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Is Bitcoin Mispriced? Lessons From Past Volatility Slumps

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Since its inception, Bitcoin has (almost) always been the poster child for volatility. Yet, the Bitcoin price is hardly moving in any direction at the moment. But the latest data suggests a surprising twist in the tale.

As per a recent report by on-chain data provider Glassnode, “Bitcoin markets are experiencing an incredibly quiet patch, with several measures of volatility collapsing towards all-time lows.” This raises the question: Are we entering a new era of Bitcoin price stability, or is the market misreading the signs?

Historical Context For The Volatility Of Bitcoin

To truly understand the current state of the market, it’s essential to delve into the historical context. The Glassnode report notes, “It has been 842-days since the bull market peak was set in April 2021.” During this period, Bitcoin’s recovery has been more robust than in previous cycles, trading at -54% below its all-time high (ATH), compared to a historical average of -64%.

Drawing parallels with past cycles, the report highlights that both the 2015-16 and 2019-20 cycles underwent a “6-month period of sideways boredom before the market accelerated above the -54% drawdown level.” This could be indicative of a similar “boredom” phase in the current cycle.

Bitcoin cycles
Bitcoin price performance since cycle ATH | Source: Glassnode

One of the most striking revelations from the Glassnode report is the extreme volatility compression Bitcoin is currently undergoing. “Bitcoin realized volatility ranging from 1-month to 1-year observation windows has fallen dramatically in 2023, reaching multi-year lows.” This is reminiscent of four distinct periods in Bitcoin’s history, including the late stage of the 2015 bear market and the post-March 2020 consolidation following the outbreak of COVID-19.

Following the furious rally at the beginning to 2023, the price performance on both a quarterly and monthly basis has moderated. This mirrors Bitcoin’s previous cycles where the initial surge from the low is robust, but then transitions into a prolonged phase of uneven consolidation, a phase of re-accumulation.

Bitcoin price performance
Bitcoin accumulation periods | Source: Glassnode

Furthermore, the report states, “The price range which separates the 7-day high and low is just 3.6%. Just 4.8% of all trading days have ever experienced a tighter weekly trade range.” The 30-day price range is even more extreme, constricting price to just a 9.8%, and with only 2.8% of all months in BTC’s history being tighter. Such levels of price compression are rare for Bitcoin, suggesting an anomaly or a potential precursor to a significant market move.

Bitcoin 30-day range
Bitcoin 30-day range | Source: Glassnode

Derivatives Market Insights

The derivatives market, often seen as a barometer for underlying asset sentiment, is also echoing this quiet spell. “The combined Futures and Options trade volume for [BTC and ETH] are at, or approaching all-time-lows,” the report notes. This is further emphasized by the fact that “BTC is currently seeing $19.0B in aggregate derivatives trade volume, whilst ETH markets have just $9.2B/day.”

Interestingly, the options market is showing signs of a significant “volatility crush.” As per Glassnode, “Options are pricing in the smallest volatility premium in history, with IV between 24% and 52%, less than half of the long-term baseline.” This is further corroborated by the historically low Put/Call Ratio and the 25-delta skew metric, suggesting a net bullish sentiment in the market.

The crux of the matter lies in interpreting these signs. The report aptly questions, “Given the context of Bitcoin’s infamous volatility, is a new era of BTC price stability upon us, or is volatility mispriced?” Historically, periods of low volatility in Bitcoin have often been followed by significant price movements. Whether this is a calm before a storm or a genuine shift towards a more stable Bitcoin remains to be seen.

But as Tony “The Bull”, the chief chart technician at NewsBTC, has pointed out yesterday, the technical indicators are also pointing to a prolonged period of re-accumulation, meaning that the phase of low volatility is likely to continue for some time to come.

At press time, the BTC price was at $29,277.

Bitcoin price
BTC rises slightly, 4-hour chart | Source BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com



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Insight Into The Timing And Factors

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The Bitcoin price has experienced heightened volatility over the past week. After recovering from a low of $56,500, the largest cryptocurrency in the market surged to $65,500 within four days. However, it has since retraced some of its gains and is currently testing the $61,000 support level. 

Despite this volatility and the absence of strong bullish momentum, venture capital firm Pantera Capital remains optimistic about the future of BTC’s price, citing the recent Halving event as a significant factor.

Pantera Capital Projects $117,000 Price Target By 2025

In a recent investor letter, Pantera Capital revealed its Bitcoin Halving rallies model, which predicts a bottoming out of the BTC price followed by a rise through the Halving rally. 

Based on the average duration of previous rallies, the firm forecasts that BTC’s price will peak at $117,000 in August 2025. The average total duration of this cycle, encompassing pre- and post-Halving rallies, has historically been around 2.6 years, with symmetry observed across cycles.

Pantera Capital highlights the relationship between Halving events and BTC’s price. The firm asserts that if the demand for new Bitcoin remains constant while the supply of new Bitcoin is reduced by half, it will create upward pressure on the price. 

