A closely followed crypto strategist is warning that top memecoin Dogecoin (DOGE) is at risk of heading to much lower levels amid the marketwide correction.

Pseudonymous analyst Cheds tells his 353,200 followers on the social media platform X that he thinks DOGE could witness a 33% corrective move if it loses a key support area.

“DOGE $0.11-$0.12 range incoming. Mark $0.16.”

In a strategy session, Cheds explains why he thinks DOGE could tumble before potentially bottoming out.

“There’s no reason to get excited [about DOGE]. It’s a bad chart. It looks like [$0.11] is going to come and test lower. [DOGE has] a really strong descending supply trend.”

At time of writing, DOGE is trading for $0.166.

Turning to Ethereum (ETH), the crypto strategist believes that the native asset of the top smart contract protocol is headed toward its high time frame support at around $1,000.

“ETH now $1,840 from $3,400 below. Probably worth a sniff when it tags the $1,200-$1,300 range.”

At time of writing, ETH is worth $1,808.

Looking at the payments altcoin XRP, Cheds says that bulls have the upper hand as long as the coin is trading above $2. But he also says that holders should consider paring back risk if XRP moves below the key price level.

At time of writing, XRP is worth $2.12.

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Dogecoin rallied nearly 10% this week, resilient in the face of the U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff war and macroeconomic developments. Most altcoins have suffered the negative impact of Trump’s announcements, DOGE continues to gain, back above $0.2058 for the first time in nearly two weeks. 

Dogecoin rallies in double-digits, what to expect from DOGE price?

Dogecoin (DOGE) hit a near two-week peak at $0.20585 on Wednesday, March 26. In the past seven days, DOGE rallied nearly 10%, even as altcoins struggled with recovery in the ongoing macroeconomic developments in the U.S. 

The largest meme coin in the crypto market could continue its climb, extending gains by nearly 11%, and testing resistance at the lower boundary of the imbalance zone between $0.24040 and $0.21465. 

The upper boundary of the zone at $0.24040 is the next key resistance for DOGE, nearly 24% above the current price. 

Two key momentum indicators, the RSI and MACD support a bullish thesis for Dogecoin. RSI is 52, above the neutral level. MACD flashes green histogram bars above the neutral line, meaning there is an underlying positive momentum in Dogecoin price trend. 

Dogecoin on-chain analysis 

On-chain analysis of the largest meme coin shows that the number of holders of DOGE is on the rise. If Dogecoin’s number of holders keep climbing or steady in the coming week, the meme coin could remain relevant among traders. 

The network realized profit/loss metric shows that DOGE holders have realized profits on a small scale. Typically, large scale profit-taking increases selling pressure on the meme coin and could negatively impact price. 

The metric supports a bullish thesis for DOGE in the coming week. Dogecoin’s active address count has been steady since mid-March, another sign of the meme coin’s resilience. 

DOGE derivatives analysis and price forecast 

The analysis of Dogecoin derivatives positions across exchanges shows that open interest is recovering from its March 12 low. Open Interest is $1.98 billion, as Dogecoin trades at $0.19. Coinglass data shows a steady climb in OI in the chart below. 

The total liquidations data shows $4.29 million in long positions were liquidated on March 27. Sidelined buyers need to watch liquidations data and prices closely before adding to their derivatives position. 

The long/short ratio on top exchanges, Binance and OKX exceeds 1, meaning derivatives traders are betting on an increase in DOGE price. 

When technical analysis and derivatives data is combined, it is likely Dogecoin price could test resistance at $0.21465 next week, if spot prices follow the cue of derivatives traders.

What to expect from DOGE 

Dogecoin wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million DOGE tokens added to their portfolio consistently between March 10 and 27, while the other two categories, holding between 10 million and 100 million DOGE and 100 million and 1 billion DOGE tokens held nearly steady in the same timeframe. 

The data from Santiment shows that DOGE’s traders holding between 1 million and 10 million tokens are rapidly accumulating, even as the token’s price rises. This supports demand for DOGE and a bullish thesis for the meme coin. 

Dogecoin ETF and DOGE catalysts 

DOGE holders are closely watching developments in Bitwise’s Dogecoin ETF filing with the SEC. The ETF filing is an effort to legitimize the meme coin as an investment category for institutional investors, as DOGE price holds steady among altcoins rapidly eroding in value. 

Bitcoin flashcrashes dragged Dogecoin down with it, to a small extent, however the meme token recovered each time and consistent gains could signal an end to DOGE’s multi-month downward trend. 

Other key catalysts for Dogecoin are positive updates in crypto regulation, passage of the stablecoin bill in the Congress, and demand for DOGE among whales and large wallet investors.