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Investor Arthur Cheong Says Crypto May Be Mirroring S&P 500 Growth After 2008 Collapse – Here’s What He Means

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Veteran crypto investor Arthur Cheong believes that deep drawdowns and multi-year bear markets may be a thing of the past for digital assets.

The DeFiance Capital CEO tells his 169,400 followers on the social media platform X that crypto may be witnessing a coming-of-age cycle – or a period when digital assets begin to behave like the stock market.

“Nuanced take: entirely possible the crypto market is maturing and we don’t see complex wild swings with 70-80% drawdown every two years but instead a complex secular growth like what the S&P 500 went through post-2008 GFC (Great Financial Crisis).

Excluding the Covid-19 crash in 2020, the US stock market either range bound or gradually ground up where every bear calling for a major crash proven wrong but returns also increasingly concentrate on the big cap and mega caps while value and small caps remain unloved for a long time.” 

Cheong says that if his thesis plays out, future bull markets will no longer serve as a tide that lifts all boats, suggesting that most altcoins will not witness massive rallies similar to what was seen in the previous cycles.

“Similar things playing out would mean most alts are uninvestable but some winners will deliver ground-shattering returns and hopefully we get an Nvidia-like outcome every few years while most alts are gonna disappoint.”

The seasoned crypto investor also notes that altcoins will have to carve out their own paths if they want to succeed.

“Also, you can’t ignore the fact that the market is path-dependent, there is no such thing as preordained. If mass adoption happens like Telegram onboards half of their userbase to TON, how much do you think TON will be worth?” 

But for now, Cheong thinks that market conditions are about to improve for crypto. He also believes that both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are undervalued considering that they are the only two digital assets with no regulatory overhang.

“I think the market still hasn’t priced in the fact that BTC and ETH are the only two cryptos that have no uncertainty over their regulatory status and attract TradFi demand.”

Last week, blockchain development company Consensys announced the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) concluded its Ethereum 2.0 investigation, which sought to determine if the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is a security.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Bitcoin ATM installations reach 38k, below the all-time high

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The global Bitcoin ATM market has seen significant growth. There are now over 38,000 Bitcoin ATMs worldwide, up from just over 10,000 in October 2020 and down by 2,000 from its all-time high (ATH) of nearly 40,000 in December 2022.

According to data available on Coin ATM Radar, the global tally of installed Bitcoin ATMs stands at 38,279 as of the latest count.

This expansion is driven by factors such as accessibility and ease of use, profitability for operators who earn transaction fees above the Bitcoin spot price, and favorable regulatory environments in many countries that support setup and expansion. 

Additionally, Bitcoin ATMs provide enhanced privacy and security, allowing users to transact without divulging personal information and enabling direct deposits into digital wallets.

Despite their advantages, the industry faces challenges. Many operators lack the necessary experience, financial backing, or business acumen required for success, compounded by regulatory uncertainties in certain regions.

To address these issues, industry leaders emphasize the importance of public education on the benefits of cryptocurrencies and the need for reliable customer support. Building greater understanding and trust among users could encourage broader adoption of Bitcoin ATMs and digital assets.

As demand grows for convenient and secure cryptocurrency transactions, the Bitcoin ATM market is poised for further expansion. Strategic approaches and supportive regulatory frameworks could propel this industry into a pivotal role in the global adoption of digital assets.

Bitcoin holds steady at $60k

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price trajectory in 2024 has been marked by significant volatility and a bullish momentum. March saw Bitcoin achieving a new all-time high, surpassing $69,000 and briefly touching $73,000 before undergoing a correction. 

This surge was driven by pivotal events this year: regulators approved the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, and April’s halving event reduced the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

Experts anticipate a new growth cycle in the crypto market, potentially peaking between 2024 and 2025, in line with the four-year market cycle theory.

However, external factors such as global developments and regulatory changes could also influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Despite ongoing scrutiny of Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, its historical resilience suggests the possibility of a rebound.

Analysts maintain optimism regarding Bitcoin’s future price movements, with some forecasting it could surpass $80,000 in the coming years.

