Bitcoin Analysis
Spot Bitcoin ETF approved, but not in the US
Published
11 months agoon
By
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In the latest episode of Cointelegraph’s The Market Report, analyst Marcel Pechman discusses the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approved in the European Union, which went live on the Euronext Amsterdam exchange on Aug. 15. Despite the seemingly unconventional choice of the Guernsey regulator for its constitution, the fund’s listing on Euronext suggests a strategic maneuver, though its meager 1 million euro launch and unfamiliar management casts a shadow over its appeal.
Moving on, Pechman shifts focus to the United States Bitcoin ETF landscape, where the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has once again delayed its decision on approving a spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF, setting a potential deadline for early 2024. This recurrent cycle of postponements echoes the challenges faced over the past decade.
The lack of regulatory clarity in the U.S. cryptocurrency market underscores the SEC’s reluctance to endorse a spot crypto ETF.
Pechman also discusses Bitcoin’s price trajectory. According to Bitcoin investor Jesse Myers, breaking the $100,000 barrier is intricately tied to the block subsidy halving in mid-2024. Myers challenges the efficient market hypothesis, positing that the market will take 12 to 18 months post-halving to fully assimilate the implications.
Pechman conveys skepticism about predicting market outcomes, acknowledging many factors that can sway Bitcoin’s trajectory, including Federal Reserve decisions, banking liquidity, economic conditions and unforeseen events.
Pechman concludes by circling back to the primary drivers of Bitcoin’s value: the abundance of fiat currency and government debt. He foresees Bitcoin surpassing $100,000, but the real-world purchasing power of that sum might be diminished due to inflation.
Listen to the full episode of The Market Report on the new Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel, and don’t forget to click “Like” and “Subscribe” to keep up-to-date with all our latest content.
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Bitcoin
Is Bitcoin Rally Over? New Insights from CryptoQuant Predict a Market Downturn
Published
2 weeks agoon
June 22, 2024By
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According to the latest insight from a CryptoQuant analyst, Bitcoin might be poised for a notable price correction. This possibility of a price correction is based on major Bitcoin metrics such as the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (ASOPR), signaling a notable implication for Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Understanding ASOPR’s Role In Predicting BTC Corrections
The ASOPR, a key indicator in the crypto market, measures the profit ratio of spent outputs by comparing the value at which coins were bought to the value at which they were sold.
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According to the CryptoQuant analyst, when this ratio exceeds 1, it suggests that coins are being sold at a profit, which often correlates with bullish market conditions.
However, a critical threshold observed in historical data is when ASOPR approaches 1.08. At this point, the market tends to shift, signaling a potential onset of a correction phase.
This pattern has been consistent over several market cycles, providing a valuable tool for investors to assess the market’s health. For instance, when ASOPR climbs steadily above 1 but nears the 1.08 mark, investors might consider this an opportune moment to evaluate their positions before potential downturns.
The CryptoQuant analyst particularly noted:
Considering past instances where similar patterns were observed, there is a possibility that the current situation might follow the same (down) trend.
Another critical component the analyst mentioned in his BTC market analysis is the 200-day moving average (MA), widely regarded as a barometer for the long-term market trend.
This indicator helps smooth out price data by creating a constantly updated average price, which can be pivotal in confirming the overall market direction. A rising 200-day MA suggests a long-term uptrend, while a decline might indicate a bearish market.
According to the chart shared by the analyst, Bitcoin’s performance below this key moving average currently confirms the cautious stance suggested by the ASOPR.
![Bitcoin chart shared by CryptoQuant analyst](https://i0.wp.com/img.cryptoquant.com/64430/quicktake/WX4uB75q_c63849c12829b764067732ed76a403c5a46412e615c31261b60837a2ed0f5c70.png?resize=1280%2C599&ssl=1)
With the price hovering around $64,000, a 14% drop from its recent peak, the convergence of these indicators suggests that the market might still be in a phase of reassessment and potential adjustment.
Bitcoin Continued Stagnancy
The prediction from the metric above is quite evident, as Bitcoin’s value continues to fall despite significant positive developments within the industry.
Earlier today, Standard Chartered Plc announced the launch of a new trading desk for Bitcoin and Ethereum, marking a significant move into spot cryptocurrency trading by one of the world’s major banks.
Additionally, the Winklevoss twins, founders of the crypto company Gemini, have publicly supported Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, donating $1 million each BTC for being a “pro-Bitcoin” candidate.
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Nevertheless, these developments have not spurred any significant upward movement in Bitcoin’s price, which has seen a 1.1% decline in the past 24 hours to $63,935.
Analyst Ansem predicts that Bitcoin may not see a significant price increase until later this year, anticipating it will remain between $58,000 and $60,000 for some time.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
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Bitcoin
Analyst Reveals Bitcoin’s Bull Market Breakthrough: Here’s What You Need To Know
Published
3 months agoon
April 20, 2024By
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In a recent tweet, well-known crypto analyst Rekt Capital delved into the potential timeline for the next Bitcoin market peak, emphasizing the Halving cycle’s significant impact on building BTC’s market path.
As the Bitcoin Halving is set to occur between today and tomorrow, April 20, Bitcoin has shown less significant market movement. At the time of writing, the asset has a market price of $64,578.
Analyst: ‘When Could Bitcoin Peak In This Bull Market?’
According to Rekt Capital’s analysis, Bitcoin typically reaches its bull market peak between 518 and 546 days following a Halving event. Applying this historical timeline, the next anticipated bull market peak could fall between mid-September and mid-October 2025.
