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Bitcoin Is Up 2X But Speculators Are Underwater: Will The Sell-off Continue?

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Bitcoin is down at press time, wiping the weekend’s gains and inching closer to $60,000. If bears press on, increasing their shorts, the odds of the coin sliding below the psychological number and $56,800 remain high.

Glassnode: STHs Are In Red

As the world’s most valuable coin finds itself at a critical juncture, fast approaching $60,000, on-chain data points to weakness at spot rates.

In a post on X, Glassnode, a blockchain analytics firm, highlighted how BTC finds itself in a unique situation.

Bitcoin short-term holders are in red | Source: @glassnode via X
Bitcoin short-term holders are in red | Source: @glassnode via X

 

While Bitcoin is in green, rallying by over 100% over the last year, data shows that many short-term holders (STHs), primarily traders and speculators, are underwater. STHs are entities or addresses that bought their coins in the last 155 days or before the end of 2023.

During this time, not only did prices soar to an all-time high, meaning all coins were in circulation by mid-March 2024, but speculators were raving, expecting prices to continue soaring. However, this didn’t come to pass because no sooner had BTC breached $70,000, rising to $73,800, prices fell sharply.

Bitcoin price trending lower on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView
Bitcoin price trending lower on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView

By mid-May, BTC cratered to $56,800 before briefly bouncing to around $71,500. The failure of bulls to break $72,000, a level closely monitored by traders, means sellers have the upper hand at press time.

Glassnode’s assessment suggests that though STHs are feeling the pressure, only those who bought and HODL over the last year are in the money. With a 2X surge over the previous 12 months, BTC is technically in an uptrend, aligning with gains from the second half of 2023.

HODLers Are In The Money: Why Are BTC Whales Selling?

Other parallel data shows that long-term holders (LTHs), especially those who bought in the last five to seven years, enjoy a realized price of less than $7,300. This means that regardless of the current volatility, these HODLers are in the money and can wait for the current shake-out to end.

Amid this state of affairs, Lookonchain data shows that Bitcoin whales have been moving coins to Binance. Often, transfers to centralized exchanges are considered bearish. Therefore, the more coins sent, the more bearish the sentiment and the net negative it is on prices.

BTC whales are unloading | Source: @lookonchain via X
BTC whales are unloading | Source: @lookonchain via X

As of July 3, the analytics platform noted that one whale sent 1,023 BTC, worth roughly $62 million, to Binance. Earlier, another whale transferred 1,723 BTC, worth over $106 million, to the world’s largest crypto exchange.

Feature image from DALLE, chart from TradingView



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BlackRock’s BUIDL adds over $5m in a week despite market turbulence 

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The Ethereum-based BUIDL fund from the leading asset manager BlackRock has gulped over $5 million in assets over the past week despite the ongoing market turbulence.

Market analytics resource IntoTheBlock (ITB) revealed this in a recent disclosure, stressing that the fund has commanded considerable interest among investors. 

Launched in March on Ethereum, the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) marks the company’s first tokenized fund. It allows qualified investors to procure yields in U.S. dollars by subscribing through the fintech company Securitize. 

Notably, two months after the fund’s launch, Securitize secured a $47 million funding round from multiple investors, including BlackRock. 

The BUIDL fund allocates investments into U.S. Treasury bills, cash, and repurchase agreements. This enables investors to generate yield while maintaining their holdings as tokens on the blockchain. Despite a correlation with the crypto industry, the fund has maintained a positive path amid the ongoing market turmoil.

According to data sourced by ITB, BUIDL now boasts $491 million in assets under management (AUM) amid a sustained growth trajectory. This feat comes as the broader global crypto market lost $290 billion in July, with Bitcoin (BTC) collapsing below $57,000.

On-chain data shows that BUIDL’s AUM stood at $486.46 million as of July 2. Interestingly, this figure has since increased to $491.83 million, recent data confirms. The growth rate indicates an addition of $5.37 million in the last week despite the bearish atmosphere.

With this bullish performance, BUIDL has maintained its position as the largest blockchain-based money market fund. Notably, BUIDL surpassed the BENJI fund from Franklin Templeton to become the largest money market fund in May, when its AUM soared to $375 million. 

As such, BUIDL has recorded inflows totaling $116.83 million. Meanwhile, BENJI has only seen $33.97 million in capital inflows within the same period.





