In the dynamic world of cryptocurrency, Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, is painting an optimistic picture for the potential recovery and growth of Solana in the crypto market. Known for his adept navigation through market fluctuations, Hayes recently shed light on Solana’s positive trajectory, emerging from the shadows cast by the downfall and legal entanglements of FTX.

Solana (SOL), once the favorite of the now-convicted founder Sam Bankman-Fried, had faced uncertain speculations about its destiny in the aftermath of the FTX collapse. However, Hayes’ sanguine remarks have reignited interest in the network’s future possibilities.

With a history of accurate market predictions, Hayes divulged his investment strategy in a recent essay. Within it, he explored the potential downturn of Bitcoin (BTC) and his decision to divest some tokens to minimize losses, including Solana and Bonk tokens.

Solana Recovery Sparks Hayes’ Optimism For Strategic Altcoin Investments

Hayes envisions a robust investment in Solana and various altcoins if Bitcoin’s price dips below $35,000, signaling his confidence in Solana’s prospective recovery and growth.

I think it might be time to get back on the train fam. Maybe after a few US banks bite the dust this weekend. pic.twitter.com/SxCwK3BVYB

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) February 1, 2024

Solana’s market performance has been marked by notable price swings. Following a bullish surge in late 2023, the cryptocurrency experienced a correction in early 2024 but has showcased resilience, maintaining a price indicative of investor trust.

Hayes’ earlier bullish comments on Solana have coincided with a price uptick, adding credibility to his positive outlook. His recent commentary has sparked renewed optimism in the crypto community regarding Solana’s potential, particularly in the aftermath of the FTX catastrophe.

Fam I have something embarrassing I must admit.

I just bot $SOL, I know its a Sam-coin piece of dogshit L1 that at this point is just a meme. But it is going up, and I’m a degen.

Let’s Fucking Go!

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) November 2, 2023

Emphasizing Solana’s promise, Hayes took to his social media platforms to express his bullish sentiments, sharing a chart illustrating the cryptocurrency’s price movements. The post swiftly gained traction, proposing a strategic approach to rejuvenating the Solana market, especially in the face of potential turbulence in the U.S. banking system.

Solana currently trading at $100.8881 on the daily chart: TradingView.com

SOL Rollercoaster: From Correction To Bullish Optimism

Solana’s journey in the market has been a rollercoaster of highs and lows. Commencing from a modest position in October 2023, SOL soared to impressive heights by Christmas before undergoing a correction with the onset of the new year. Nevertheless, the digital currency has displayed resilience, charting a course that hints at potential recovery and growth.

SOL price climbs in the last 24 hours. Source: Coingecko

The former BitMEX big boss Hayes is expressing optimism about Solana’s recovery and growth potential. His bullish stance, coupled with his market acumen and past successful predictions, has reignited interest and hope within the crypto community regarding Solana’s future prospects.

Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from TradingView

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, in his latest essay, presents a foreboding prediction for the Bitcoin market in March, anticipating a severe correction of 30-40%. His detailed analysis, rooted in a deep understanding of market dynamics, outlines the complexities and driving factors behind this expected crash, respectively healthy but deep correction.

Hayes begins his discourse with a cautionary reminder of the nascent state of the crypto bull market, warning enthusiasts not to be overly carried away. “The crypto bull market is in its early stages, and we must not get carried away with our enthusiasm,” he says, highlighting the uncertain journey towards the inevitable collapse of the fiat financial system.

Why The Bitcoin Price Could Fall 40% In March

His prediction revolves around three key financial events and indicators converging in March. Hayes first points to the anticipated decline in the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) Balance to a critical level of $200 billion, a scenario he believes will trigger market anxiety about future sources of dollar liquidity. He describes this threshold as a moment of reckoning, “When this number gets close to zero… the market will wonder what is next,” underscoring the gravity of this anticipated development.

The second pivotal factor is the fate of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which is due to expire on March 12th. Hayes portrays this as a significant test for the financial system, speculating on the decision-making process of the US Treasury in the face of potential liquidity crises among banks. He articulates the market’s anticipatory stance, suggesting that “the market will start getting inquisitive many weeks before about whether or not the banks will continue receiving this lifeline.”

