Bitcoin

Bitcoin faces 70% odds of another drop as April tariff fears shake markets, Nansen says

Published

5 days ago

March 27, 2025

As the risk of tariff-related uncertainty persists into the second quarter, the crypto market could face another dip following the recent correction in March, analysts at Nansen say.

As the industry heads into April, Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider crypto market could be staring down another dip as uncertainty surrounding tariffs and U.S. trade policy might cause further volatility.

According to Nansen’s analysts, there’s a chance that the market may face another correction in the weeks after April 2. In fact, the researchers believe there’s a 70% likelihood that another price dip will occur after this date.

Bitcoin faces 70% odds of another drop as April tariff fears shake markets, Nansen says - 1 — US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 30d MA vs BB Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 30d MA | Source: Nansen

President Donald Trump had earlier promised to roll out new tariffs on April 2, calling it a key moment for the economy just weeks after the last round shook up markets and sparked recession worries.

In a recent interview with crypto.news, Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at Nansen, shared her outlook on the market, stating that after a brief correction following April 2, she expects the market to stabilize and pave the way for future growth.

“In my main scenario, 70% subjective likelihood, I expect another leg down in crypto prices after April 2 after we reached a local bottom in mid-March. After this second correction, I expect we will be bottoming for the rest of the year (continuation of the bull market and revisit of the ATHs for BTC).”
Aurelie Barthere

However, it’s not all doom and gloom for the crypto market. While another dip isn’t ruled out, Barthere suggests that after that correction, Bitcoin could rebound, benefiting from a supportive macro environment, including the growing adoption of crypto in the U.S. and a lack of recession signals. Still, Barthere remains cautious as for the remaining 30% “it would be if we have already bottomed or if this is just a dead cat bounce for U.S. equities and crypto,” she said.

“For the remaining 30%: it would be if we have already bottomed or if this is just a dead cat bounce for U.S. equities and crypto (in case of a recession, which is not my base case, I think the U.S. is just slowing from 3% to 1.5-2% growth).”
Aurelie Barthere

Uncertainty may last well into Q2

The tariff situation has been a significant driver of market volatility, with the U.S. policy uncertainty index reaching new highs. Trade discussions have become a key source of investor anxiety, but Nansen believes that uncertainty could peak soon.

As Treasury Secretary Bessent recently noted, many of the U.S. trading partners are already negotiating to lower their own trade barriers, which has helped to calm some fears. Even Trump recently hinted at potential tariff “exemptions” in certain circumstances. But as Barthere pointed out, while these talks may result in long-term growth benefits for the U.S., the lingering uncertainty may last well into Q2.

“Right now, I think that we are experiencing corrections within a crypto bull market. Why I see this as a bull market still: 1) Ongoing progress on crypto regulation and crypto institutionalization in the U.S., and 2) U.S. real growth has slowed but is not flashing ‘recession.’ Of course, this is my only main scenario, and I will continue to watch data and markets for signs that this is the correct reading.”
Aurelie Barthere

As Barthere put it, there’s a “50/50 chance that we’ve passed the peak of trade policy uncertainty,” adding that the true impact of these tariff negotiations might not be fully clear until mid-year. “We still see this peak uncertainty as more likely between April and June, especially with the start of U.S. tax cut package discussions,” she wrote in the research report.

The uncertainty, according to Nansen’s research, could trigger another short-term correction in both Bitcoin and U.S. equities.

No evidence of recession

Still, there’s reason for optimism. The report mentions that technicals are showing encouraging signs. “The dip is being bought, for BTC and for U.S. equities,” Barthere says, adding that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a “seven-day streak of net inflows, a first since crypto prices peaked.”

One way or the other, it’s clear that the market remains cautious. A lot of people are questioning whether the crypto bull run is still going strong or if we’re getting close to a peak. If history is any indication, times of economic uncertainty have often lined up with market downturns, making investors even more cautious.

Bitcoin faces 70% odds of another drop as April tariff fears shake markets, Nansen says - 2 — S&P Global Flash US PMI vs gross domestic product | Source: Nansen

After market sentiment hit extreme fear last week, with some investment banks raising the U.S. recession probability to 40% this year, hard economic data has eased these concerns. The latest U.S. March flash PMI report shows a 53.5 score, the highest in three months, suggesting a 1.9% annual growth rate. However, the growth for the whole quarter is lower at 1.5% due to weaker data in January and February.

Barthere emphasized that so far, there’s no hard evidence of a recession as “most of the data weakness has been in sentiment indicators, while hard economic data has held up.” She added that “there is no evidence of recession at this stage, so no evidence that we have transitioned to a bear market.”

While the coming months may bring more ups and downs, Nansen’s report suggests that the overall bull market is still in play. As Barthere puts it, the market is “likely to see a correction, but then we’ll bottom out for the rest of the year and head towards new highs.”

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin Price (BTC) Rises Ahead of President Trump Tariff Announcement

Published

3 hours ago

April 1, 2025

admin

Recently very shaky risk assets — crypto among them — are attempting a rally on Tuesday, perhaps. buoyed by chatter that Donald Trump’s tariffs won’t be as stringent as feared.

