By Marcus Sotiriou, Analyst at the UK based digital asset broker GlobalBlock
Last week there was a risk-on sentiment after the FOMC meeting where the Federal Reserve raised rates by 0.25% as expected. Bitcoin reached a high of $42,400. However, yesterday and today we saw a fall to the mid $40,000 region, as there are heightened fears surrounding the Russa/Ukraine war.
Firstly, Russia gave Ukraine a deadline to surrender Mariupol at 3am UK time, and the Russian Defense Ministry made clear anyone who chooses to remain in the city will face a military tribunal held by the Donetsk People’s Republic. Ukraine have rejected the offer to surrender. In addition, Russia now accuses “Ukrainian nationalists” of planning terrorist attacks on Ukrainian cities and foreign nationals “to blame Russia.” This is concerning as the Kremlin blames others of doing what it seeks to orchestrate. Lastly, Ukraine’s defense ministry warned that another group of Russian Wagner Group mercenaries arrived in Ukraine to assassinate the President Zelensky. These events have lead to a risk-off sentiment for global markets this morning, as the Dollar Index climbed whilst Bitcoin and equities sold off.
Amongst the war atrocities, Bitcoin and crypto have received great support from regulators worldwide in recent weeks. Ukraine legalised crypto last week as President Zelensky signed the digital assets bill into law.
Furthermore, there are reduced fears of stringent crypto regulation from the US in response to Russia potentially using crypto to evade sanctions. The secretary treasury official said that the crypto market is currently not large enough to run an economy on, and the crypto ecosystem is too underdeveloped to effectively facilitate sanctions evasion on a large scale. She added that, “while it’s growing because the use of crypto is growing, its share as a medium for illicit finance is not anywhere as large as just using cash.” This is a promising development as it demonstrates awareness and understanding of the crypto industry from the top regulators.
Senator Elizabeth Warren remains concerned though, as she introduced a bill last week “to ensure that Vladimir Putin and Russian elites don’t use digital assets to undermine the international community’s economic sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.” Despite Warren’s fears, the secretary treasury official’s expertise is promising for the industry.
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin exchange whale ratio has been going up recently, something that may be bearish for the price of the crypto.
Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio Has Been Going Up In Recent Weeks
As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the current BTC whale ratio value suggests whales are still selling large amounts.
The “exchange whale ratio” is an indicator that measures the ratio between the sum of the top ten Bitcoin transactions to exchanges and the total exchange inflows.
In simpler terms, what this metric tells is how much of the total inflows to exchanges is contributed by the whales (the ten largest transactions are assumed to be from whales).
When the value of the ratio is high, it means the whales are making up for a large part of the inflows right now. Such a trend can be a sign of dumping from these humongous holders, and hence can be bearish for the crypto.
On the other hand, low values of the metric can suggest whales are selling at a healthy rate right now. This could be either neutral or bullish for BTC’s price.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin exchange whale ratio over the last couple of years:
Looks like the value of the indicator has been going up recently | Source: CryptoQuant
As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin exchange whale ratio has been rising up in recent weeks.
The increase seems to have started around when the coin dropped below the $20k support. A large part of the market went underwater following this crash and the subsequent ramping up of dumping from whales could suggest they are in a capitulation phase right now.
The quant notes that while this heavy selling from the whales can be bearish for the crypto’s price in the short term, it could also be a sign that the bottom is coming near.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $19.4k, down 3% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 27% in value.
The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days.
The value of the crypto seems to have been going down over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Bitcoin looked to be holding above $20k a week ago or so, but during the past few days the coin has once again started moving down below the level.
Featured image from Karl-Heinz Müller on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com
Bitcoin has been taking hit after hit from bears who want to see the price of the digital asset crumble to its lowest point. This has led to struggles on the part of bitcoin to keep up its price. However, with so many events working against the crypto industry and a large number of investors pulling out of the market, the digital asset has had a hard time maintaining its price above its last cycle high.