The anticipation of a price increase has also historically driven increased demand for Bitcoin leading up to Halving events. However, Pantera Capital acknowledges that the impact of each subsequent Halving on price may diminish as the reduction in the supply of new Bitcoin from previous Halvings becomes less significant.

Moreover, the firm notes that, on average, the Pantera Bitcoin Fund has nearly doubled in value for eleven years. Based on this historical performance, Pantera Capital envisions a scenario in which the price of Bitcoin reaches $117,000 by 2025.

Bullish Bitcoin Price Predictions

Renowned crypto analyst Titan of Crypto has recently taken to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to share bullish predictions for the Bitcoin price. With forecasts ranging from $75,000 to $110,000, Titan of Crypto highlights various factors and patterns that could potentially drive BTC’s growth.

According to Titan of Crypto, a price rise to $110,000 for Bitcoin is “programmed.” While the analyst did not elaborate on the specifics of this programming, it suggests a strong conviction in BTC’s potential to reach that level.

Titan of Crypto also identifies a current head-and-shoulders pattern in the Bitcoin price chart. If this pattern holds, the analyst suggests that BTC could rise to the $75,000 mark. If confirmed, this pattern could signify a bullish trend reversal and further support the projection of Bitcoin reaching higher price levels.

The analyst also highlighted $61,500 as a critical point to monitor due to the possibility of “panic selling.” The analyst suggests many market participants might react to this level, potentially increasing selling pressure

Lastly, based on his analysis, the analyst suggests a conservative price prediction of $108,000. However, Titan of Crypto believes that BTC’s price may exceed this projection, indicating a more optimistic outlook.

Bitcoin price
The 1-D chart shows BTC’s price retrace. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com



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Bitcoin About To ‘Blow Higher’ Despite This Week’s Pullback, According to Glassnode Co-Founders – Here’s Why

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The founders of crypto analytics platform Glassnode are predicting that Bitcoin (BTC) will soon soar even higher after being up 7% in the last week.

In a new thread, the co-founders of Glassnode, who go by the handle Negentropic on the social media platform X, tell their 62,900 followers that key indicators suggest Bitcoin is gearing up from a massive breakout.

The analysts say Bitcoin appears to be forming a bullish pennant pattern. They also suggest that Bitcoin is correcting to a Fibonacci retracement level, in the low $60,000 range, which often predicts a continuation of an upward trend.

“BTC still looks like it is about to blow higher! Last week’s candle was a reversal candle – a hammer with a long wick. Price moved back into the pennant structure. This candle still dominates the structure. This week’s pullback, hence, seems like a healthy correction before higher. Corrections often pull back either 50% or 61.8% of the previous impulse move.”

Image
Source: Negentropic/X

Looking at their chart, the analysts suggest that Bitcoin has or is about to complete a three-wave ABC correction. The Elliott Wave theory states that a bullish asset often witnesses a fresh leg up after an ABC correction of three wave impulses.

The analysts believe Bitcoin could break through the $85,000 level before the start of summer, which officially begins on June 20th.

“BTC is currently in the process of breaking the trendline of pennant and the 50-day SMA (simple moving average). When the level of $65,000-$66,000 is broken, BTC will move on to first $73,500, then $76,500, and chances are that we see $85,200 before the summer.”

Bitcoin is trading for $62,016 at time of writing, down slightly in the last 24 hours.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Analyst Benjamin Cowen Warns Ethereum ‘Still Facing Headwinds,’ Says ETH Will Only Go Up if Bitcoin Does This

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The widely followed analyst Benjamin Cowen is saying that Ethereum (ETH) is at risk of facing more downside over the coming months.

In a new video, Cowen tells his 801,000 YouTube subscribers that monetary policy is likely to negatively affect Ethereum.

“I think that ETH/USD is still facing some headwinds here, especially following the potential rejection of the spot exchange-traded fund (ETF)…

…I think the impact that people are going to feel is just from tighter monetary policy. They’re going to blame it on the spot ETF and they’re going to capitulate potentially into that.”

According to Cowen, the Ethereum could go up on one condition.

“If ETH goes up from here, it would only be due to Bitcoin going up a lot more.”

The widely followed analyst says that the Ethereum/Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) pair, on the other hand, is likely to keep falling under most circumstances based on history.

“So if Ethereum goes up, Ethereum/Bitcoin is probably going to keep going down. If Bitcoin goes sideways, Ethereum/Bitcoin is going to keep going down in my opinion. And if Bitcoin goes down, Ethereum/Bitcoin probably goes down because Bitcoin has been doing all s of things since 2022 began. In eight of 10 quarters, Ethereum/Bitcoin has gone down whether Bitcoin went up, down or sideways. Ethereum/Bitcoin generally went down.”

ETH is trading at $3,002 at time of writing.

 

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