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HIVE Digital stock rallies over 9% as Bitcoin miner bolsters crypto reserves to 2.5k BTC

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Canadian Bitcoin mining company HIVE Digital has released a June financial report, revealing it has increased its reserves to 2,503 BTC stored on the balance sheet.

HIVE Digital Technologies, the Vancouver-based Bitcoin mining company, seems unaffected by the recent miner capitulation that caused Bitcoin (BTC) to plunge below the $56,000 mark.

In a Jul. 8 press release, the company revealed that as of Jul. 7, its crypto holdings on the balance sheet had increased to 2,503 BTC, a more than 2% increase compared to the prior month. In total, HIVE Digital mined 119 BTC in June, keeping the same performance as in May.

Despite recent market turbulence that saw Bitcoin plunge below the $56,000 mark, HIVE Digital appears unaffected. CEO Aydin Kilic addressed the firm’s operational expansion, noting that the remaining batch of Bitmain S21 orders “are ready to ship, and in fact have been upgraded to S21 Pro, representing approximately 1,150 S21 Pro miners from HIVE’s original order in December.” Kilic added that the latest acquisition of 1,000 S21 Pro Miners revealed in May is now “ready to ship,” with the total fleet of new rigs expected to be installed by the end of July.

“Therefore, we expect the total 2,150 pending S21 Pro miners to ship in the next week, bringing HIVE’s total operational hashrate to 5.5 EH/s once fully installed, with a global fleet efficiency of 24.5 J/TH. HIVE expects these machines to be installed before the end of July.”

Aydin Kilic

Following the release of the positive report, HIVE Digital’s shares (HIVE) soared by over 9.5% on Nasdaq, jumping to $3.34, according to data from Google Finance.

HIVE Digital’s reserve boosting comes despite massive capitulation among its rivals. As QCP analysts noted in a research report, Bitcoin miners are showing “signs of capitulation” as the cryptocurrency’s price slid below $56,000 late Jul. 5. Amid the deteriorating landscape, the hashprice mark neared “its all-time low,” a level last seen during the bear market.



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Is Ethereum Becoming Scarcer than Bitcoin on Exchanges?

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Ethereum (ETH) metrics have shown that the digital currency might be suffering from scarcity than earlier projected. According to on-chain data, Ethereum is now being accumulated at a faster rate than Bitcoin.

The Ethereum and Bitcoin Divergence

According to data insights from Leon Waidmann from BTC-Echo, Ethereum is becoming scarcer than Bitcoin. While there are metrics that show the individual performance of BTC and ETH, their correlation per exchange balances is also a crucial one.

According to the accompanying Glassnode data shared by Waidmann, the current Ethereum exchange balance is pegged at 10.189%. In contrast, that of Bitcoin comes in at 15.08%, a figure that suggests a tightening gap.

Since the conversation around spot Ethereum ETF came into the limelight, demand for ETH has grown. Investors suddenly started buying Ethereum at a frantic pace, accounting for the drain on trading platforms. The investor action is explainable, considering how Wall Street money is projected to buy Ethereum upon ETF launch.

This projection is not unfounded judging by the trend seen in spot Bitcoin ETF products. When the BTC ETF came into the market in January, top firms like Susquehanna International Group (SIG) went all out to buy the asset. The buyups played a crucial role in sending the price of Bitcoin to an All-Time High (ATH) of $73,750.07.

Despite the exchange balance for Ethereum draining fast, the impact on the price of ETH is not visible. At the time of writing, Ethereum is changing hands for $2,983.03, down by 2.31% in the past 24 hours. The coin’s 24-hour low and high trading price comes in at $2,956.99 and $3,080.11 respectively.

Revival Plans for ETH

The future growth of ETH is now hinged on the new long-awaited decision from the US SEC. After it greenlighted the 19b-4 forms for the spot Ethereum ETF application weeks ago, the wait for S-1 is near. 

Though the timeline for launch remains largely speculative, the coming 2 weeks appear pivotal. ETF Store President Nate Geraci believes the regulator will do everything it has to do to make Ethereum ETF start trading in 2 weeks.

Read More: Peter Schiff Claims Bitcoin Whales Set Up ETF Investors As “Bag Holders”

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Benjamin Godfrey is a blockchain enthusiast and journalists who relish writing about the real life applications of blockchain technology and innovations to drive general acceptance and worldwide integration of the emerging technology. His desires to educate people about cryptocurrencies inspires his contributions to renowned blockchain based media and sites. Benjamin Godfrey is a lover of sports and agriculture. Follow him on Twitter, Linkedin

The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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