The Bitcoin network has witnessed a surge in trading activity in the days after the halving, as shown by on-chain data. Although the just concluded halving brought a lot of attention to Bitcoin, the recent surge in trading activity can be attributed to something else.

According to data from on-chain analytics platform IntoTheBlock, the number of daily BTC transactions has grown rapidly in the past few days to reach a new high of 927,000 thanks to a new token standard called Runes.

Bitcoin Daily Transactions Reach New All-Time High

Bitcoin’s price has been skyrocketing since the beginning of the year with interest in the top cryptocurrency exploding. All that new interest means more people buying, selling, and trading BTC, which has led to a huge increase in the number of daily transactions.

Despite the increase in activity, the number of daily transactions failed to break above the 724,000 record for the past four months, until recently this week. 

The main catalyst for this activity surge is the recent launch of the Runes token standard on the Bitcoin blockchain. The Runes Protocol is a new token standard on BTC that gives users a more efficient way of creating fungible tokens.

The additional functionality provided by Runes opens up new possibilities for Bitcoin, allowing users to create non-fungible tokens more efficiently than the existing BRC-20 token system.

Bitcoin is now trading at $63.711. Chart: TradingView

The Runes token standard surged immediately among developers and users after launch, constituting over 68% of Bitcoin transactions recorded. According to Dune’s analytics dashboard, the number of Runes transactions surged to 753,000 on Tuesday, April 23. As a result, the total number of transactions on the day crossed over 927,000 to break the 724,000 record set in December 2023.

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high in daily transactions!

Following the launch of Runes, The number of Bitcoin transactions has increased rapidly, hitting 927,000 on Tuesday. This breaks the previous high of 724k set in December of 2023 pic.twitter.com/30JXbrLmdR

— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) April 26, 2024

On the other hand, the hype surrounding the Runes token standard seems to have faded so quickly. The number of transactions on Runes has now fallen to 104,800 in the past 24 hours, constituting 26% of the total number of transactions.  

Bitcoin Price Prediction

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $63,711 with a price resistance now around $64,500. Bitcoin’s price trajectory can be very tough to predict. Many Bitcoin analysts and traders are still looking forward to a bullish effect of the just concluded halving on the price of the cryptocurrency. A Bitcoin bull flag has just been formed which suggests the possibility of an uptrend very soon.

However, crypto expert Peter Brandt believes Bitcoin might have already reached its top in the current market cycle. His theory is based on the exponential decay thesis which shows that the percentage gain of Bitcoin price has reduced in succeeding market cycles.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

A widely followed analyst believes that Bitcoin (BTC) is gearing up for a parabolic surge despite its recent price doldrums.

Pseudonymous crypto strategist TechDev tells his 447,600 followers on the social media platform X that conditions on Bitcoin’s two-month chart suggest that BTC is almost ready to witness a price explosion.

The analyst predicts that BTC will rally by over 120%, similar to what happened in late 2020 when Bitcoin surged from around $13,000 to over $29,000 in just two months.

“Bitcoin’s two-month candle is right on the candle body high, soon after max compression.

As RSI (relative strength index) is about to break 70.

These have been the conditions which led to the last three parabolic accelerations.

I suspect this next two-month candle will be as tall as Nov 2020.” 

Looking at the trader’s chart, he appears to point out that Bitcoin saw parabolic surges in 2013, 2016 and 2020 when its momentum indicator, the relative strength index (RSI), went above the bullish 70 level.

He also says that Bitcoin’s volatility indicator – the Bollinger Bands Width (BBW) – bottomed out during the same three instances, indicating that BTC was preparing for a big price explosion.

As Bitcoin replicates the exact conditions, TechDev says it is unlikely for BTC to go through a price collapse.

“Please also point out the ‘pullbacks/crashes/dumps’ many have freaked about over the last eight months.” 

Although TechDev is optimistic about the prospect of another parabolic run for Bitcoin, fellow crypto analyst DonAlt does not share the same sentiment.

The analyst who nailed the 2022 Bitcoin bottom warns that support at $60,000 looks vulnerable after getting tested multiple times.

“Back to the same old level. The more often it’s tested the more likely it is to break.

I think even bulls would want to get a washout below it at this point.

Complacency until proven otherwise (as in until $68,000 is reclaimed or range is lost and then reclaimed again).”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $63,524.

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Featured Image: Shutterstock/andrey_l/Panuwatccn

Crypto expert Peter Brandt has boldly claimed that the Bitcoin top for this market cycle may already be in. He made this conclusion based on his “exponential decay” thesis, which he noted may actually be good for the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Why Bitcoin’s Price Has Topped

Brandt explained that historical data suggests that Bitcoin’s price has topped. He further alluded to an “exponential decay,” which he noted could be used to describe Bitcoin. Brandt’s exponential decay thesis is based on the fact that Bitcoin’s percentage gain has significantly reduced in every subsequent bull cycle. 

For context, Bitcoin, according to the crypto expert, recorded a 122x increase from its market low to market high between 2015 and 2017. However, that was only 21.3% of Bitcoin’s price gain in the previous cycle (between 2011 and 2013).

Source: X

Brandt further noted that the same thing happened between 2018 and 2021. Despite a 22x increase from its market low to market high, Bitcoin only recorded 18% of the price increase it saw in the previous cycle. Having laid this premise, the crypto expert concluded that this market cycle shouldn’t be any different as Bitcoin will likely see about 20% of the price gain recorded in the previous cycle. 

Taking $15,473 as the market low for this cycle, he noted that 20% of the previous cycle’s gain would mean that the market high for this cycle was supposed to be $72,723, a price level that Bitcoin already hit on its way to a new all-time high (ATH) of $73,750. 

Meanwhile, the crypto expert acknowledged that Bitcoin historically records its most price gains after the Bitcoin halving, which just recently occurred. However, he added that the crypto community has to deal with the fact of the exponential decay, which has made him believe there is a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already topped this cycle.”

Why The Exponential Decay Might Be Bullish For Bitcoin

Brandt mentioned that Bitcoin would likely drop to the mid $30,000 or its 2021 lows if it has indeed topped. He, however, added that this decline could be the “most bullish thing that could happen from a long-term view.”

Related Reading: Brace For Price Impact: Dogecoin Whales Move Massive 456 Million DOGE To Exchanges

From a “classical charting point of view,” the crypto expert hinted that Bitcoin was still primed for major parabolic moves to the upside, even though it doesn’t happen now. 

Source: X

He also shared an example of what Bitcoin’s chart could look like when this move happens with the crypto token rallying above $100,000. Brandt also alluded to Gold’s chart from August 2020 to March 2024 as an example of what Bitcoin’s price action could look like soon enough. Interestingly, he recently predicted that Bitcoin will soon be “King over Gold.”

BTC price drops below $63,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Forkast News, chart from Tradingview.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.