In a recent analysis, veteran trader Peter Brandt delved into the price behavior of Bitcoin, suggesting that the cryptocurrency might have reached its peak for the current cycle. According to Brandt, Bitcoin is exhibiting signs of “Exponential Decay,” indicating a weakening in the momentum of its bull market cycles over the years.

“Does history make a case that Bitcoin has topped? It’s called Exponential Decay — and it describes Bitcoin,” Brandt wrote. He further explained, “The fact is that the bull market cycles in Bitcoin have lost a tremendous amount of thrust over the years… I don’t like the Exponential Decay occurring in Bitcoin — Bitcoin is one of my personal largest investment positions.”

Brandt provided a historical breakdown of Bitcoin’s bull cycles, noting a consistent decrease in the magnitude of gains:

• The bull cycle from December 21, 2009, to June 6, 2011, demonstrated a staggering 3,191X advance.
• The subsequent cycle from November 14, 2011, to November 25, 2013, showed a reduced yet impressive 572X advance.
• The period from August 17, 2015, to December 18, 2017, recorded a further diminished 122X advance.
• More recently, the cycle from December 10, 2018, to November 8, 2021, saw just a 22X advance.

Bitcoin Reached Its Cycle Peak With A Probability Of 25%

Drawing on these historical patterns, Brandt extrapolated that the current cycle, which began on November 21, 2022, would likely see an approximate 4.5X gain from its low of $15,473, predicting a potential high near $72,723. Notably, this peak has already been nearly met with a price of $73,835 recorded on March 14, 2024. Brandt underscores this observation with a caution, “The magnitude of each bull cycle has been roughly 20% of its predecessor, indicating significant energy loss.”

In his analysis, Brandt does not shy away from addressing the implications of Bitcoin’s halving events, which have historically been catalysts for substantial price increases. Despite this, he emphasizes the undeniable presence of the decay pattern: “But for now, we need to deal with the fact of Exponential Decay. It has happened. It is real. You may not want to believe it, but I place a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already topped for this cycle.”

In a communication on X, Brandt responded to a counter analysis by fellow analyst @Giovann35084111, who argued that Bitcoin follows a power law over time, suggesting the potential for ongoing growth despite the observed decay. Brandt acknowledged the validity. “Quite a thorough analysis,” Brand commented.

Quite a thorough analysis https://t.co/hiSogUtEkt

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) April 29, 2024

@Giovann35084111’s analysis extends beyond cyclical trends by illustrating how deviations from the power law at specific intervals, particularly around halving events, provide a structured prediction model. This approach projects systematic patterns in Bitcoin’s price movements, reinforcing a bullish outlook. The analyst predicts a significant rise in Bitcoin’s price, estimating the next top at the end of 2025 to reach between $210,000 and $250,000.

In a later post, Brandt emphasized that his main prediction is an ongoing bull market into September/October 2025. He explained, “I give more credence to a report I issued in February. Here is a chart from that analysis — projecting a bull market until Sep/Oct 2025,” indicating that his views are influenced by evolving market data and theoretical models.

At press time, BTC traded at $62,450.

Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

The Bitcoin network has witnessed a surge in trading activity in the days after the halving, as shown by on-chain data. Although the just concluded halving brought a lot of attention to Bitcoin, the recent surge in trading activity can be attributed to something else.

According to data from on-chain analytics platform IntoTheBlock, the number of daily BTC transactions has grown rapidly in the past few days to reach a new high of 927,000 thanks to a new token standard called Runes.

Bitcoin Daily Transactions Reach New All-Time High

Bitcoin’s price has been skyrocketing since the beginning of the year with interest in the top cryptocurrency exploding. All that new interest means more people buying, selling, and trading BTC, which has led to a huge increase in the number of daily transactions.

Despite the increase in activity, the number of daily transactions failed to break above the 724,000 record for the past four months, until recently this week. 

The main catalyst for this activity surge is the recent launch of the Runes token standard on the Bitcoin blockchain. The Runes Protocol is a new token standard on BTC that gives users a more efficient way of creating fungible tokens.

The additional functionality provided by Runes opens up new possibilities for Bitcoin, allowing users to create non-fungible tokens more efficiently than the existing BRC-20 token system.

Bitcoin is now trading at $63.711. Chart: TradingView

The Runes token standard surged immediately among developers and users after launch, constituting over 68% of Bitcoin transactions recorded. According to Dune’s analytics dashboard, the number of Runes transactions surged to 753,000 on Tuesday, April 23. As a result, the total number of transactions on the day crossed over 927,000 to break the 724,000 record set in December 2023.

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high in daily transactions!

Following the launch of Runes, The number of Bitcoin transactions has increased rapidly, hitting 927,000 on Tuesday. This breaks the previous high of 724k set in December of 2023 pic.twitter.com/30JXbrLmdR

— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) April 26, 2024

On the other hand, the hype surrounding the Runes token standard seems to have faded so quickly. The number of transactions on Runes has now fallen to 104,800 in the past 24 hours, constituting 26% of the total number of transactions.  

Bitcoin Price Prediction

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $63,711 with a price resistance now around $64,500. Bitcoin’s price trajectory can be very tough to predict. Many Bitcoin analysts and traders are still looking forward to a bullish effect of the just concluded halving on the price of the cryptocurrency. A Bitcoin bull flag has just been formed which suggests the possibility of an uptrend very soon.

However, crypto expert Peter Brandt believes Bitcoin might have already reached its top in the current market cycle. His theory is based on the exponential decay thesis which shows that the percentage gain of Bitcoin price has reduced in succeeding market cycles.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

A widely followed analyst believes that Bitcoin (BTC) is gearing up for a parabolic surge despite its recent price doldrums.

Pseudonymous crypto strategist TechDev tells his 447,600 followers on the social media platform X that conditions on Bitcoin’s two-month chart suggest that BTC is almost ready to witness a price explosion.

The analyst predicts that BTC will rally by over 120%, similar to what happened in late 2020 when Bitcoin surged from around $13,000 to over $29,000 in just two months.

“Bitcoin’s two-month candle is right on the candle body high, soon after max compression.

As RSI (relative strength index) is about to break 70.

These have been the conditions which led to the last three parabolic accelerations.

I suspect this next two-month candle will be as tall as Nov 2020.” 

Looking at the trader’s chart, he appears to point out that Bitcoin saw parabolic surges in 2013, 2016 and 2020 when its momentum indicator, the relative strength index (RSI), went above the bullish 70 level.

He also says that Bitcoin’s volatility indicator – the Bollinger Bands Width (BBW) – bottomed out during the same three instances, indicating that BTC was preparing for a big price explosion.

As Bitcoin replicates the exact conditions, TechDev says it is unlikely for BTC to go through a price collapse.

“Please also point out the ‘pullbacks/crashes/dumps’ many have freaked about over the last eight months.” 

Although TechDev is optimistic about the prospect of another parabolic run for Bitcoin, fellow crypto analyst DonAlt does not share the same sentiment.

The analyst who nailed the 2022 Bitcoin bottom warns that support at $60,000 looks vulnerable after getting tested multiple times.

“Back to the same old level. The more often it’s tested the more likely it is to break.

I think even bulls would want to get a washout below it at this point.

Complacency until proven otherwise (as in until $68,000 is reclaimed or range is lost and then reclaimed again).”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $63,524.

Don’t Miss a Beat – Subscribe to get email alerts delivered directly to your inbox

Check Price Action

Follow us on X, Facebook and Telegram

Surf The Daily Hodl Mix

&nbsp

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Featured Image: Shutterstock/andrey_l/Panuwatccn