In early afternoon U.S. action, bitcoin (BTC) had climbed to just above $85,000, ahead 2.1% over the past 24 hours. Previously really roughed up crypto majors like ether (ETH), dogecoin (DOGE) and cardano (ADA) had put in gains of roughly twice that amount.

Crypto stocks are also performing well, with bitcoin miners Core Scientific (CORZ) and CleanSpark (CLSK) jumping almost 10% on the day. Strategy (MSTR) is up 5.4% and Coinbase (COIN) 2.1%.

U.S. stocks reversed early session losses to turn higher as well, with the Nasdaq now ahead just shy of 1% for the day.

The action comes ahead of the Trump administration’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariff rollout set for tomorrow after the close of U.S. trading.

Hope?

A report from NBC News suggested the market’s most feared option — blanket 20% tariffs across the board — is “less likely” to be the direction taken by the White House. Instead, according to the report, a “tiered system” of different rates or country-by-country rates could be announced.

Also maybe helping is what appears to be the first acknowledgement that the administration is aware of the market tumult resulting from all the tariff chatter. Speaking today at her daily briefing, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that there were legitimate concerns about market swings.

Meanwhile, Israel’s Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich announced on Tuesday that a process had been launched to get rid of tariffs on U.S. imports in that country.

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Bitcoin And Altcoins Fischer Transform Indicator Turn Bearish For The First Time Since 2021

Published

5 hours ago

April 1, 2025

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Technical expert Tony Severino has warned that the Bitcoin and altcoins Fischer Transform indicator has flipped bearish for the first time since 2021. The analyst also revealed the implications of this development and how exactly it could impact these crypto assets.

Bitcoin And Altcoins Fischer Transform Indicator Turns Bearish

In an X post, Severino revealed that the total crypto market cap 12-week Fisher Transform has flipped bearish for the first time since December 2021. Before then, the indicator had flipped bearish in January 2018. In 2021 and 2018, the total crypto market cap dropped 66% and 82%, respectively. This provides a bearish outlook for Bitcoin and altcoins, suggesting they could suffer a massive crash soon enough.

In another X post, the technical expert revealed that Bitcoin’s 12-week Fischer Transform has also flipped bearish. Severino noted that this indicator converts prices into a Gaussian normal distribution to smooth out price data and filter out noise. In the process, it helps generate clear signals that help pinpoint major market turning points.

Severino asserted that this indicator on the 12-week timeframe has never missed a top or bottom call, indicating that Bitcoin and altcoins may have indeed topped out. The expert has been warning for a while now that the Bitcoin top might be in and that a massive crash could be on the horizon for the flagship crypto.

He recently alluded to the Elliott Wave Theory and market cycles to explain why he is no longer bullish on Bitcoin and altcoins. He also highlighted other indicators, such as the Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) and Average Directional Index (ADX), to show that BTC’s bullish momentum is fading. The expert also warned that a sell signal could send BTC into a Supertrend DownTrend, with the flagship crypto dropping to as low as $22,000.

A Different Perspective For BTC

Crypto analyst Kevin Capital has provided a different perspective on Bitcoin’s price action. While noting that BTC is in a correctional phase, he affirmed that it will soon be over. Kevin Capital claimed that the question is not whether this phase will end. Instead, it is about how strong Bitcoin’s bounce will be and whether the flagship crypto will make new highs or record a lackluster lower high followed by a bear market.

The analyst added that Bitcoin’s price action when that time comes will also be trackable using other methods, such as money flow, macro fundamentals, and overall spot volume. The major focus is on the macro fundamentals as market participants look forward to Donald Trump’s much-anticipated reciprocal tariffs, which will be announced tomorrow.

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $83,000, up around 1% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

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Altcoins

279% Rally in 2025 for One Under-the-Radar Altcoin ‘Very Likely,’ According to Crypto Analyst

Published

7 hours ago

April 1, 2025

admin

A closely followed crypto strategist believes that the native asset of a layer-2 scaling solution could witness an over 3x rally this year.

Pseudonymous analyst Inmortal tells his 231,000 followers on the social media platform X that he’s bullish on Mantle (MNT), noting that he believes the altcoin has already printed a 2025 bottom at around $0.6.

According to the trader, a 279% rally for MNT this year is a high-probability scenario.

“Starting to feel like bottom is in.

Big players have been buying over the last few weeks, and it shows.

$3 in 2025 is very likely, high-conviction play for me.”

Based on the trader’s chart, he seems to predict that MNT will surge to $1.30 in the coming months.

At time of writing, MNT is worth $0.79.

Turning to Bitcoin, the trader unveils a potential path for BTC to print a durable bottom this year. According to Inmortal, BTC could temporarily drop below $70,000 before igniting the next stage of the bull market en route to a new all-time high of $135,000.

“They will try to shake you out, but this is the bottom.

Save the tweet.

BTC.”

At time of writing, BTC is trading for $82,374.

As for Ethereum, Inmortal predicts that the price of ETH may plummet below $1,500 before sparking a short-term rally toward $2,000.

“Expansions lead to retraces. Retraces lead to bounces.

Bounce soon.”

At time of writing, ETH is trading at $1,822.

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