El Salvador, the Central American nation that adopted Bitcoin (BTC) as a legal tender in September last year, has delayed the launch of its billion-dollar Bitcoin bond again.
The Bitcoin bond, also known as the “Volcanic bond” or Volcanic token, was first announced in November 2021 as a way to issue tokenized bonds and raise $1 billion in return from investors. The fundraiser will then be used to build a “Bitcoin City” and buy more BTC.
The bond was set to be issued in the first quarter of 2022 but was postponed to September in the wake of unfavorable market conditions and geopolitical crises. However, earlier this week, Bitfinex and Tether chief technology officer Paolo Ardoino revealed that the Bitcoin bond will be delayed again to the end of the year.
Ardoino, in an exclusive conversation with the Cointelegraph, revealed that the current delay in the launch could be attributed to the internal security issues where the nation’s security forces have had to confront the scourge of gang violence in the country. This has diverted the focus of government resources, and “The delay in the launch of the Volcano Token has to be viewed in this context.”
Bitfinex is the key infrastructure partner of the El Salvador government responsible for processing transactions from the sale of Volcanic tokens. However, Bitfinex must acquire a license of issuance from the government first, which would be granted after the passing of the digital securities bill slated for September.
Ardoino confirmed that the final draft of the bill is ready, and they are expecting the bill to be passed in the next couple of weeks, given President Nayib Bukele’s party holds a majority. He said:
We are confident that the law will obtain approval from Congress in the coming weeks, assuming that the country has the necessary stability for such legislation to pass.”
Bitfinex Securities El Salvador, S.A. de C.V. “will apply for a license to operate under the El Salvador digital securities regulatory framework once this is passed into law,” he added.
While several reports and market pundits have blamed waning investor interest and the current downturn in the crypto market, Ardoino believes the idea behind the Bitcoin bond would garner investors’ interest irrespective of the market conditions.
Related: El Salvador’s ‘My First Bitcoin’: How to teach a nation about crypto
He added that the Bitcoin bond has the potential to accelerate BTC adoption. He cited the example of meme coins and explained:
“When you consider that the meme coin, Dogecoin, was able to obtain a market capitalization of US$48 billion, there is clearly enough investor appetite in the digital token economy to support a $1 billion Volcano.”
After making BTC a legal tender on Sept. 7, 2021, El Salvador accumulated over 2,301 BTC for roughly $103.9 million. During the bull market, the profit from the investment was even used to build schools and hospitals, however, with the current downturn in the market, that BTC holding are worth about $45 million currently.
The year 2022 has proved to be unfavorable for the crypto market. The industry has been facing a long lasted bear trend, with the flagship coin, Bitcoin, nearly down 70% then its ATH of November 2021. Still, the market fear has not ruined the investors’ interest in Bitcoin. Data shows that more than half of investors continue to keep their BTC holdings even in the crypto winter.
According to the stats viewed by the blockchain analytic firm TipRank, 62% of BTC addresses have not sold their collection of BTC for a year or more. Additionally, the site data as of September 1 indicates that 32% of investors sold their BTC holdings during the previous 12 months.
The downtrends of the market brought selling pressure among investors that kept continuing at the time too. A recent report by blockchain research from glassnode noted that BTC deposits at exchanges in terms of seven-day average moving have reduced to the 2-year low at 1,921 BTCs.
Notably, this crypto winter has surpassed the bloodbaths of 2017 and 2019 in declining cryptos prices. Although the previous downtrends occurred due to a bubble burst, the current bearish trend has been caused by macro factors.
TerraLuna collapse and 22% Nasdaq sell-off generally disrupted the market sentiment. Then, the U.S. Federal Reserve appeared to control inflation with its hawkish approach and has been increasing the rates since then. And as the Fed raises rates, the market experience further sell-offs, pulling back the prices further.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
In the current market climate, Bitcoin is struggling to hold its position at over $20,000. Fed’s remarks still remain a major concern stopping the BTC prices from jumping. At the time of writing, BTC’s price stands at $20,065, down by 0.70% in the past 24 hours.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin is currently navigating the inflation environment in the context of the Feds’ unfavorable remarks. In June, the spike in the Feds rate plummeted the BTC price below $20,000, but it soon showed signs of recovery, and BTC claimed the $25,000 level.
Alternatively, the BTC price remains low in response to the latest Fed activity.
Bitcoin price is currently trading above $20,000 level. | Source: BTCUSD price chart from TradingView.com
Analysts Remain Bullish On BTC
At the same time, some industry experts see the current market climate as an opportunity to buy cryptos.
Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, opined that assets like BTC and gold would see some resistance and price rally in the year’s second half. McGlone noted;
“If Stocks Are Going Limp, Bitcoin, Gold and Bonds Could Rule 2H — The propensity for Bitcoin to outperform most risk assets and gold most commodities, may play out in 2H, particularly if the stock market keeps succumbing to FederalReserve jawboning.”
Similarly, some believe it requires an extended period for BTC to achieve its previous gains. CEO of Tallbacken Capital Advisor forecasted that Bitcoin price would see even more dumps ahead. He expects the BTC price to touch the $15,000 level and says the long-term momentum of Bitcoin has become shaky.
