A well-known analyst made an intriguing assumption about the rise of XRP, saying that it could potentially outdo the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index.

Egrag Crypto predicted that XRP could rise by 1,000% against the gold and silver index as the analyst sees the crypto replicating a run it made in 2017.

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A Looming Crypto Run

In a post, market analyst Egrag Crypto noted that indicators are showing that the altcoin could potentially make a bull run similar to what it did in 2017, saying that it could have a big run that would allow it to outperform the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index.

“XRP / XAU: 1000% Possible Candle?” the prominent analyst said in his X account.

#XRP / #XAU: 1000% Possible Candle? 🔥

Not many analyze the #XRP / #XAU pair, but the chart looks primed for a bounce! Let’s break it down:

1⃣Understanding the Pair 🔍
🔷This analysis focuses on #XRP / #XAU, not against the US Dollar.
🔷If #XAU decreases in #USD terms, the… pic.twitter.com/5bgkp2G64U

— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) February 10, 2025

Egrag analyzed the performance of XRP against the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index by showing the XRP/XAU pair, which represents the coin’s market capitalization, versus the index.

“If XAU decreases in #USD terms, the price of XRP in terms of #XAU will increase, impacting its dollar value directly,” the market analyst explained.

Current Setup Mirrors 2017 Rally

Egrag added that the current XRP’s condition might be similar to that of its 2017 run.

“I theorize that the three green candles we saw in 2017 have been replicated, albeit with a different degree of growth. We are currently in a ranging mode; the arrow chart suggests we may stay in this range if current price action aligns,” the analyst noted.

For clarity, the gold and silver index is being traded on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, which tracks the stocks of 30 precious metal mining firms. Moreover, this index trades with the ticker XAU, which is the same ticker for gold ounces.

XRP Could Hit $28.5

Egrag said in its previous run in 2017, the pattern allowed XRP to soar by 1,000% in the XRP/XAU pair, saying that at the moment, the pair is being traded at $893.9 million.

The figure was obtained by dividing the altcoin’s current market capitalization of $149.64 billion by the current price of the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index of $167.39.

The market analyst believed that if XRP would repeat the 1,000% spike while $167.39 is the price of the index, it would push the price of the XRP/XAU pair to $9.83 billion.

With such value, the XRP market capitalization would be at $1.64 trillion, supposing the index remains at $167.39, leading to XRP being traded at $28.5.

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Altcoin Bounces Off

Egrag noted that XRP price versus XAU seems to have bounced beyond the equilibrium phase, recovering from a massive collapse this month that saw XRP slide to $1.7.

“Nice Bounce: #XRP / #XAU has bounced forcefully from the equilibrium stage. A similar bounce occurred at the 7 EMA (Exponential Moving Average), indicating bullish momentum,” the market analyst said in a post.

Featured image from Gistly, chart from TradingView

The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index now sits below 40, signaling that altcoins continue to underperform relative to Bitcoin. What’s next?

The CMC Altcoin Season Index is a tool that helps determine whether the market is in altcoin season or Bitcoin (BTC) season by tracking the performance of the top 100 cryptocurrencies over the past 90 days. When 75% or more of these altcoins outperform Bitcoin, the market is considered to be in altcoin season.

In December 2024, the index hit 64, signaling the start of altcoin season. However, since the beginning of January, the index has remained just above 40 and is now showing signs of further decline. As of Feb. 17, the index stands at 36, indicating that Bitcoin is currently leading the market.

Despite the continuous market volatility, Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable strength, staying above $96,000. The direction of the larger market may be determined by Bitcoin’s next action. Despite the overall optimistic tone, Maartunn, an analyst with CryptoQuant, seems to disagree.

Maartunn points out that the Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) indicator is signaling a bearish trend. This metric tracks Bitcoin’s movement between derivatives and spot markets. Typically, rising flows into derivatives indicate a bullish market. However, the current negative signal suggests that Bitcoin could face further resistance before a breakout.

On the other hand, altcoins have had difficulty, perhaps as a result of the increasing number of fresh launches. Liquidity tends to be spread thin when there are too many new products entering the market.

Bobby Ong, co-founder of CoinGecko, released data showing that over 600,000 tokens were created in January alone. Seemingly, investors are actively shifting their money between many different tokens, which is causing altcoin performance to suffer.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Ripple (XRP) are among the best-performing altcoins in the past 90 days, rising 735% and 143% respectively. On the flip side, many AI tokens have taken a major hit despite AI attracting the largest mindshare from crypto communities. RENDER (RNDR), Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET), and Near Protocol (NEAR) are all down more than 40% in the past 90 days.

Historically, altcoin season typically follows Bitcoin’s consolidation or decline. The next big rise for altcoins will be determined in large part by macroeconomic factors, regulatory developments, and general market conditions.