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No More Bitcoin Bear Markets? Fund CIO Explores New Reality

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In a new investor note published on January 29, 2025, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, questioned whether the historical four-year market cycle of Bitcoin could finally be coming to an end. His reasoning is rooted in seismic shifts in US policy toward crypto, highlighted by a recent executive order from President Trump aimed at solidifying the nation’s leadership in digital assets.

Could 2026 Buck The Bitcoin Bear Trend?

Hougan’s note begins with an explanation of the so-called “four-year cycle,” where Bitcoin has typically seen three years of substantial gains followed by a pullback. This cycle, he explains, mirrors broader boom-bust patterns in traditional markets:“The four-year cycle in crypto is driven by the same forces that drive broader cycles of growth and recession in the general economy,” he wrote.

These expansions, fueled by technological breakthroughs or increased investor interest, often lead to over-leverage, occasionally resulting in fraud or industry-wide strain. Eventually, something “breaks” and triggers a market correction—such as the 2014 Mt. Gox collapse or the 2018 SEC crackdown on ICOs.

Hougan describes the current crypto upswing as the “Mainstream Cycle,” emerging out of 2022’s “massive deleveraging” caused by failures like FTX, Three Arrows Capital, and others. According to him, the latest bull phase took off in March 2023, when Grayscale convincingly “won the opening argument” in its legal challenge against the SEC over a spot Bitcoin ETF.

“Bitcoin was trading at $22,218 when Grayscale mounted its argument. It’s trading at $102,674 today. The mainstream era has arrived.” Once a spot Bitcoin ETF was approved and launched in January 2024, investor inflows surged, further cementing Bitcoin’s acceptance among both retail and institutional players.

The most striking component of Hougan’s analysis is his examination of last week’s executive order issued by President Trump. The order not only deemed the development of the US digital asset ecosystem a “national priority,” but it also set in motion a clearer regulatory framework for crypto.

“Last week, President Trump issued an executive order that was so overwhelmingly bullish for the space that it’s making me wonder,” Hougan wrote, noting how the document outlines plans for a potential “national crypto stockpile” and encourages banks and financial institutions to accelerate their adoption of digital assets.

Combined with a now more welcoming stance from the SEC, Hougan believes these measures could unleash trillions in new investment over the coming years, far surpassing the hundreds of billions that an ETF-driven market was already expected to generate.

Hougan’s analysis acknowledges that Bitcoin has historically followed its pattern of eventual pullbacks after surging bull runs. But with Wall Street behemoths and major banks preparing to integrate crypto at every level, there’s a growing possibility that the market may not face the traditional plunge in 2026: “If it’s not until next year that we feel those impacts, will we really have a new ‘crypto winter’ in 2026?” he posited. “If BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is calling for $700k Bitcoin, are we really going to see a 70% pullback?”

While he concedes that leverage continues to build in the system—citing an uptick in Bitcoin-backed lending programs, derivatives, and levered exchange-traded products—he also highlights an increasingly diverse pool of crypto investors. This diversity, he argues, could dampen severe drawdowns. “My guess is that we haven’t fully overcome the four-year cycle. Leverage will build up as the bull market builds. Excess will appear. Bad actors will emerge. And at some point, there could be a sharp pullback when the market gets over its skis,” Hougan argued.

However, Hougan expects that any future market correction will be “shorter and shallower” than previous cycles. With the industry’s infrastructure now significantly more robust and mainstream participants treating crypto as a legitimate asset class, a dramatic bear market akin to those of 2014 or 2018 may be less likely. “As for now, it’s full steam ahead,” he concluded. “The crypto train is leaving the station.”

At press time, BTC traded at $105,275.

Bitcoin price
Bitcoin price reclaims $105,000, 4-hour chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com



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Why Is The Bitcoin Price Surging Today?

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Bitcoin price has risen as prices of cryptocurrencies fluctuate in preparation for President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff implementations.

The price action follows as retaliatory tariffs are going to be imposed on a number of U.S. imports that caused uncertainty in financial markets. Bitcoin had ranged between a 24-hour low of $83,939.88 and a 24-hour high of $87,300.86, resting around $86,600 at the time of writing.

