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Degens Have Wagered $7 Million on President Joe Biden Dropping Out of Race

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There’s now more than $7 million wagered on U.S. President Joe Biden dropping out of the election on crypto betting site Polymarket.

And after his performance during the first 2024 Presidential Election debate against presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump, the odds that he will leave the race have spiked to 38%.

Meanwhile, the biggest political betting pool on the site—$191 million that’s being wagered on the winner of the election—now shows a 63% chance that Trump will win in November. That’s despite the fact that the former president is now a convicted felon and is still awaiting sentencing in July.

Polymarket, which raised $70 million in a new funding round earlier this year, has seen more than $328 million bet on different aspects of the U.S. election. Some of them have been downright bizarre.

There was $54,000 riding on whether Biden would close his eyes for more than 3 seconds during last night’s debate. Another saw more than $200,000 bet on whether the incumbent would soil himself while standing at the podium—the outcome of which has since been declared “no.”

There’s $23,000 bet on whether independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who CNN excluded from the debate, will win or manage to place second in any state. Bettors have also have it at 28% odds that Biden begins accepting crypto donations before August.

The uptick in betting on Biden leaving the race has coincided with increased interest in the $60 million pool for  predicting who will be named the Democratic nominee after the party’s national convention in August. Bettors currently think Biden has a 61% chance of clinching the nomination—down from 90% less than 24 hours ago.

The next most likely candidates to receive the Democratic nomination are California Governor Gavin Newsom at 16% and Vice President Kamala Harris at 8% odds. Gamblers think there’s a higher chance, at 7%, that some unnamed other candidate takes the nomination than either former First Lady Michelle Obama or former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Biden’s sometimes jilted and confusing speech during the debate has already become the subject of a Bold Leonidas cartoon, generated speculation about what mixture of supplements would have made him appear more alert, declarations that “it’s over” for him.

Trump and Biden meme coins dive

Meanwhile PolitiFi meme coin traders seem to have already seized their opportunity to cash in after what was widely perceived as a win for Trump. The entire $1 billion category—comprised of 40 different meme coins on CoinGecko—has dropped 6% in the past 24 hours.

A handful of Trump-themed coins, MAGA (TRUMP), MAGA Hat (MAGA), and Donald Tremp (TREMP), have all dropped roughly 7% since this time yesterday. But that’s nothing compared to Solana meme coin Jeo Boden (BODEN)—an intentional and goofy misspelling of Biden’s name—which has plummeted 35% in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.

The Kamala Horris (KAMA), Obema (OBEMA), and Ruburt F Kenidy Jr (KENIDY) meme coins have gained 129% in the past day.

Keep in mind that the vast majority of these political meme coins trade for pennies and are extremely volatile. That makes them especially risky investments.

Ironically enough, the largest so-called political meme coin, ConstitutionDAO’s PEOPLE governance token, doesn’t have anything to do with the election. And the DAO itself hasn’t been active since it tried (and failed) to win an auction for a copy of the U.S. Constitution in 2021. But it’s still seen a 6% bump in the past day.

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This Week In Coins: Bitcoin’s Bad Week Sinks the Crypto Fleet

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This week in Coins
Illustration by Mitchell Preffer for Decrypt.

After ten years, the Mt. Gox bankruptcy’s Bitcoin distributions have officially begun—and the crypto market is spooked.

On Friday, the price of Bitcoin collapsed as low as $53,898, its lowest price since February, according to CoinGecko. That’s a 27% drop from its all-time high of $73,700 registered in March, and the largest pullback from a local high since the asset’s bottom at $15,500 in November 2022.

Though Bitcoin’s price fell swiftly after the exchange revealed it was initiating distributions, on-chain data suggests that the pullback was far more driven by narrative than by the event itself.

“Mt. Gox wallets continue to hold in total 138,985 BTC ($7.52B),” tweeted blockchain data platform Arkham Intelligence on Friday. That means just 2,701 BTC had actually left the exchange’s wallets for repayments—and only a fraction of those coins may have been sold by recipients.

Indeed, the bearish narrative surrounding Mt. Gox has proven so overpowering that even altcoins completely unrelated to the exchange are collapsing.

While BTC has slightly recovered to $56,372—a 7% drop over seven days—Ethereum has slid way down and closed out the week at $2,989 for an 12% weekly drop. That’s despite a counter-bullish narrative for the asset surrounding Ethereum spot ETFs that could go live next week, affirming that Mt. Gox and Germany’s Bitcoin are the top concerns in crypto right now.

The top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap, excluding stablecoins, all ended the week in the red.

So what is holding up? Solana, apparently, down only 4% this week—and is actually up a modest 3% over the past 24 hours. The asset is potentially next to get the digital asset ETF treatment, with industry watchers suggesting it could happen after the U.S. federal election when crypto’s arch-nemesis Gary Gensler may lose his position at the SEC.

