Bitcoin
No More Bitcoin Bear Markets? Fund CIO Explores New Reality
Published
3 weeks agoon
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In a new investor note published on January 29, 2025, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, questioned whether the historical four-year market cycle of Bitcoin could finally be coming to an end. His reasoning is rooted in seismic shifts in US policy toward crypto, highlighted by a recent executive order from President Trump aimed at solidifying the nation’s leadership in digital assets.
Could 2026 Buck The Bitcoin Bear Trend?
Hougan’s note begins with an explanation of the so-called “four-year cycle,” where Bitcoin has typically seen three years of substantial gains followed by a pullback. This cycle, he explains, mirrors broader boom-bust patterns in traditional markets:“The four-year cycle in crypto is driven by the same forces that drive broader cycles of growth and recession in the general economy,” he wrote.
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These expansions, fueled by technological breakthroughs or increased investor interest, often lead to over-leverage, occasionally resulting in fraud or industry-wide strain. Eventually, something “breaks” and triggers a market correction—such as the 2014 Mt. Gox collapse or the 2018 SEC crackdown on ICOs.
Hougan describes the current crypto upswing as the “Mainstream Cycle,” emerging out of 2022’s “massive deleveraging” caused by failures like FTX, Three Arrows Capital, and others. According to him, the latest bull phase took off in March 2023, when Grayscale convincingly “won the opening argument” in its legal challenge against the SEC over a spot Bitcoin ETF.
“Bitcoin was trading at $22,218 when Grayscale mounted its argument. It’s trading at $102,674 today. The mainstream era has arrived.” Once a spot Bitcoin ETF was approved and launched in January 2024, investor inflows surged, further cementing Bitcoin’s acceptance among both retail and institutional players.
The most striking component of Hougan’s analysis is his examination of last week’s executive order issued by President Trump. The order not only deemed the development of the US digital asset ecosystem a “national priority,” but it also set in motion a clearer regulatory framework for crypto.
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“Last week, President Trump issued an executive order that was so overwhelmingly bullish for the space that it’s making me wonder,” Hougan wrote, noting how the document outlines plans for a potential “national crypto stockpile” and encourages banks and financial institutions to accelerate their adoption of digital assets.
Combined with a now more welcoming stance from the SEC, Hougan believes these measures could unleash trillions in new investment over the coming years, far surpassing the hundreds of billions that an ETF-driven market was already expected to generate.
Hougan’s analysis acknowledges that Bitcoin has historically followed its pattern of eventual pullbacks after surging bull runs. But with Wall Street behemoths and major banks preparing to integrate crypto at every level, there’s a growing possibility that the market may not face the traditional plunge in 2026: “If it’s not until next year that we feel those impacts, will we really have a new ‘crypto winter’ in 2026?” he posited. “If BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is calling for $700k Bitcoin, are we really going to see a 70% pullback?”
While he concedes that leverage continues to build in the system—citing an uptick in Bitcoin-backed lending programs, derivatives, and levered exchange-traded products—he also highlights an increasingly diverse pool of crypto investors. This diversity, he argues, could dampen severe drawdowns. “My guess is that we haven’t fully overcome the four-year cycle. Leverage will build up as the bull market builds. Excess will appear. Bad actors will emerge. And at some point, there could be a sharp pullback when the market gets over its skis,” Hougan argued.
However, Hougan expects that any future market correction will be “shorter and shallower” than previous cycles. With the industry’s infrastructure now significantly more robust and mainstream participants treating crypto as a legitimate asset class, a dramatic bear market akin to those of 2014 or 2018 may be less likely. “As for now, it’s full steam ahead,” he concluded. “The crypto train is leaving the station.”
At press time, BTC traded at $105,275.
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Bitcoin
The United States Government Should Acquire 20% of the Bitcoin (BTC) Network, Says Michael Saylor – Here’s Why
Published
2 hours agoon
February 22, 2025By
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Popular Bitcoin firebrand Michael Saylor believes the US government should acquire 20% of the BTC in existence.
While speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) this week, the Strategy executive chairman argued that BTC was digital property and an important tool for the US to “own cyberspace” in the future.
“Right now you can literally buy it for a song and dance. That’s the opportunity.
The risk is that you wouldn’t want the Saudis to buy it first, or the Russians or the Chinese or the Europeans. And there’s only room for one nation-state to buy up 20% of the network, and obviously, I think it should be the United States. I think it will be the United States. It’s a way for us to enrich ourselves and emerge as a creditor nation in a matter of a decade. It’s also a way for us to ensure that we’re the economic leaders in cyberspace.”
Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy) owns the largest Bitcoin corporate treasury in the world, with 478,740 BTC worth around $46 billion at time of writing.
Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, a vocal crypto supporter, shared a clip of Saylor’s CPAC appearance on the social media platform X.
“If all we do is address the sins of the past (the national debt) it’s worth doing. But there are many reasons to take a hard look at a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $96,264.