Market analysts are suggesting Bitcoin could be looking for a potential breakout if certain price levels hold through the weekly close.

Tariffs And Their Potential Impact On Bitcoin Price

CoinShares head of research James Butterfill warned in a February note that tariffs would likely have negative short-term effects on the BTC Price. “Unlike gold, bitcoin has a growth component, meaning it reacts to economic trends and liquidity cycles,” Butterfill explained.

The imposition of tariffs would slow down economic growth and decrease the demand for risk assets like cryptocurrencies. This slowdown in the economy would generally lower interest in riskier investments. This is since market participants move into more secure alternatives.

Also, tariffs raise inflation, which usually results in speculations of increased interest rates. These monetary policy changes tend to put downward pressure on Bitcoin price and other cryptocurrencies traditionally.

Another concern is Bitcoin’s correlation with stock markets during periods of economic uncertainty. Tariffs could cause a temporary price drop in crypto as traditional markets respond to the changing trade sector.

Technical Analysis Points To Possible Breakout

Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted Bitcoin’s recent price movement in a tweet. He noted that “Bitcoin has increased by +$2000 in the past hour.” The analyst suggested this places BTC close to positioning itself for a future breakout beyond the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Rekt Capital emphasized the importance of the weekly close. He stated that if Bitcoin closes above $87,650, it would signal a trend shift. This level has become a key point of focus for traders watching for confirmation of Bitcoin’s next directional move.

In addition to price action analysis, Rekt Capital also commented on Bitcoin’s market dominance in a separate tweet. “Bitcoin Dominance has increased between 7-9% within one month on 4 separate occasions since mid-2023,” the analyst tweeted. The current BTC dominance is only 8% away from reaching 71%.

According to Rekt Capital, another similar growth spurt in Bitcoin’s market share would comfortably push BTC dominance to that resistance level. This increasing dominance indicates capital flowing from altcoins back into Bitcoin. This is often seen during periods when investors seek the relative safety of the largest cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin price has been showing strong movement within the past 24 hours, climbing as high as $87,300.86.

The current trading range places Bitcoin near levels that technical analysts consider important for deciding future price direction. A sustained hold above the $87,000 mark would support the bullish case. Additionally, a drop below the $84,000 level might indicate further consolidation is needed.

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Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Bitfarms secures $300m loan to fuel AI and data center growth

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Canadian Bitcoin mining company Bitfarms secured up to $300 million in private debt from Australian multinational investment firm Macquarie to fund its data center development.

Bitfarms has reached an initial agreement for a private debt facility of up to $300 million from Macquarie Equipment Capital to support its Panther Creek data center project in Pennsylvania.

In an April 2 press release, the Canadian crypto mining company said that the first tranche of the loan is $50 million, with the rest available if the company “achieves specific development milestones.”

Bitfarms CEO Ben Gagnon says the partnership with Macquarie is the beginning of its investment in the “near-term development” of Panther Creek data center, adding that amid the surging AI revolution and the growing demand for power and infrastructure, the financing “arrives at a pivotal time.”

“The maturity of each facility is two years from the date of closing. Each facility will bear interest at a rate of 8% per annum, with interest on the initial draw of $50 million paid in kind for the first three months.”

Bitfarms

Joshua Stevens, an associate director at Macquarie, pointed out that the location is “within 100 miles of New York City and Philadelphia,” which could make it appealing to high-performance computing tenants. Following the announcement, Bitfarms’ shares rose by 2.54% on Nasdaq.

The loan agreement comes just weeks after Bitfarms completed its all-stock acquisition of Stronghold Digital Mining through a stock-for-stock merger, with Stronghold shareholders receiving 2.52 Bitfarms shares for every Stronghold share they held.

As crypto.news reported, nearly 60 million Bitfarms shares and over 10.5 million warrants were issued as part of the deal, and Stronghold’s stock was delisted from Nasdaq and ceased trading.



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Bitcoin Price Struggling but Short-Term Holders Might Be Setting the Stage for $150K

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Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname – HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.

Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think’s probably unfeasible, I’ve done already a hundredfold.”

PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.



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