Bitcoin (BTC) concluded the month of March at approximately $71,300, marking a 16.6% increase from the previous month’s closing value of around $61,150. This monthly surge represents a historic milestone for BTC price action. March witnessed the seventh consecutive month of price growth for BTC, a first since its inception.

The sustained price appreciation began in Q4 2023, as market participants anticipated a high probability of BTC Spot ETFs approval in January. This anticipation was followed by the actual approval of BTC Spot ETFs in early January 2024. Throughout Q1, BTC surged from $42,300 at the beginning of the year to approximately $71,300, reflecting a 64.7% increase in price. However, in the first few days of April, BTC witnessed a decline, with the price hovering around $66,500 at the time of this writing.

The recent price growth is primarily fuelled by demand for BTC Spot ETFs, which have accumulated over $12 billion in net inflows since their inception. Last week, BTC Spot ETFs saw approximately $850 million in net inflows, followed by $85 million in outflows on April 1st and $40 million in inflows on April 2nd.

While there is still strong overall net inflow in BTC Spot ETFs, there is also evidence of reduced sustained demand and some profit-taking, leading to a slower pace of cumulative inflows compared to previous months. This is to be expected, considering that the majority of BTC Spot ETF investors are already in profit, given that BTC was priced between $40,000 and $45,000 at the time of their launch.

The upcoming BTC halving event, currently expected for April 20th, just seventeen days away, will halve block rewards for miners from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, potentially impacting mining companies. With BTC block rewards decreasing and the BTC hashrate consistently rising over the past few years, the profitability of mining farms has steadily declined, necessitating greater capital efficiency to remain viable.

This dynamic compels mining companies to optimize capital efficiency and seek cheaper electricity sources, leading to an increasing use of renewable energy in BTC mining. The BTC mining rewards mechanism inherently drives greater efficiency with each step, enhancing network security, reducing carbon emissions, and promoting research into sustainable block confirmation methods.

Historically, BTC halving events have marked significant points followed by 9-18 months of uptrend, culminating in cycle peaks. However, for the first time, BTC reached its all-time high in anticipation of the halving, indicating a departure from previous cycles. If historical patterns repeat, we may witness an uptrend for the remaining nine months of 2024, leading to a cycle peak expected between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025.

Bitcoin (BTC) wrapped up the week at approximately $65,650, registering a 5.3% decline from the previous week’s closing value of around $69,350. The week unfolded with notable volatility, particularly over the weekend, following a period of stability from Monday to Thursday. On Friday, BTC experienced a downturn, dropping to as low as $65,100, with the negative trend persisting into Saturday when it hit a weekly low of about $60,650 before rebounding and concluding the week around $65,650.

The weekend’s price drop was attributed to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with market sentiment improving after an announcement regarding a temporary halt in hostilities among the involved nations. Additionally, attention is focused on the upcoming halving, scheduled for the night between April 19th and 20th. While previous halving events have historically been followed by 9-12 months of uptrend, they have often triggered short-term “sell the news” reactions before and after the event.

The confluence of these factors likely contributed to the observed negative price action over the weekend. This short-term bearish sentiment is also reflected in the net outflow of $85 million from Bitcoin Spot ETFs during the week, signalling increased profit-taking and investor caution following the strong uptrend in both Q4 2023 and Q1 2024.

Despite the downturn, trading volumes remained robust, with BTC Spot ETFs recording a weekly trading volume of approximately $16.2 billion, averaging $3.2 billion per day. The cumulative trading volume since inception now stands at around $212 billion, with an average daily trading volume of approximately $3.3 billion.

BTC continues to demonstrate resilience compared to the broader digital assets market, with its dominance metric, that gauges the BTC market capitalisation in comparison to the whole digital assets market capitalisation, currently at 55.3%, the highest level since April 2021.

On the macroeconomic front, recent US inflation data surpassed expectations, leading to a shift in market participants’ rate cut projections for 2024. Initially, expectations were for a reduction of at least 75 basis points (equivalent to three 25-basis-point cuts) in interest rates. However, following the latest data, projections now anticipate 25/50 basis points cuts during the year, with the first cut expected in Q3 and a potential second cut towards year-end.

The continued presence of inflation levels surpassing central banks’ targets might result in a prolonged period of tighter monetary policy. This could further contribute to the short-term challenges faced by risk-on assets, as investors realign their portfolios in response to revised mid-term expectations influenced by the latest financial indicators.

Bitcoin (BTC) concluded the month of March at approximately $71,300, marking a 16.6% increase from the previous month’s closing value of around $61,150. This monthly surge represents a historic milestone for BTC price action. March witnessed the seventh consecutive month of price growth for BTC, a first since its inception.

The sustained price appreciation began in Q4 2023, as market participants anticipated a high probability of BTC Spot ETFs approval in January. This anticipation was followed by the actual approval of BTC Spot ETFs in early January 2024. Throughout Q1, BTC surged from $42,300 at the beginning of the year to approximately $71,300, reflecting a 64.7% increase in price. However, in the first few days of April, BTC witnessed a decline, with the price hovering around $66,500 at the time of this writing.

The recent price growth is primarily fuelled by demand for BTC Spot ETFs, which have accumulated over $12 billion in net inflows since their inception. Last week, BTC Spot ETFs saw approximately $850 million in net inflows, followed by $85 million in outflows on April 1st and $40 million in inflows on April 2nd.

While there is still strong overall net inflow in BTC Spot ETFs, there is also evidence of reduced sustained demand and some profit-taking, leading to a slower pace of cumulative inflows compared to previous months. This is to be expected, considering that the majority of BTC Spot ETF investors are already in profit, given that BTC was priced between $40,000 and $45,000 at the time of their launch.

The upcoming BTC halving event, currently expected for April 20th, just seventeen days away, will halve block rewards for miners from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, potentially impacting mining companies. With BTC block rewards decreasing and the BTC hashrate consistently rising over the past few years, the profitability of mining farms has steadily declined, necessitating greater capital efficiency to remain viable.

This dynamic compels mining companies to optimize capital efficiency and seek cheaper electricity sources, leading to an increasing use of renewable energy in BTC mining. The BTC mining rewards mechanism inherently drives greater efficiency with each step, enhancing network security, reducing carbon emissions, and promoting research into sustainable block confirmation methods.

Historically, BTC halving events have marked significant points followed by 9-18 months of uptrend, culminating in cycle peaks. However, for the first time, BTC reached its all-time high in anticipation of the halving, indicating a departure from previous cycles. If historical patterns repeat, we may witness an uptrend for the remaining nine months of 2024, leading to a cycle peak expected between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025.