s 14%.

Still, Dune data shows that Solana-based meme coin volume has dropped to just below $100 million from up to $390 million in January.

“Renewed optimism”

Those modest gains show “renewed optimism for the new quarter,” driven by “a market rebound as Trump’s tariff concerns have been fully absorbed,” Dominick John, an analyst at Kronos Research, told Decrypt.

Users on MYRIAD, the decentralized prediction market launched by Decrypt‘s parent company DASTAN, mirrored that sentiment. Those predicting a Crypto Fear and Greed Index score of below 32 by April 4, indicating Fear, dropped sharply from highs of over 37% at the weekend to around 17% by Tuesday morning, with the greater number of users now expecting a score of between 40 and 44.

John noted that the single-digit gains from the other majors are “riding the overall bullish momentum.” If no “fresh tariff developments or macroeconomic shocks” show up within the week, such a trend could persist.

The broad-based rally, while modest, comes after Bitcoin, Ethereum, and tech equities indexed in the S&P 500 “logged their worst quarterly performance in three years,” according to research from QCP Capital.

This meant a “sobering start to Q2” over a market that is “still searching” for its bullish momentum, QCP Capital wrote. Some risk over a “broad and aggressive regime” may also “deepen recession fears,” QCP noted.

Broader macroeconomic factors, such as President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs, are expected to draw persisting volatility by Wednesday, followed by the release of the jobless claims report on Thursday.

These numbers could trigger a broader risk-off response that would drive crypto markets alongside risk assets.