Speaking of the election, Solana-based political meme coins went on a rollercoaster this week around speculation of President Joe Biden potentially being replaced as the Democratic Party nominee.

The Jeo Boden (BODEN) meme coin fell 43% on the week, partially recovering after Biden promised not to drop out of the race. Regardless, Kamala Horris (KAMA)—the coin based on his Vice President—is still up 326% as crypto bettors briefly favored Kamala Harris to replace Joe Biden. The president flipped his vice president yesterday.

The lasting appeal of meme coins has also, sadly, been leveraged by scammers. Earlier this week, the $SMASH token—a meme coin inspired by UFC star Khamzat Chimaev—dumped to zero immediately after the fighter promoted it over social media, with on-chain footprints pointing to an orchestrated pump and dump.

Edited by Ryan Ozawa.

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Multicoin to Match Up to $1 Million in Solana Donations to Pro-Crypto Candidates

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In a move to bolster support for cryptocurrency-friendly politicians in the United States, crypto investment firm Multicoin Capital on Friday announced a matching campaign for donations made to the Sentinel Action Fund. 

Kyle Samani, managing partner at Multicoin Capital, revealed the initiative in a detailed Twitter (aka X) thread, emphasizing the importance of political engagement in shaping the future of cryptocurrency regulation.

The campaign, set to run for 10 days, will see Multicoin Capital matching all donations made in Solana (SOL) tokens to the Sentinel Action Fund, up to a total of $1 million. 

“We’re doing this because we realize that political engagement matters, and it starts with supporting the candidates who believe America needs to remain free for innovation,” Samani stated.

The Sentinel Action Fund, a political action committee (PAC), focuses on electing crypto-friendly candidates to the U.S. Senate. Under the leadership of Jessica Anderson, the PAC is backing conservative candidates who support responsible crypto innovation in America.

Samani highlighted the endorsement of Senator Bill Hagerty, a known champion of crypto innovation. 

“We can’t win without [get out the vote] efforts, and Sentinel Action Fund is literally laying the groundwork for a pro-crypto Senate—they are on the ground in swing states to boost turnout for pro-crypto candidates,” said Hagerty, according to Samani’s tweet thread.

The initiative comes at a crucial time for the cryptocurrency industry, with Samani claiming that “it’s clear that our industry’s future is at stake, and that we need to do everything in our power to elect pro-crypto candidates that will see sensible legislation brought to the floor.”

To facilitate donations, Multicoin Capital has partnered with Dialect to implement a donation “Blink” system, using a recently added Solana network feature, allowing for direct contributions from Twitter using Backpack wallets, with Phantom wallet support expected in the near future. 

“When you make your donation here on X, the Blink will provide all the information that is needed for FEC compliance purposes,” Samani explained.

The matching campaign aims to amplify the impact of individual contributions. 

“If you make a contribution in SOL during this period, we’ll double the impact of your contribution with our match,” Samani stated, directing potential donors to the Sentinel website. Samani also expressed gratitude to the Solana community for rapidly developing the technology to support this initiative. 

“This wasn’t possible three days ago, but several contributors across teams worked day and night to make it happen,” he noted.

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Crypto Markets Like Their Odds With Kamala Harris

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If crypto investors are any measure, Kamala Harris will replace President Joe Biden if he drops out.

Yes, the coconuts are continuing to fall from the tree for Biden following his disastrous performance at last week’s presidential debate, with confidence faltering in his ability to beat Donald Trump in the November general election. And nowhere is it more nutty than in crypto land.

On the burgeoning prediction market Polymarket, Harris’s chances of becoming the nominee surged today from 7% to a peak of 31% at midday. President Joe Biden was still the frontrunner at 58%, with Michelle Obama at 7% and California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 3%. 

There is around $75.6 million worth of bets on the line for that poll. 

For what it’s worth, in a separate poll on Polymarket, Biden’s likelihood of dropping out increased today to 45%, a 10% gain. The odds have fluctuated within 10 points since a high call of 50% on June 29, two days after the debate.

Meanwhile, $KAMA, which has become the Solana meme coin of choice to represent the vice president, saw a nice 127% pump today up to $0.00843 at 2:00 Pacific Time, according to CoinGecko, where the coin has an $8 million market cap. DexScreener shows that 1,171 unique wallets trade the coin. By comparison, $NOOSUM, a Newsom’s tribute coin with a $2.7 million market cap, was up 21.9% to $0.0043.

It almost goes without saying that $BODEN, Solana’s favorite Biden coin, continued to fall 70% since last week and was hovering at around a nickel, according to CoinGecko—a mere fraction of $TREMP, the Donald Trump coin, which is trading at around $0.55. 

Meme coins are fueled entirely by memetic energy, of course, are extremely volatile, and frequently drop to zero. If you are looking for something that will retain at least some value, there is the Kamala Harris proof coin from the Hamilton Collection, or the Future 47th, 1st Woman President coin on eBay. Either one can always come in handy for a coin toss.

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