However, as disclosed by Rekt Capital, recent market trends suggest a possible acceleration in Bitcoin’s ongoing cycle compared to historical patterns, demonstrated by the cryptocurrency achieving new record levels approximately 260 days ahead of the typical schedule.
Despite this apparent acceleration, Rekt Capital noted:
Bitcoin has been experiencing a Pre-Halving Retrace for the past month or so As a result, Bitcoin has been slowing down and decelerating the cycle by 30 days thus far and counting So while Bitcoin may have been accelerating by ~260 days last month… Today this acceleration is now more close to ~230 days due to the current Pre-Halving Retrace.
Additionally, Rekt Capital introduced an alternative viewpoint termed the “Accelerated Perspective,” which factors in the duration from when Bitcoin exceeds its previous peak to the projected culmination of the bull market.
Given Bitcoin’s recent attainment of new all-time highs in March, this perspective implies that the subsequent bull market peak could happen between December 2024 and February 2025.
When Could Bitcoin Peak In This Bull Market?
Historically, Bitcoin has peaked in its Bull Market 518-546 days after the Halving (Chart 1)
This is how typical Bitcoin Halving Cycles have progressed
So if history repeats…
Next Bull Market peak may occur 518-546 days… pic.twitter.com/QXZUS7ZyjU
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 19, 2024
BTC Price Dynamics Amidst Market Fluctuations
Meanwhile, amidst recent market fluctuations, BTC is undergoing a slight recovery. At the time of writing, it had increased marginally by 1.4%, bringing its market price to above $64,000. This recovery follows a week-long decline during which Bitcoin experienced nearly a 10% downturn.
In light of these developments, crypto expert Michaël van de Poppe has shared insights into the potential implications of the impending BTC Halving event. Van de Poppe suggests a shift in focus away from Bitcoin once the halving occurs, speculating on potential changes in market narratives.
While he did not specify the exact narrative shift, Van de Poppe previously outlined expectations for the crypto market, including an anticipated emphasis on Ethereum (ETH) and projects focused on Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) and Real World Assets (RWA) post-Halving.
Expectance:
– #Bitcoin to consolidate.
– #Altcoins bouncing in their Bitcoin pairs.
– Narrative to shift to ETH and DePIN/RWA.
– Altcoin strength from in Q2/Summer.
– Corrections in Q3.It’s going to be great, just buy the dip.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 17, 2024
Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView
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Bitcoin
‘Buying The Crypto Dip Is Still Too Early’ Warns Top Analyst — Here’s Why
Published
4 months agoon
March 21, 2024By
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Amid a recent downturn in the broader crypto market, the concept of “buying the dip” has once again surfaced, tempting traders and investors with the prospect of snagging assets at lower prices. However, caution is the watchword from Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, a top analyst in the crypto space.
Thielen’s latest advisories suggest that the current market conditions may not yet be ripe for the optimistic strategy of dip purchasing.
The Basis Of Bearish Sentiment
Thielen’s recent analysis, released earlier today, underscores a bearish outlook on flagship cryptocurrencies Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), advising that it may be premature to buy the dip.
This guidance is rooted in a comprehensive approach to market analysis, combining analog models, data-driven predictive models, and objective analysis.
![Bitcoin Analog Model.](https://i0.wp.com/media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/10248879-4abc-4bd1-930a-56628283e2dc/image.png?resize=642%2C358&ssl=1)
At the heart of Thielen’s cautionary stance is a detailed report outlining the factors contributing to the firm, 10x Research’ bearish outlook on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Despite a seemingly attractive price point for these cryptocurrencies, Thielen believes the market has not yet bottomed out, suggesting further declines before any significant rally.
The report pinpoints $63,000 and $60,000 as critical support levels for Bitcoin. A breach below $60,000, Thielen warns, could precipitate a fall into the $52,000-$54,000 range.
Yet, despite these short-term bearish indicators, Thielen remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential, envisioning a climb to heights of over $100,000 within the year. Thielen noted:
Buying this dip is still too early. Technically, we still expect Bitcoin to trade below 60,000 before a more meaningful rally attempt is started. Based on the previous new high signals, we could paint a rosy picture of 83,000 and 102,000 upside targets, but for the time being, we are more focused on managing the downside.
The Crypto Market’s Critical Juncture
The current state of the crypto market reflects a tense anticipation of the upcoming central bank announcements from the US Federal Reserve.
This decision is expected to significantly influence monetary policy and, by extension, the cryptocurrency market. Particularly, insights from crypto futures exchange Blofin suggest that the outcome of this announcement could sway market sentiment substantially.
Meanwhile, the market reacts in real-time, with Bitcoin slightly increasing 2.4% in the past 24 hours but still showing a notable decline over the past week. Adding to the complexity of the market dynamics are observations from Alex Krüger, a respected figure in macroeconomics and cryptoanalysis.
Krüger attributes the recent price collapse to several factors, including market over-leverage, the negative sentiment ripple from Ethereum, and speculative fervor around certain altcoins. These elements combine to paint a picture of a market at a crossroads, with significant volatility and uncertainty ahead.
Reasons for the crash, in order of importance
(for those who need them)
#1 Too much leverage (funding matters)
#2 ETH driving market south (market decided ETF not passing)
#3 Negative BTC ETF inflows (careful, data is T+1)
#4 Solana shitcoin mania (it went too far)— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) March 20, 2024
Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView
Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
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