The winds of change are swirling around Polkadot (DOT). After a month-long slump that mirrored a broader cryptocurrency market downturn, DOT finds itself at a critical juncture.

Technical indicators hint at a bullish reversal, with some analysts predicting a significant price surge for the interoperable blockchain darling. However, a recent spending spree by the Polkadot Foundation has cast a shadow of doubt, leaving the community divided.

Falling Wedge Hints At Breakout, Analysts Eye $9 Target

As technical analysis presents a potentially hopeful picture, DOT holders’ hope wavers. On the daily chart, a “falling wedge” pattern—historically a bullish indication—has been observed. This pattern suggests a price squeeze between converging trendlines, often culminating in a sharp breakout.

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Renowned analyst Jonathan Carter pinpoints $6.50 as the key resistance level. A decisive break above this point could trigger a surge in buying pressure, propelling DOT towards his projected profit targets of $7.75 and even $9.00.

#DOT

Polkadot forming falling wedge on daily timeframe💁‍♂️

Key resistance at $6.5 – need to break for bullish structure☝️

Consider setting profit targets at $7.75 and $9.00 levels🎯 pic.twitter.com/OwPVFaPZyD

— Jonathan Carter (@JohncyCrypto) July 3, 2024

The falling wedge pattern and increasing trading volume suggest a potential breakout is imminent. A successful breach of the $6.50 resistance could signal a significant shift in market sentiment, paving the way for a substantial price increase.

Buoying this optimism is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently hovering around 48.65. This neutral level indicates that DOT is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for further upward momentum.

Polkadot Foundation’s Spending Spree

However, a recent spending spree by the Polkadot Foundation has injected a dose of skepticism into the bullish narrative. Earlier this year, the Foundation burned through a staggering $87 million, leaving its coffers with a significantly reduced balance.

The breakdown reveals $36.7 million allocated for advertising and events, $15 million for trading platform incentives, and $23 million for development. While the Foundation maintains these investments are crucial for boosting network visibility and adoption, community members are not convinced.

Many point out that despite the hefty spending, Polkadot continues to lag behind competitors like Ethereum and Solana in key metrics like network activity, developer engagement, and total value locked (TVL).

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The spending seems excessive, especially considering the lack of tangible results, some community members on the Polkadot forum said. The blockchain needs to see a better return on investment before the Foundation throws more money at marketing campaigns, they said.

Will Spending Concerns Spook Investors?

The coming days will be crucial for DOT. If the technical indicators hold true and the price breaks above $6.50, a significant rally could be in the cards.

However, the community’s concerns about the Foundation’s spending habits cannot be ignored. If these concerns translate into a broader sell-off, the potential breakout might fizzle.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView

Cryptocurrency firm Circle has achieved a significant milestone by securing registration as an electronic money institution (EMI) in France. This move grants Circle a crucial license to operate as a compliant stablecoin issuer under the European Union’s rigorous crypto laws. 

Circle Breakthrough

According to a CNBC report, the approved license positions Circle as the first global stablecoin issuer to achieve compliance with the European Union’s regulatory framework known as Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA). 

This framework, considered a cornerstone in the EU’s approach to governing cryptocurrencies, sets out comprehensive rules and obligations for crypto companies to ensure investor protection and safeguard against market manipulation.

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Circle’s acceptance into the MiCA regulatory framework means that both its USDC and Euro Coin (EURC) tokens can now be issued within the European Union while meeting the stablecoin regulatory obligations outlined by MiCA. 

Additionally, Circle is opening up its Circle Mint service, enabling businesses to mint and redeem Circle stablecoins, to customers in France.

Expressing his satisfaction with the achievement, Jeremy Allaire, co-founder and CEO of Circle, emphasized the company’s longstanding commitment to building compliant and well-regulated infrastructure for stablecoins. He stated:

Our adherence to MiCA, which represents one of the most comprehensive crypto regulatory regimes in the world, is a huge milestone in bringing digital currency into mainstream scale and acceptance.

European Stablecoin Adoption

The EU’s MiCA law, which officially came into effect in May 2023, introduced the world’s first comprehensive regulatory framework for cryptocurrency operations. 

Last week, provisions specifically governing stablecoins were approved, imposing stringent measures on trading volume limitations for certain stablecoins, particularly those denominated in US dollars.

As a registered EMI in France, Circle can now extend its services, including the minting and redemption of USDC through Circle Mint, not only to customers in France but also to individuals and businesses across the European Union. 

This is made possible by the concept of “passporting” outlined in MiCA, which allows crypto businesses to offer services in one EU country and expand into other markets within the bloc.

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While Circle’s achievement is commendable, it should be noted that additional obligations under MiCA about crypto asset service providers will become applicable by December 30, 2024. Crypto companies will then have until July 2026 to ensure full compliance with MiCA’s requirements.

Since its launch in September 2018 by Circle and crypto exchange Coinbase, USDC has gained significant traction and now holds the position of the second-largest stablecoin globally. 

According to CoinGecko data, USDC’s circulation amounts to $32.4 billion, trailing only Tether’s USDT, which holds the title of the world’s largest stablecoin with a circulation of $112.7 billion.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin has long been a hallmark of the cryptocurrency markets, thriving on its 24/7 accessibility. Weekend trading, once a notorious breeding ground for volatility, has been especially significant in the cryptocurrency landscape.

However, a recent report by Kaiko reveals a not so rosy picture – BTC weekend trading volumes have plunged to historic lows, potentially marking a new era dominated by institutional weekday warriors.

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Bitcoin Trading Activity Takes A Nap

Kaiko’s data is straightforward: Bitcoin weekend trading activity has shrunk dramatically, dropping from a high of 28% in 2019 to a mere 16% in 2024. This dramatic decline coincides with the highly anticipated launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US. These exchange-traded funds, mirroring the behavior of stocks, can only be traded during traditional market hours.

The influence of institutional investors, who tend to favor these regulated products, is evident. The report highlights a surge in Bitcoin trading activity during the “benchmark fixing window” – the final hour of US stock market trading. This suggests institutions are shaping new trading patterns, prioritizing weekdays over the once-active weekends.

Beyond Weekends: A Multifaceted Market Transformation

The decline in weekend activity isn’t solely attributable to ETFs. The closure of crypto-friendly banks like Signature and Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023 is another contributing factor. These institutions provided 24/7 infrastructure that enabled market makers to constantly place buy and sell orders. Their absence has created a void in weekend liquidity, further dampening trading activity.

However, the changing landscape isn’t all doom and gloom. The report offers a glimmer of hope for investors seeking stability. The reduced weekend volatility could make Bitcoin a more predictable asset, potentially attracting a new wave of institutional interest. Additionally, the historical trend suggests July could be a positive month for Bitcoin, with price increases observed in seven out of the past 11 Julys.

Jitters On The Horizon?

While the weekend trading scene may be quieting down, the coming weeks look to be somewhat turbulent for the crypto market. The potential approval of Ethereum ETFs could further fuel institutional involvement and potentially impact Bitcoin’s dominance.

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The Road Ahead

The dwindling weekend trading activity signifies a potential paradigm shift in the Bitcoin market. While the once-volatile weekends may become a relic of the past, the coming months promise to be eventful.

Institutional investors are now in the spotlight, shaping new trading patterns and potentially ushering in an era of greater stability. However, this month could still introduce significant volatility, keeping investors on the edge of their seats.

Featured image from Inc. Magazine, chart from TradingView