The final piece in Hayes’ forecast is the Federal Reserve’s meeting on March 20th, where a rate cut is expected. This decision, in Hayes’ view, is crucial for setting market expectations and influencing the dynamics surrounding dollar liquidity provision by the Fed and the US Treasury Department.

Hayes then delves deeper into his tactical trading strategy in response to these events, detailing his plans to short the crypto market using Bitcoin puts. He articulates his approach, saying, “I will look to buy a sizable put option position on Bitcoin around this time,” signaling his preparedness to leverage the anticipated market shift.

An important aspect of Hayes’ analysis is the potential impact of the US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). He argues that the anticipation of substantial fiat capital inflows into these spot ETFs could initially propel Bitcoin’s price to soaring highs. However, he warns that this upsurge could be followed by a dramatic correction, exacerbated by a liquidity squeeze.

“Imagine if the anticipation of hundreds of billions of fiat flowing into these ETFs at a future date propels Bitcoin above $60,000,” he says, illustrating the potential for a steep decline. Hayes explains that a market already heightened by ETF speculation would be particularly vulnerable to a sharp correction, potentially worsening the downturn to 30-40% in the event of a liquidity crunch.

How Hayes Will Trade This Scenario

Hayes then shifts to discuss his tactical trading decisions in response to these indicators. He shares his plan to initially short the crypto market using Bitcoin puts, followed by a return to selling US Treasury bills and acquiring more Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. In explaining his approach, Hayes states, “I will look to buy a sizable put option position on Bitcoin around this time,” indicating his readiness to capitalize on the predicted market downturn.

Furthermore, Hayes details his strategy for Bitcoin puts, explaining the rationale behind choosing puts expiring on June 28th and his approach to selecting the strike price. He emphasizes the importance of timing and market dynamics, noting, “I expect Bitcoin to experience a healthy […] correction from whatever level it has attained by early March.”

In his conclusion, Hayes contemplates various scenarios that could play out differently from his predictions. He considers the implications of a slower decline in the RRP, a potential extension of the BTFP by Yellen, or alternative outcomes of the Fed’s March meeting. He notes that each of these scenarios could lead to different market behaviors, necessitating adjustments in his trading approach.

At press time, BTC traded at $43,940.

Featured image from YouTube / What Bitcoin Did, chart from TradingView.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is outlining how capital from China could flow into Bitcoin (BTC).

In a new analysis, Hayes notes that wealthy Chinese individuals and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) use banks in Hong Kong for international dealings.

Hayes also points out that Hong Kong now has regulated crypto exchanges and brokers.

“Bitcoin is a Chinese phenomenon. Many of the largest Bitcoin miners started their operations in China. Pre-2020, when BTC/CNY (Chinese yuan renminbi) trading pairs were available, Chinese clients dominated global spot trading flows. Any wealthy coastal Chinese person knows about Bitcoin and its promise as a store of value.

They have watched the currency from its infancy until the current moment and have been active participants in its success. If there is a way to legally move cash from the mainland to Hong Kong, Bitcoin will be one of many risk assets that will be purchased.”

Hayes also says the Chinese government has spent the past few years attempting to shift the country’s economy from supply-led to demand-led by making credit more expensive. Firms have responded to this policy shift by borrowing money offshore, driving up the US dollar’s value and making credit more expensive around the globe, according to the BitMEX co-founder.

Hayes says that trend could be on the verge of reversing, however.

“That bid for dollar credit and liquidity will be removed as the Chinese banking system provides more plentiful yuan credit. 

Given that the dollar is the world’s largest funding currency, if the price of credit falls, all fixed supply assets like Bitcoin and gold will rise in dollar fiat price terms. The great part about this macro pillar of bullishness is that it doesn’t require Chinese firms and wealthy individuals to buy any Bitcoin. The fungible nature of global fiat credit will dictate that the marginal fiat dollar will flow into hard monetary assets like Bitcoin.”

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any loses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Generate Image: Midjourney