Markets
Ethereum Volatility Set to Surge in April as Derive Flags Bearish Sentiment Shift
Published
7 days agoon
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Ethereum may be entering a period of heightened volatility, according to the latest outlook from decentralized options platform Derive, which sees signs of a breakout despite bearish indicators in the near term.
Nick Forster, founder of Derive, told Decrypt Ethereum’s implied volatility is currently near monthly lows, with 7-day and 30-day tenors sitting at 59% and 45%, respectively.
“Historically, such low levels rarely hold,” he said, adding that April could mark the beginning of a sharp upswing in Ethereum volatility.
Despite the muted volatility, Ethereum’s forward rate—a measure of expected future value—is currently below the U.S. 5% treasury bill rate, signaling weak near-term confidence.
However, Forster said that such conditions have previously preceded price spikes.
“When forward rates are this low, we often see sharp price increases in the following weeks as leveraged positions become more attractive and demand builds,” he said.
Ethereum’s circulating supply on centralized exchanges has fallen to a nine-year low, which could amplify any price reaction if demand rises.
Derive estimates a 30% probability Ethereum will dip below $1,800 by the end of May, but a 19% chance it will rally above $2,500.
Bitcoin remains more stable by comparison, with Derive predicting a 33% chance the asset falls below $80,000 by May and a 20% chance it breaks $100,000.
Meanwhile, other layer-1 tokens are gaining traction. XRP is seeing renewed interest following the SEC’s decision to drop its lawsuit against Ripple Labs, alongside potential ETF applications under review. Derive projects up to $8 billion in inflows if those funds are approved.
Solana is also seeing increased institutional signals, including a Fidelity-registered fund in Delaware that may evolve into a Solana spot ETF.
Ethereum experienced $86 million in outflows last week, compared to $724 million in Bitcoin inflows.
Short-term sentiment may favour Bitcoin, but the Ethereum Foundation’s roadmap, including Etherealize and the Pectra upgrade, could shift institutional attention back to Ethereum in the second half of 2025, Forster said.
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Bitcoin
Bitcoin Price (BTC) Rises Ahead of President Trump Tariff Announcement
Published
3 hours agoon
April 1, 2025By
admin

Recently very shaky risk assets — crypto among them — are attempting a rally on Tuesday, perhaps. buoyed by chatter that Donald Trump’s tariffs won’t be as stringent as feared.
In early afternoon U.S. action, bitcoin (BTC) had climbed to just above $85,000, ahead 2.1% over the past 24 hours. Previously really roughed up crypto majors like ether (ETH), dogecoin (DOGE) and cardano (ADA) had put in gains of roughly twice that amount.
Crypto stocks are also performing well, with bitcoin miners Core Scientific (CORZ) and CleanSpark (CLSK) jumping almost 10% on the day. Strategy (MSTR) is up 5.4% and Coinbase (COIN) 2.1%.
U.S. stocks reversed early session losses to turn higher as well, with the Nasdaq now ahead just shy of 1% for the day.
The action comes ahead of the Trump administration’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariff rollout set for tomorrow after the close of U.S. trading.
Hope?
A report from NBC News suggested the market’s most feared option — blanket 20% tariffs across the board — is “less likely” to be the direction taken by the White House. Instead, according to the report, a “tiered system” of different rates or country-by-country rates could be announced.
Also maybe helping is what appears to be the first acknowledgement that the administration is aware of the market tumult resulting from all the tariff chatter. Speaking today at her daily briefing, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that there were legitimate concerns about market swings.
Meanwhile, Israel’s Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich announced on Tuesday that a process had been launched to get rid of tariffs on U.S. imports in that country.
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Dogecoin
Dogecoin, Cardano Lead Gains as Crypto Majors Rally
Published
9 hours agoon
April 1, 2025By
admin

Six of the top eight cryptocurrencies by market cap have seen modest gains Tuesday morning, with crypto majors led by Dogecoin and Cardano (ADA) notching gains of up to 5.2% and 5.9% each.
Data on CoinGecko also shows green over the past 24 hours across Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, and Solana. Charts show Bitcoin gaining 2.5%, Ethereum up 3.7%, with BNB and Solana up 2.5% and 3.3% respectively.
Notably, some $1 million in bearish Bitcoin options, with 1,180 contracts for $70K put options, was sighted Monday evening. Those options expire by April 25.
Ethereum, meanwhile, showed renewed momentum as it outpaced Solana for decentralized exchange volumes, with $63.02 billion over the latter’s $51.25 billion. Despite this, data from DefiLlama shows that Solana is catching up, with a 32% uptick over the week against Ethereum’s 14%.
Still, Dune data shows that Solana-based meme coin volume has dropped to just below $100 million from up to $390 million in January.
“Renewed optimism”
Those modest gains show “renewed optimism for the new quarter,” driven by “a market rebound as Trump’s tariff concerns have been fully absorbed,” Dominick John, an analyst at Kronos Research, told Decrypt.
Users on MYRIAD, the decentralized prediction market launched by Decrypt‘s parent company DASTAN, mirrored that sentiment. Those predicting a Crypto Fear and Greed Index score of below 32 by April 4, indicating Fear, dropped sharply from highs of over 37% at the weekend to around 17% by Tuesday morning, with the greater number of users now expecting a score of between 40 and 44.
John noted that the single-digit gains from the other majors are “riding the overall bullish momentum.” If no “fresh tariff developments or macroeconomic shocks” show up within the week, such a trend could persist.
The broad-based rally, while modest, comes after Bitcoin, Ethereum, and tech equities indexed in the S&P 500 “logged their worst quarterly performance in three years,” according to research from QCP Capital.
This meant a “sobering start to Q2” over a market that is “still searching” for its bullish momentum, QCP Capital wrote. Some risk over a “broad and aggressive regime” may also “deepen recession fears,” QCP noted.
Broader macroeconomic factors, such as President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs, are expected to draw persisting volatility by Wednesday, followed by the release of the jobless claims report on Thursday.
These numbers could trigger a broader risk-off response that would drive crypto markets alongside risk assets.
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A large bitcoin (BTC) options bet crossed the tape on Deribit as the first quarter drew to a close on Monday, revealing bearish sentiment from the trader behind the move.
The so-called block trade carried a premium of more than $1 million for 1,180 contracts of the $70,000 put option expiring April 25, according to data tracked by Amberdata.
A put option gives the purchaser the right, but not the obligation, to sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price at a later date. A put buyer is essentially bearish on the market, in this case, anticipating a price drop to below $70,000 from the current $84,000.
A block trade is a large, privately negotiated transaction executed outside the public market, typically by institutions, to avoid affecting the going market rate.
Other notable trades included a put ratio spread, featuring long positions in the $75,000 strike put and double short positions in the $70,000 put; and a risk reversal, involving a long position in the $90,000 call and a short position in the $70,000 put, as Pelion Capital founder Tony Stewart noted.

The bearish flow in the $70,000 put follows purchases of put options expiring April 4 in the $78,000 to $85,000 range last week and increased demand for the $76,000 put option expiring on April 25.
Broadly speaking, BTC puts are trading at a premium to calls, exhibiting downside sentiment out to the May-end expiry, as evident from the negative values in risk reversals.

The bias for puts offering downside protection likely reflects investor anxiety surrounding President Donald Trump’s expected reciprocal tariffs announcement on Wednesday. An aggressive move could weigh on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
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