Bitcoin

Here’s Where The Nearest On-Chain Support Is

Published

3 days ago

December 19, 2024

Este artículo también está disponible en español.

Bitcoin has observed a plunge during the past day. Here’s the nearest on-chain level that the asset would end up retesting if the drawdown elongates.

1 Week To 1 Month Bitcoin Holders Have Their Realized Price At $97,900

As pointed out by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr in a new post on X, the Realized Price of the 1-week to 1-month-old BTC investors is the closest support for the asset right now.

The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain indicator that, in short, keeps track of the cost basis or acquisition price of the average holder on the Bitcoin network.

When the metric’s value is lower than the spot price of the cryptocurrency, it means the investors as a whole can be considered to be holding a net amount of profit. On the other hand, it being under the BTC value suggests the dominance of loss in the market.

In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of only a particular segment of the sector is of interest: the 1-week to 1-month-old holders. This cohort includes the addresses that have been holding their coins for at least one week and, at most, one month.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows how the Realized Price of this Bitcoin group has changed over the past year:

Bitcoin STH Realized Price — Looks like the asset isn’t too far away from this level at the moment | Source: @AxelAdlerJr on X

As displayed in the above graph, the Realized Price of the 1-week to 1-month-old Bitcoin investors has been climbing up alongside the price rally. This is naturally due to the fact that the cohort’s cost basis has been getting repriced to higher levels as new investors have been purchasing at the rally highs.

Currently, the indicator’s value sits at $97,900, so these investors would be in profit at the current price. Earlier in the past day, however, the asset came dangerously close to retesting the level as its price saw a brief dip below $99,000.

The 1 week to 1 month old investors make up a section of a larger cohort known as the short-term holders (STHs). The STHs are broadly defined as the holders who bought their coins within the past 155 days.

Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell. So, the STHs, and especially the 1-week to 1-month-old segment, would contain the holders with the least amount of resolve in the sector, owing to their low holding time.

Because of how fickle they are, the STHs generally show some kind of reaction whenever their average cost basis gets retested by the Bitcoin price. This reaction may come in the form of buying when the retest occurs from above, as these holders could believe the decline to be just a ‘dip.’

As such, the Realized Price of the 1-week to 1-month-old STHs, which is below the current price, could be looked at as a support level for the cryptocurrency. The level has also already helped the asset out once this month.

So far, Bitcoin has been making a recovery from the plummet, but should the bearish momentum return, the retest of the line may be to watch for, considering the past pattern.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $102,200, down almost 3% in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin Price Chart — The price of the coin appears to have been riding an uptrend over the last few weeks | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin

Metaplanet makes largest Bitcoin bet, acquires nearly 620 BTC

Published

45 minutes ago

December 23, 2024

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Tokyo-listed Metaplanet has purchased another 9.5 billion yen ($60.6 million) worth of Bitcoin, pushing its holdings to 1,761.98 BTC.

Metaplanet, a publicly traded Japanese company, has acquired 619.7 Bitcoin as part of its crypto treasury strategy, paying an average of 15,330,073 yen per (BTC), with a total investment of 9.5 billion yen.

According to the company’s latest financial disclosure, Metaplanet’s total Bitcoin holdings now stand at 1,761.98 BTC, with an average purchase price of 11,846,002 yen (~$75,628) per Bitcoin. The company has spent 20.872 billion yen in total on Bitcoin acquisitions, the document reads.

The latest purchase is the largest so far for the Tokyo-headquartered company and comes just days after Metaplanet issued its 5th Series of Ordinary Bonds via private placement with EVO FUND, raising 5 billion yen (approximately $32 million).

The proceeds from this issuance, as disclosed earlier, were allocated specifically for purchasing Bitcoin. These bonds, set to mature in June 2025, carry no interest and allow for early redemption under specific conditions.

Metaplanet buys dip

The company also shared updates on its BTC Yield, a metric used to measure the growth of Bitcoin holdings relative to fully diluted shares. From Oct. 1 to Dec. 23, Metaplanet’s BTC Yield surged to 309.82%, up from 41.7% in the previous quarter.

Bitcoin itself has seen strong performance this year, climbing 120% and outperforming assets like the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices. However, it has recently pulled back from its all-time high of $108,427, trading at $97,000 after the Federal Reserve indicated only two interest rate cuts in 2025.

Despite the retreat, on-chain metrics indicate that Bitcoin is still undervalued based on its Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV-Z) score, which stands at 2.84 — below the threshold of 3.7 that historically signals an asset is overvalued.

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Altcoin Season

End of Altcoin Season? Glassnode Co-Founders Warn Alts in Danger of Lagging Behind After Last Week’s Correction

Published

4 hours ago

December 23, 2024

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The creators of the crypto analytics firm Glassnode are warning that altcoins could lose all bullish momentum following last week’s market correction.

Jan Happel and Yann Allemann, who go by the handle Negentropic on the social media platform X, tell their 63,400 followers that “altcoin season,” which they say began in late November, could come to an abrupt end after alts witnessed deep pullbacks over the last seven days.

According to the Glassnode co-founders, traders and investors will likely have a risk-off approach on altcoins unless Bitcoin recovers a key psychological price point.

“Is This the End of Altcoin Season?

Bitcoin dominance is surging after dipping below $100,000, while altcoins are losing critical supports. Dominance has risen and resumed its upward trend, signaling a stronger BTC environment.

If BTC stabilizes above $100,00, we might see a pump in altcoins now in accumulation zones. Until then, Bitcoin appears poised to lead, leaving altcoins lagging behind.”

The Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart tracks how much of the total crypto market cap belongs to BTC. In the current state of the market, a surging BTC.D suggests that altcoins are losing value faster than Bitcoin.

At time of writing, BTC.D is hovering at 59%.

Looking at Bitcoin itself, the Glassnode executives say long-term Bitcoin holders are massively unloading their holdings as other investor cohorts pick up the slack.

“The Board Keeps Shifting.

As BTC continues flowing out of exchanges during this dip, long-term holders are exiting forcefully, while short-term holders step in without hesitation.

Whales quietly accumulate, miners remain neutral, and selling pressure has merely reshuffled the board.

New hands are absorbing the sales.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $97,246.

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Altcoins

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Predicts Institutional Interest in Altcoins, Says 2025 the Year of Crypto Diversification

Published

20 hours ago

December 22, 2024

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Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says a wave of institutional interest in altcoins is coming next year, largely due to potential regulatory clarity and more exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

In a new interview with Bloomberg, Hougan says that institutional money is in the early stages of broadening out to other crypto assets besides just Bitcoin (BTC).

Hougan forecasts that 2025 will be the year that institutional investors will begin to incorporate more diversification in their crypto-investing strategies the same way they do in other asset classes like equities or bonds.

“You’re already seeing it broaden out actually. A lot of people were worried about the Ethereum ETFs for instance, which launched this summer and had tepid inflows.

But over the last month or so, you’ve seen billions of dollars flow into those products.

Again, the things that have happened in crypto in the past keep happening. Historically, most people enter crypto through Bitcoin, and then they discover Ethereum, and then they think about Solana. There’s no reason to assume that the institutions that came into Bitcoin won’t move on to other assets in the future.

In fact, I think in 2025, you’re going to see an explosion of interest in index space strategies that give diversified exposure to crypto. Of course, [that is] something we’ve been doing at Bitwise since 2017 when we pioneered that concept. I think 2025 is when that becomes a mainstream way to allocate to this space, the same way it is to stocks and bonds and real estate and everything else.”

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