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Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Slow Down After 700,000 BTC Selloff, Reversal Sign?

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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin long-term holder selling pressure has been running out recently after an extended selloff from the group.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Have Sold Huge In Past 4 Months

As analyst James Van Straten explained in a post on X, the long-term holders have massively reduced distribution during the last ten days. The “long-term holders” (LTHs) here refer to the Bitcoin investors carrying their coins since more than 155 days ago.

The LTHs comprise one of the two main divisions of the BTC sector, with the other cohort known as the “short-term holders” (STHs). The STHs are naturally the investors who bought within the past 155 days.

Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell at any point. As such, the LTHs represent the more committed part of the BTC market.

The STHs, on the other hand, are fickle-minded hands who may sell at the first sight of any FUD or profit-taking opportunity. As such, selling from the STHs is usually not that noteworthy. However, Selloffs from the LTHs can be something to watch for, as they rarely occur.

One way to track the behavior of these Bitcoin cohorts is through the total amount of supply they carry in their respective combined wallets. The chart below shows the STH and LTH supply trend over the past year.

Bitcoin STH & LTH Supply

How the supplies held by these two cohorts have changed during the past twelve months | Source: @jvs_btc on X

As displayed in the above graph, the supply of Bitcoin LTHs increased through most of 2023. At the same time, the supply of STHs naturally decreased.

Something to note here is that this increase in the LTH supply didn’t mean that these HODLers were buying then. Instead, some STHs bought 155 days ago and have finally held long enough to qualify for the cohort.

Thus, there is a 155-day delay between accumulation and the increase registered in the LTH supply. When it comes to selling, though, no such time lag exists, as the LTHs who transfer coins on the blockchain immediately eject from the group and become part of the STHs.

The chart shows that this trend of the supply of these diamond hands going up flipped this year, and the LTHs have been selling instead. In the past four months, these investors have distributed 700,000 BTC.

This excludes the selloff from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which has constantly been bleeding coins since the US SEC approved the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January. These coins had also matured enough to become part of the LTHs.

Recently, as the price has gone through some bearish action, the LTH supply has flatlined, implying that the selling from these HODLers has finally stopped, at least for now. Given this new trend, it now remains to be seen how BTC’s value develops from here.

BTC Price

Following the latest drawdown in Bitcoin, its price has dropped towards the $63,200 level.

Bitcoin Price Chart

Looks like the price of the asset has gone down recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.





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Bitcoin

Insight Into The Timing And Factors

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The Bitcoin price has experienced heightened volatility over the past week. After recovering from a low of $56,500, the largest cryptocurrency in the market surged to $65,500 within four days. However, it has since retraced some of its gains and is currently testing the $61,000 support level. 

Despite this volatility and the absence of strong bullish momentum, venture capital firm Pantera Capital remains optimistic about the future of BTC’s price, citing the recent Halving event as a significant factor.

Pantera Capital Projects $117,000 Price Target By 2025

In a recent investor letter, Pantera Capital revealed its Bitcoin Halving rallies model, which predicts a bottoming out of the BTC price followed by a rise through the Halving rally. 

Based on the average duration of previous rallies, the firm forecasts that BTC’s price will peak at $117,000 in August 2025. The average total duration of this cycle, encompassing pre- and post-Halving rallies, has historically been around 2.6 years, with symmetry observed across cycles.

Pantera Capital highlights the relationship between Halving events and BTC’s price. The firm asserts that if the demand for new Bitcoin remains constant while the supply of new Bitcoin is reduced by half, it will create upward pressure on the price. 

The anticipation of a price increase has also historically driven increased demand for Bitcoin leading up to Halving events. However, Pantera Capital acknowledges that the impact of each subsequent Halving on price may diminish as the reduction in the supply of new Bitcoin from previous Halvings becomes less significant.

Moreover, the firm notes that, on average, the Pantera Bitcoin Fund has nearly doubled in value for eleven years. Based on this historical performance, Pantera Capital envisions a scenario in which the price of Bitcoin reaches $117,000 by 2025.

