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Expert Says Bitcoin Price Has Topped And Is In Exponential Decay, Why This Is Not A Bad Thing

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Crypto expert Peter Brandt has boldly claimed that the Bitcoin top for this market cycle may already be in. He made this conclusion based on his “exponential decay” thesis, which he noted may actually be good for the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Why Bitcoin’s Price Has Topped

Brandt explained that historical data suggests that Bitcoin’s price has topped. He further alluded to an “exponential decay,” which he noted could be used to describe Bitcoin. Brandt’s exponential decay thesis is based on the fact that Bitcoin’s percentage gain has significantly reduced in every subsequent bull cycle. 

For context, Bitcoin, according to the crypto expert, recorded a 122x increase from its market low to market high between 2015 and 2017. However, that was only 21.3% of Bitcoin’s price gain in the previous cycle (between 2011 and 2013).

Bitcoin price

Source: X

Brandt further noted that the same thing happened between 2018 and 2021. Despite a 22x increase from its market low to market high, Bitcoin only recorded 18% of the price increase it saw in the previous cycle. Having laid this premise, the crypto expert concluded that this market cycle shouldn’t be any different as Bitcoin will likely see about 20% of the price gain recorded in the previous cycle. 

Taking $15,473 as the market low for this cycle, he noted that 20% of the previous cycle’s gain would mean that the market high for this cycle was supposed to be $72,723, a price level that Bitcoin already hit on its way to a new all-time high (ATH) of $73,750. 

Meanwhile, the crypto expert acknowledged that Bitcoin historically records its most price gains after the Bitcoin halving, which just recently occurred. However, he added that the crypto community has to deal with the fact of the exponential decay, which has made him believe there is a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already topped this cycle.”

Why The Exponential Decay Might Be Bullish For Bitcoin

Brandt mentioned that Bitcoin would likely drop to the mid $30,000 or its 2021 lows if it has indeed topped. He, however, added that this decline could be the “most bullish thing that could happen from a long-term view.”

Related Reading: Brace For Price Impact: Dogecoin Whales Move Massive 456 Million DOGE To Exchanges

From a “classical charting point of view,” the crypto expert hinted that Bitcoin was still primed for major parabolic moves to the upside, even though it doesn’t happen now. 

Source: X

He also shared an example of what Bitcoin’s chart could look like when this move happens with the crypto token rallying above $100,000. Brandt also alluded to Gold’s chart from August 2020 to March 2024 as an example of what Bitcoin’s price action could look like soon enough. Interestingly, he recently predicted that Bitcoin will soon be “King over Gold.”

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com

BTC price drops below $63,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Forkast News, chart from Tradingview.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.



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Bitcoin About To ‘Blow Higher’ Despite This Week’s Pullback, According to Glassnode Co-Founders – Here’s Why

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The founders of crypto analytics platform Glassnode are predicting that Bitcoin (BTC) will soon soar even higher after being up 7% in the last week.

In a new thread, the co-founders of Glassnode, who go by the handle Negentropic on the social media platform X, tell their 62,900 followers that key indicators suggest Bitcoin is gearing up from a massive breakout.

The analysts say Bitcoin appears to be forming a bullish pennant pattern. They also suggest that Bitcoin is correcting to a Fibonacci retracement level, in the low $60,000 range, which often predicts a continuation of an upward trend.

“BTC still looks like it is about to blow higher! Last week’s candle was a reversal candle – a hammer with a long wick. Price moved back into the pennant structure. This candle still dominates the structure. This week’s pullback, hence, seems like a healthy correction before higher. Corrections often pull back either 50% or 61.8% of the previous impulse move.”

Image
Source: Negentropic/X

Looking at their chart, the analysts suggest that Bitcoin has or is about to complete a three-wave ABC correction. The Elliott Wave theory states that a bullish asset often witnesses a fresh leg up after an ABC correction of three wave impulses.

The analysts believe Bitcoin could break through the $85,000 level before the start of summer, which officially begins on June 20th.

“BTC is currently in the process of breaking the trendline of pennant and the 50-day SMA (simple moving average). When the level of $65,000-$66,000 is broken, BTC will move on to first $73,500, then $76,500, and chances are that we see $85,200 before the summer.”

Bitcoin is trading for $62,016 at time of writing, down slightly in the last 24 hours.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Analyst Benjamin Cowen Warns Ethereum ‘Still Facing Headwinds,’ Says ETH Will Only Go Up if Bitcoin Does This

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The widely followed analyst Benjamin Cowen is saying that Ethereum (ETH) is at risk of facing more downside over the coming months.

In a new video, Cowen tells his 801,000 YouTube subscribers that monetary policy is likely to negatively affect Ethereum.

“I think that ETH/USD is still facing some headwinds here, especially following the potential rejection of the spot exchange-traded fund (ETF)…

…I think the impact that people are going to feel is just from tighter monetary policy. They’re going to blame it on the spot ETF and they’re going to capitulate potentially into that.”

According to Cowen, the Ethereum could go up on one condition.

“If ETH goes up from here, it would only be due to Bitcoin going up a lot more.”

The widely followed analyst says that the Ethereum/Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) pair, on the other hand, is likely to keep falling under most circumstances based on history.

“So if Ethereum goes up, Ethereum/Bitcoin is probably going to keep going down. If Bitcoin goes sideways, Ethereum/Bitcoin is going to keep going down in my opinion. And if Bitcoin goes down, Ethereum/Bitcoin probably goes down because Bitcoin has been doing all s of things since 2022 began. In eight of 10 quarters, Ethereum/Bitcoin has gone down whether Bitcoin went up, down or sideways. Ethereum/Bitcoin generally went down.”

ETH is trading at $3,002 at time of writing.

 

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Hackers With $182,000,000 Stolen From Poloniex Starts Moving Funds to Tornado Cash

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The hacker who looted the crypto exchange Poloniex has started moving Ethereum (ETH) to the mixing service Tornado Cash, according to the digital asset de-anonymizing platform Arkham.

Arkham notes the hacker moved 1126.1 ETH worth more than $3.4 million into Tornado Cash across a series of 20 transactions on Monday and Tuesday.

They represent the exploiter’s first moves into the controversial Ethereum-based crypto mixer, which helps users conceal their digital assets.

The hacker raided Poloniex in early November, stealing $56 million worth of ETH, $48 million worth of Tron (TRX) and $18 million worth of Bitcoin (BTC), as well as smaller amounts of other crypto assets.

The exchange, which is owned by Tron founder Justin Sun, offered a 5% white hat bounty that went unaccepted. and the hacker still holds $181.47 million worth of crypto in their primary address, according to Arkham.

Justin Sun-affiliated projects have endured a prolific string of attacks in the past several months:  In September, hackers exploited the Sun-linked exchange giant HTX for approximately 4,999 Ethereum worth $7.9 million, according to the blockchain security firm PeckShield.

Then in November, hackers hit HTX and Heco Bridge, another Sun-linked project that’s used to move funds between Ethereum and energy-saving blockchain Heco Chain, for a combined $100 million, according to cybersecurity firm Cyvers.

And in January, hackers once again struck HTX, hitting the exchange with a distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack that caused a brief outage.

A DDoS attack is a malicious attempt by bad actors to flood the target website with traffic to overwhelm the site’s infrastructure.

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