Over the past 60 days, the Bitcoin price has risen by 7.3%, climbing from approximately $57,000 to its current level of $61,532.



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Bitcoin Remains Bullish As New BTC Addresses Surge To New 2-Month Highs

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June was much rougher for Bitcoin than many expected at the beginning of the month. This is because the price of Bitcoin virtually declined throughout the month, leaving many investors, especially short-term holders, disappointed.

However, despite the price decline, on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin adoption is growing. New data shows the number of new Bitcoin addresses being created has surged to the highest level in two months. This growth suggests the long-term prospects for Bitcoin remain strong.

New BTC Addresses Surge To 2-Month High

Despite the price slump, the network is exhibiting a promising trend that signals future growth for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. According to Glassnode chart data initially shared on social media platform X by crypto analyst Ali Martinez, new BTC wallet addresses have risen steadily over the past week to reach 352,124, their highest level since April. 

Interestingly, the chart shows that the recent uptick in new addresses contrasts with a larger decrease in the creation of new addresses since November 2023. This new increase points to an influx of new users entering the crypto space. As more people adopt Bitcoin, demand will inevitably grow, which is a catalyst for price surges down the line.

Furthermore, Martinez suggested that the uptick in new addresses is from retail investors making a comeback. While institutional investors often drive major market moves, retail interest is crucial for Bitcoin’s mainstream adoption.

A major part of the increase in new addresses can be attributed to recent adoption in the Brazilian market. Nubank, Brazil’s biggest neobank, recently announced plans to integrate Bitcoin’s lightning network into its services. As the largest fintech bank in Latin America, this integration could potentially expose a significant portion of its 100 million customers to the digital asset.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $61,446. Chart: TradingView

What’s Next For Bitcoin?

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $61,446. The leading digital asset has lost over 10% of its market cap in a 30-day time frame and the bulls are struggling to break above $61,000. This downtrend could be attributed to a selloff by miners and many long-term holders. Specifically, around 40,000 BTC were sold by long-term holders in June. 

Bear markets are temporary. Bull runs will return. It’s just a matter of when, not if. With the second half of the year now approaching, time can only tell how the price of Bitcoin unfolds. Of course, new wallet addresses don’t directly impact price, but they are a leading indicator of growing Bitcoin adoption.

This adoption and demand, coupled with a recent decrease in the number of new Bitcoins entering the market, points to an increase in the price of Bitcoin in July.

Featured image from CNBC, chart from TradingView





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Bitcoin ‘tends to bounce back’ in July after negative June

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Crypto market analyst Ali Martinez expects a price rebound for the Bitcoin (BTC) price in July after a month of bearish momentum.

According to Martinez’s X post on Sunday, the Bitcoin price recorded an average price rebound of 7.98% in July after a “negative June.” Data shows that the BTC price plunged by 9.25% over the past 30 days. 

Bitcoin recorded a 30-day-high of $71,907 and a low of $58,554 in the mentioned timeframe. 

Moreover, data provided by Martinez shows that Bitcoin’s largest average price return of 46.81% happened in November. 

Bitcoin gained a slightly bullish momentum over the past 24 hours, rising by 0.94%. The flagship cryptocurrency is currently trading at $61,450 at the time of writing. BTC’s market cap again surpassed the $1.2 trillion mark with a daily trading volume of $13.1 billion.

Bitcoin 'tends to bounce back' in July after negative June: Analyst - 1
BTC price – June 30 | Source: Trading View

Due to the declining trading volume, lower price volatility and liquidations would be expected for Bitcoin. 

On the other hand, Billionaire entrepreneur and Bitcoin supporter Peter Thiel believes that the BTC price might not witness a dramatic rally. Thiel’s comments come while he still holds a portion of Bitcoin. 

Last year, Thiel’s Founders Fund invested roughly $200 million in Bitcoin when the asset’s price was hovering at around $30,000. 

Bitcoin’s downward momentum started on June 10 when the spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. recorded their first set of net outflows in one month. 

Last week, spot BTC ETFs saw $137.2 million in net inflows in their last four trading days. This pushed the total amount of ETF net flows past the $14.5 billion mark. 





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