Featured image from Pixabay and chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to struggle at $20,000 and repeat dips under this level have led some analysts to project deeper downside in the short-term. Earlier in the week, independent market analyst Philip Swift tweeted that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index had dropped back to back to “Extreme Fear,” reflecting softening sentiment among investors.
The market is not enjoying $BTC hanging around $20k. Back into Extreme Fear today.
On Aug 29, analytics firm Delphi Digital highlighted Bitcoin open interest hitting a new record-high and said:
“The Futures Open Interest Leverage Ratio for BTC reached its highest level ever recorded at more than 3% of BTC market cap, following the market-wide collapse on August 26th.”
According to Delphi Digital, “higher values suggest that open interest is large, relative to market size. This implies a higher risk of market squeezes, liquidation cascades or delivering events.”
Bitcoin open interest. Source: Delphi Digital
Exactly what might catalyze such an event remains unknown, but any continuation of the current downtrend in stocks which saw the Dow and S&P 500 wrap up a fourth day of decline to end August at a loss could continue to weigh on Bitcoin price. Data from CNBC shows the Dow closed August down 4.1% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed the month with 4.2% and 4.6% losses.
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester also commented that she expects the benchmark interest rate to rise above 4% and she suggested that it is highly unlikely that there will be any cuts throughout the entirety of 2023. 4% is well above the Fed’s target 2.25% to 2.5% range.
Considering how crypto markets have performed since the Fed first began raising rates on July 26, 2022, and the fact that BTC and equities markets reflect a strong correlation, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a long drawn out decline from Bitcoin price over the coming months.
Related: Potential Bitcoin price double-bottom could spark BTC rally to $30K despite ‘extreme fear’
On the other hand, traders appear to still be bullish on the upcoming Merge. Ether and ETH staking-related tokens have held up relatively well since bouncing from last week’s sell-off. After dropping to $1,422 on Aug. 28, Ether has gained 11.3% and trades slightly below $1,600. Lido (LDO), the largest ETH staking service, is up 12% on the day and 32% from last week’s drop to $1.55.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
The impact of Federal Reserve policy and Bitcoin’s higher timeframe market structure suggest that BTC price is not yet ready for a trend reversal.
Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to chop below the $22,000 level and the wider narrative among traders and the mainstream media suggests that a risk-off sentiment is a dominant perspective ahead of this week’s Jackson Hole summit.
Over the three-day symposium, the Federal Reserve is expected to clarify its perspective on inflation, interest rate hikes and the overall health of the United States economy.
In the meantime, traders on Crypto Twitter continue to fantisize about a “Fed pivot” where interest hikes will be curtailed below 0.25 basis points and some form of monetary easing re-emerges, but the likelihood of the Fed adopting a dovish point-of-view in the short-term seems unrealistic, given the central bank’s 2% inflation target.
Regarding Bitcoin’s most recent price action, an old saying among traders is:
“Fade the short-term trend in favor of the long-term trend.”
From a bird’s-eye-view, BTC price is in a clear downtrend with a four-month long stretch of recurring bear flags that continue to see continuation.
Sure, the on-chain data hints that maybe price is at a bottom.
Of course, aggregate volumes and certain on-chain data looking at whale and shrimp BTC addresses may point toward accumulation.
Yeah, the open interest in BTC and Ether continues to reach record highs and this adds fuel to the bullish ETH Merge and ETH proof-of-work hard fork tokens narrative triggering a juicy short squeeze on BTC and ETH.
Any of those things can happen, but beware the narrator of those hopium-infused dreams and remember that the trend is always a good friend that a trader can lean on.
As unpleasant as it might sound, the trend is down. Bitcoin continues to meet resistance at its long-term descending trendline and the price has failed to secure resistance at key moving averages like the 20, 50 and 200-day MA.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Tradingview
Each price drop is simply creating a flag-pole, and the ensuing “consolidation” creates the flag of the bear flag continuation pattern. As the pink boxes on the daily chart shows, BTC price simply trades within a defined range before breaking below it into underlying liquidity shown by the volume profile visible range and liquidity maps.
$BTC Aggregated Optical opti example from yesterday
Essentially, there’s “nothing to see here” until price paints a few daily candles that reflect higher highs, i.e., BTC needs to clear $25,000 and close that volume profile gap in the $25,000 to $29,000 zone.
From there, one would either want to see consolidation within that new higher range, or continuation of a trend reversal where the 20-MA and 50-MA function as support. As mentioned earlier, of course there are a ton of other data points that make a strong case for why the current price range is a buy zone, but what may be true for one trader is not necessarily the case for all.
Some investors can afford to open swing longs here and lower and ride it out because they are flush and that’s part of their plan. Others have a smaller purse and can’t afford the lost opportunity cost of being locked into a red position for months on end. Traders are always encouraged to do their own research, make their own thesis and manage risk in a way that is best for their situation.
Jackson Hole is coming up and the Fed needs to continue rate hikes until inflation and other metrics are under control. Equities markets remain tightly correlated with Bitcoin price, so the tell will be whether or not SPX and DJI continue to steamroll higher, or if future actions from the Federal Reserve begin to put a damper on the recent bullish momentum.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.