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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.
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Bitcoin
Bitcoin Faces Serious Price Compression – What Happened Last Time
Published
8 hours agoon
February 22, 2025By
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Bitcoin has experienced a tiring price action in recent weeks, with the price struggling to set a clear short-term direction. Investors are beginning to feel impatient as BTC remains stuck in a tight range, showing no decisive breakout. The price was testing crucial supply between $98K and $100K when the market was hit by negative news, adding further uncertainty.
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On Friday, the cryptocurrency exchange Bybit suffered a massive hack, with $1.4 billion in ETH stolen. The incident triggered fear among traders, leading to increased volatility across the crypto market. However, Bybit responded quickly, working to reassure investors and prevent further market-wide panic.
As Bitcoin remains range-bound, price compression is becoming extreme, indicating that a major move could be coming soon. Top analyst Big Cheds shared an analysis on X, revealing that Bitcoin is facing its tightest daily Bollinger Bands (BBs) since August 2023, when the price was at $29.5K. Historically, such low volatility phases lead to explosive price movements, making BTC’s next move critical.
Bitcoin Price Action Signals Imminent Breakout
Bitcoin has struggled below the $100K mark since late January, with bulls unable to confirm a recovery rally despite multiple attempts. At the same time, bears have failed to push BTC below key demand levels, keeping the price above $90K. This ongoing battle between supply and demand has created an uncertain short-term outlook, leaving the market waiting for a catalyst to determine the next move.
The lack of directional clarity has led to Bitcoin consolidating in a tight range, signaling an upcoming breakout. Big Cheds’ insights on X reveal that Bitcoin now has its tightest daily Bollinger Bands (BBs) since August 2023, when BTC was trading at $29.5K.The last time BTC saw this level of price compression, the market experienced an aggressive price drop before a long accumulation phase that eventually led to a recovery.
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With BTC now coiling up for another breakout, traders remain cautious about the direction of the move. If BTC reclaims $100K, an explosive rally into price discovery could follow. However, a breakdown below $94K–$90K could trigger deeper corrections, making the next few days critical for the market.
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If history is any indication, this period of low volatility is unlikely to last much longer. The market is preparing for a major move, and traders are closely watching key resistance and support levels for confirmation. With Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges at historically low levels and long-term holders showing resilience, a breakout above $100K could spark a new wave of buying pressure.
BTC Struggles After Volatile Friday
Bitcoin is trading at $96,000 after a highly volatile Friday, where the price spiked to $99,500 before dropping to $94,800 following news of the Bybit hack. This sudden price action unsettled investors, as BTC failed to hold above critical supply levels and experienced a rapid selloff.
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Now, bulls must defend the $95K level throughout the weekend to prevent further downside. Holding this level would signal strength and allow BTC to push toward the $98K resistance, a key area that needs to be reclaimed for a breakout attempt above $100K.
However, losing the $95K mark could trigger a breakdown into lower demand levels, potentially retesting the $94K or even $90K zones. Market sentiment remains divided, as BTC is showing signs of compression, typically leading to an aggressive move in either direction.
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For now, all eyes are on whether Bitcoin can reclaim $98K and sustain momentum, or if bears will push the price into deeper corrections. The weekend could be critical in determining the next major trend, as BTC remains stuck in a tight range between $94K and $100K with increasing volatility.
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Bitcoin
One of the Most Reliable Indicators for Bitcoin Flashing Bullish Signal, Says Trader – Here Are His Targets
Published
10 hours agoon
February 22, 2025By
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Analyst and trader Kevin Svenson is leaning bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) as the flagship crypto asset hovers below the $100,000 price.
In a new video, Svenson tells his 82,400 YouTube subscribers that the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, which he considers “one of the most reliable signals for bullish pivots in Bitcoin land,” is suggesting a move to the upside for the flagship crypto asset.
The RSI is a momentum indicator that oscillates between 0 to 100 and is used to determine overbought or oversold levels.
“And now we are seeing, if you look closely, the weekly RSI is starting to peak above the downtrend line…
If we do get a close above this resistance line, well it may indicate a huge leg up for Bitcoin is underway.
Every single major uptrend for Bitcoin that we’ve had since the beginning of 2023 was marked by a weekly RSI breakout every single time. If we do in fact close with a weekly RSI breakout, I’m going to become very bullish on Bitcoin in the short, medium and long term.”
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Svenson says that if the RSI indicator successfully breaks out above the resistance line on Bitcoin’s weekly time frame, the flagship crypto could rally by up to 36% from the current level.
“So in between $124,000 – $134,000 is the target range for me on this parabolic trend…
I do expect that after we get this next major punch, this next major parabolic advance to $124,000 or maybe $134,000, there will be some sort of correction that comes alongside that where the market would then settle up and then punch up into the end of the year for a much higher target.”
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Bitcoin is trading at $98,797 at time of writing.
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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.
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