Bitcoin Falls Below $20,000
Bitcoin’s price has now fallen below $20,000 for the third time this year with so many hurdles in between. After struggling to maintain $22,000, the bears had once again seized control, which resulted in another dip. Bitcoin’s fall to the $19,000 level carries the same implications as it has the other times but one thing that differentiates them is where the price had peaked before it made this fall.
It is not surprising given the rate at which money is moving out of the digital asset. It is nowhere near the previous bottoms of other bear markets. However, investors have been taking heavy losses due to the fact that the crash in June was one of the worst crashes ever recorded in the history of the cryptocurrency.
Reports even show that those who have held their coins for 3-5 years, who would normally still be in some profit even during a bear market are selling their coins for a 33% loss on average. Such high loss margins speak even worse for shorter-term investors who have been recording the worst losses.
For most of the market crashes, the profitability for bitcoin holders has been holding up and remained in the majority. This was due to a large number of bitcoin holders being long-term investors and the digital asset maintaining above its previous cycle peak. However, as bitcoin has dropped below $20,000, its profitability has declined drastically.
Data from IntoTheBlock puts into perspective just how much profitability has declined in the last couple of months. The number of holders in losses and profit is now at an equal percentage, with 48% on each side. The remaining 3% of holders are simply in the middle at this point.
The exchange inflows highlighted on the platform speak volumes about the sell-offs that have been happening in the space. In the last seven days, there have been $4.14 billion worth of inflows, and although outflows have surpassed this with a volume of $4.27 billion, it shows that investors are still selling almost as much as they are buying.
As for bitcoin’s price, it remains below the coveted $20,000 level. Now trending at $19,800 at the time of this writing, the digital asset is more than 71% down from its all-time high.
Featured image from US News Money, charts from TradingView.com
Follow Best Owie on Twitter for market insights, updates, and the occasional funny tweet…
With the recent trend in the crypto market, the world-leading digital asset seems to be getting attention. From the general price fall for all crypto tokens, Bitcoin is one of the assets that has seen a drastic cut in its value. BTC has plunged by over half of its value as of November 2021.
As a result, many participants in the industry have shown considerable concern and focus on the trend of BTC. Such attention to Bitcoin had invariably pushed the token to have a spike in its social dominance metric.
Data from Santiment revealed a rise in the yearly high for the BTC Social Dominance metric. The firm noted an increase in people’s interests and discussions concerning the most significant global crypto asset by market cap. It maintained that since June 2021, the Bitcoin vs. other crypto discussion ratio has skyrocketed on social media.
The rise is mainly linked to the drastic price dip as BTC recently hovers around the $20K level. This spike in social dominance is recorded historically as a positive indication for BTC and the broader crypto market. Also, the crypto bulls would benefit immensely from the rising trend.
Altcoins Have Different Sentiments
Most of the altcoins have different stories to tell. However, for Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, there are progressive strengths seen in their prices. This robust stance is due to the backing the tokens enjoy through increased whales’ transactions and new developmental additions.
But there is no significant price flows for some tokens like Ethereum, Cardano, Ripple, and Solana. Such dormancy has a solid link to the issues of insolvency and bankruptcy filing by some firms like Voyager Digital and Three Arrows Capital.
With the date for the U.S. CPI at hand, different folks have diverse opinions on the potential flow of cryptocurrency. Bitcoin and Ethereum record an increase in their discussion rates as reports expect price drops beyond support levels.
A survey by MLIV Pulse indicated only 40% of Wall Streets investors believe BTC’s price hitting the $30K level. The remaining 60% anticipate a drop up to $10,000 per BTC token.
Bitcoin Price And Sentiment Report
Through the little spike in sentiments, cryptocurrency prices significantly improved last week. As of July 8, Bitcoin prices hover through the $22,000 region. The volatility of crypto tokens is getting pronounced as the CPI date is quite close.
The current prices for BTC and ETH are respectively above $19,000 and $1,068. They indicate a significant drop on the daily chart.
BTC loses its foot ground, falls below $20,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
July 13 is the scheduled date for the U.S. June CPI data. The press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, anticipates increased inflation data since there was a rise in food prices and gasoline. But July’s experience of a drop in energy costs signifies a positive shift for the coming months.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView.com