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JPMorgan Chase CEO Warns Multiple Headwinds Threaten US Economy, Urges Investors To Avoid ‘False Sense of Security’

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JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon is warning against becoming complacent as he believes it is within the realm of possibility for the US economy to witness a severe downturn next year.

In a new interview with the Wall Street Journal, Dimon says the US economy is doing well this year with strong consumer spending, low unemployment and the stock market trading close to record highs.

But the JPMorgan CEO warns that the economy’s strength is mostly driven by fiscal spending, which he says will eventually lead to a resurgence of inflation. He also names five headwinds that could trigger a hard landing in 2025.

“I’m trying to say what are the range of possible outcomes? Last year and this year, I would put out the same issues: huge amount of fiscal deficit, huge amount of QE (quantitative easing).  A lot of things in the future are inflationary: the green economy, the re-militarization of the world, obviously the deficits which basically aren’t to go away as far as the eye can see and geopolitics.

All that puts me on the side of caution that things may not go as well as people expect, but the odds of a soft landing, the market kind of prices in 70%. I think it’s half of that.

As a business person, I try to be prepared for all of that, just a little cautious. It looks a little bit more like the [1970s] to me. And I point out to a lot of people, things looked pretty rosy in 1972. They were not rosy in 1973.

So don’t get lulled into a false sense of security because the today looks okay that tomorrow’s going to be okay. So just trying to separate the two.”

In 1973, the US economy entered a period of recession where it witnessed high inflation and high unemployment at the same time. The economy did not show signs of recovery until 1975.

 

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New Global Currency Designed To Ditch US Dollar, Avert Sanctions Emerging As BRICS Leaders Prepare To Meet: Report

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A group of economically-aligned nations known as BRICS is reportedly hammering out the details on a new currency designed to drop dependence on the US dollar.

South African Ambassador to China Siyabonga Cyprian Cwele says BRICS members will meet this month to discuss the specifics, reports the Chinese state-backed Global Times.

On the agenda is a debate on whether a digital currency would effectively facilitate global trade and settlement while reducing the risk of sanctions.

“The BRICS are advancing the progress of its common currency, while actively promoting the use of local currencies from member states to reduce the risks of solely relying on the US dollar…

Cwele stressed the importance of supporting the use of local currencies with open financial data sharing, while looking into digital currencies as ways to explore multiple and stable mechanisms for trade and settlement to reduce the risks such as sanction by just relying on a singular currency.”

The push for a new currency comes amid a period of expansion for BRICS, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

Last year, the organization added Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

And according to Cwele, more than 20 additional countries have now “expressed an interest” in joining.

Cwele says BRICS leaders are working to create new guidelines for adding additional countries that are non-discriminatory and address issues aside from economics.

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JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citibank Holding $7,427,000,000,000 Off-Balance Sheet in Potentially Dangerous Cocktail of Unknown Assets: Report

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JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citibank are keeping trillions of dollars in unknown and potentially risky assets off of their balance sheets, according to new data from the US government.

The new numbers – compiled by the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC) and first reported on by Wall Street on Parade – show JPMorgan Chase holds $3.227 trillion off-balance sheet, Bank of America holds $1.6 trillion off-balance sheet and Citibank holds $2.6 trillion off-balance sheet.

The Federal Reserve defines off-balance sheet activities as “quite diverse in nature” and says they may include such instruments as firm loan commitments, standby letters of credit, foreign exchange, financial futures, forward contracts, options, interest rate swap contracts and other derivative products.

Off-balance sheet accounting has been a common practice in the banking industry for years and as Wall Street on Parade notes, it played a major role in the 2008 financial crisis.

“More than other banks, Citigroup held assets off of its balance sheet, in part to hold down capital requirements… if those had been included, leverage in 2007 would have been 48:1, or about 53% higher…

Citigroup, of course, blew itself up in 2008 and received the largest bailouts in global banking history. By March of 2009, its stock was trading at 99 cents.”

In July of last year, the Federal Reserve announced a proposal that would impose higher capital requirements on banks to ensure their balance sheets are more resilient in economic downturns.

CEOs at JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, BNY Mellon and State Street argued against the proposed changes in a Senate Banking Oversight Committee hearing in December.

In a prepared statement, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said the changes would damage the banking industry and the economy at large.

“Despite zero evidence that large U.S. banks are undercapitalized today, the proposed Basel III Endgame rule, if enacted, would unjustifiably and unnecessarily increase capital requirements by 20-25% for the largest banks.

Banks would be limited in their ability to deploy capital in the times we’re most needed, and the rule will have a harmful ripple effect on the economy, markets, businesses of all sizes and American households.”

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Billion-Dollar Bank Paying $700,000 Penalty for Illegally Freezing Accounts, Transferring Customers’ Cash to Debt Collectors

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New York’s Attorney General is penalizing a national bank for freezing its customers’ accounts and handing the funds over to debt collectors.

New York AG Letitia James says an investigation by the Office of the Attorney General (OAG) found that South Dakota-based Pathward Bank illegally sent debt collectors tens of thousands of dollars from New Yorkers’ accounts and froze hundreds of clients’ accounts more than 1,400 times.

According to the AG, Pathward illegally froze accounts belonging to New Yorkers in violation of the state’s Exempt Income Protection Act (EIPA), which bans banks from freezing accounts that include certain government benefits like Social Security benefits, veterans’ benefits, disability insurance, and unemployment insurance, worth up to $3,425.

Says the Attorney General,

“Vulnerable New Yorkers had money taken out of their bank accounts by the very institution they trusted to protect them… Pathward’s illegal actions deprived New Yorkers of their hard-earned wages and critical government benefits.

My office is refunding New Yorkers for every dollar they lost due to Pathward’s illegal actions. If any New Yorker suspects that money is being improperly removed from their bank account, I encourage them to contact my office immediately.”

The OAG’s investigation also determined that the bank repeatedly violated the EIPA after instructing its third-party servicers to freeze accounts and transfer their funds to debt collectors.

Attorney General James notes that many of the accounts frozen had balances under $800, which is several thousand below the wage threshold under the EIPA.

Pathward has agreed to pay $79,664 plus interest to around 88 New Yorkers effected by the violations, and also pay a penalty of $627,000.

James says Pathward cooperated with the investigation and “voluntarily began to remediate these illegal practices last year.”

Pathward Financial had $6.868 billion in assets as of March 2023.

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