Bullish Bitcoin Price Predictions

Renowned crypto analyst Titan of Crypto has recently taken to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to share bullish predictions for the Bitcoin price. With forecasts ranging from $75,000 to $110,000, Titan of Crypto highlights various factors and patterns that could potentially drive BTC’s growth.

According to Titan of Crypto, a price rise to $110,000 for Bitcoin is “programmed.” While the analyst did not elaborate on the specifics of this programming, it suggests a strong conviction in BTC’s potential to reach that level.

Titan of Crypto also identifies a current head-and-shoulders pattern in the Bitcoin price chart. If this pattern holds, the analyst suggests that BTC could rise to the $75,000 mark. If confirmed, this pattern could signify a bullish trend reversal and further support the projection of Bitcoin reaching higher price levels.

The analyst also highlighted $61,500 as a critical point to monitor due to the possibility of “panic selling.” The analyst suggests many market participants might react to this level, potentially increasing selling pressure

Lastly, based on his analysis, the analyst suggests a conservative price prediction of $108,000. However, Titan of Crypto believes that BTC’s price may exceed this projection, indicating a more optimistic outlook.

Bitcoin price
The 1-D chart shows BTC’s price retrace. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com



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Bitcoin About To ‘Blow Higher’ Despite This Week’s Pullback, According to Glassnode Co-Founders – Here’s Why

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The founders of crypto analytics platform Glassnode are predicting that Bitcoin (BTC) will soon soar even higher after being up 7% in the last week.

In a new thread, the co-founders of Glassnode, who go by the handle Negentropic on the social media platform X, tell their 62,900 followers that key indicators suggest Bitcoin is gearing up from a massive breakout.

The analysts say Bitcoin appears to be forming a bullish pennant pattern. They also suggest that Bitcoin is correcting to a Fibonacci retracement level, in the low $60,000 range, which often predicts a continuation of an upward trend.

“BTC still looks like it is about to blow higher! Last week’s candle was a reversal candle – a hammer with a long wick. Price moved back into the pennant structure. This candle still dominates the structure. This week’s pullback, hence, seems like a healthy correction before higher. Corrections often pull back either 50% or 61.8% of the previous impulse move.”

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Source: Negentropic/X

Looking at their chart, the analysts suggest that Bitcoin has or is about to complete a three-wave ABC correction. The Elliott Wave theory states that a bullish asset often witnesses a fresh leg up after an ABC correction of three wave impulses.

The analysts believe Bitcoin could break through the $85,000 level before the start of summer, which officially begins on June 20th.

“BTC is currently in the process of breaking the trendline of pennant and the 50-day SMA (simple moving average). When the level of $65,000-$66,000 is broken, BTC will move on to first $73,500, then $76,500, and chances are that we see $85,200 before the summer.”

Bitcoin is trading for $62,016 at time of writing, down slightly in the last 24 hours.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Analyst Benjamin Cowen Warns Ethereum ‘Still Facing Headwinds,’ Says ETH Will Only Go Up if Bitcoin Does This

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The widely followed analyst Benjamin Cowen is saying that Ethereum (ETH) is at risk of facing more downside over the coming months.

In a new video, Cowen tells his 801,000 YouTube subscribers that monetary policy is likely to negatively affect Ethereum.

“I think that ETH/USD is still facing some headwinds here, especially following the potential rejection of the spot exchange-traded fund (ETF)…

…I think the impact that people are going to feel is just from tighter monetary policy. They’re going to blame it on the spot ETF and they’re going to capitulate potentially into that.”

According to Cowen, the Ethereum could go up on one condition.

“If ETH goes up from here, it would only be due to Bitcoin going up a lot more.”

The widely followed analyst says that the Ethereum/Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) pair, on the other hand, is likely to keep falling under most circumstances based on history.

“So if Ethereum goes up, Ethereum/Bitcoin is probably going to keep going down. If Bitcoin goes sideways, Ethereum/Bitcoin is going to keep going down in my opinion. And if Bitcoin goes down, Ethereum/Bitcoin probably goes down because Bitcoin has been doing all s of things since 2022 began. In eight of 10 quarters, Ethereum/Bitcoin has gone down whether Bitcoin went up, down or sideways. Ethereum/Bitcoin generally went down.”

ETH is trading at $3,002 at time of writing.

 

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