Bitcoin
Crypto Bull Run Progresses To ‘Middle’ Phase, Future Outlook Detailed
Published
4 weeks agoon
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adminThe cryptocurrency market has witnessed a significant surge after a prolonged bear market and the intensified crypto winter caused by the collapse of crypto exchanges and firms during 2022 and part of 2023.
Notably, Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies have experienced substantial price surges, accompanied by renewed interest from institutional investors entering the market through recently approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Adding to the industry’s positive outlook, asset manager and Bitcoin ETF issuer, Grayscale, believes that the current state of the market indicates that the industry is in the “middle” stages of a crypto bull run.
Grayscale recently released a comprehensive report detailing their key findings and insights into what lies ahead. A closer analysis of the report by market expert Miles Deutscher sheds light on the factors contributing to this assessment.
On-Chain Metrics And Institutional Demand
Grayscale’s report starts by highlighting several key signals indicating that the market is currently in the middle of a bull run. These include Bitcoin’s price surpassing its all-time high before the Halving event, the total crypto market cap reaching its previous peak, and the growing attention from traditional finance (TradFi) towards meme coins.
To understand how long this rally might sustain, Grayscale emphasizes two specific price drivers: spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and strong on-chain fundamentals.
Grayscale notes that nearly $12 billion has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs in just three months, indicating significant “pent-up” retail demand. Moreover, ETF inflows have consistently exceeded BTC issuance, creating upward price pressure due to the demand-supply imbalance.
Grayscale’s research focuses on three critical on-chain metrics: stablecoin inflows, decentralized finance (DeFi) total value locked (TVL), and BTC outflows from exchanges.
According to Deutscher, the increase in stablecoin supply on centralized exchanges (CEXs) and decentralized exchanges (DEXs) by approximately 6% between February and March suggests enhanced liquidity, making more capital readily available for trading.
Furthermore, for the analyst, the doubling of the total value locked into DeFi since 2023 represents growing user engagement, increased liquidity, and improved user experience within the DeFi ecosystem.
The outflows from exchanges, which currently account for about 12% of BTC’s circulating supply (the lowest in five years), indicate rising investor confidence in BTC’s value and a preference for holding rather than selling.
Based on these catalysts, Grayscale asserts that the market is in the “mid-phase” of the bull run, likening it to the “5th inning” in baseball.
Promising Outlook For Crypto Industry
Several key metrics support Grayscale’s analysis, including the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio, which indicates that investors who bought BTC at lower prices continue to hold despite rising prices.
According to Deutscher, the Market Value Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score, currently at 3, implies that there is still room for growth in this cycle. Additionally, the ColinTalksCrypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index (CBBI), which integrates multiple ratios, currently stands at 79/100, suggesting that the market is approaching historical cycle peaks with some upward momentum remaining.
Furthermore, retail interest has yet to fully return this cycle, as evidenced by lower cryptocurrency YouTube subscription rates and reduced Google Trends interest for “crypto” compared to the previous cycle.
Ultimately, Grayscale retains a “cautiously optimistic” stance regarding the future of this bull cycle, given the promising signals and analysis outlined in their report.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
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Bitcoin
Legendary Trader Predicts When Bitcoin’s Bull Run Will End
Published
10 hours agoon
April 29, 2024By
adminIn a recent analysis, veteran trader Peter Brandt delved into the price behavior of Bitcoin, suggesting that the cryptocurrency might have reached its peak for the current cycle. According to Brandt, Bitcoin is exhibiting signs of “Exponential Decay,” indicating a weakening in the momentum of its bull market cycles over the years.
“Does history make a case that Bitcoin has topped? It’s called Exponential Decay — and it describes Bitcoin,” Brandt wrote. He further explained, “The fact is that the bull market cycles in Bitcoin have lost a tremendous amount of thrust over the years… I don’t like the Exponential Decay occurring in Bitcoin — Bitcoin is one of my personal largest investment positions.”
Brandt provided a historical breakdown of Bitcoin’s bull cycles, noting a consistent decrease in the magnitude of gains:
- The bull cycle from December 21, 2009, to June 6, 2011, demonstrated a staggering 3,191X advance.
- The subsequent cycle from November 14, 2011, to November 25, 2013, showed a reduced yet impressive 572X advance.
- The period from August 17, 2015, to December 18, 2017, recorded a further diminished 122X advance.
- More recently, the cycle from December 10, 2018, to November 8, 2021, saw just a 22X advance.
Bitcoin Reached Its Cycle Peak With A Probability Of 25%
Drawing on these historical patterns, Brandt extrapolated that the current cycle, which began on November 21, 2022, would likely see an approximate 4.5X gain from its low of $15,473, predicting a potential high near $72,723. Notably, this peak has already been nearly met with a price of $73,835 recorded on March 14, 2024. Brandt underscores this observation with a caution, “The magnitude of each bull cycle has been roughly 20% of its predecessor, indicating significant energy loss.”
In his analysis, Brandt does not shy away from addressing the implications of Bitcoin’s halving events, which have historically been catalysts for substantial price increases. Despite this, he emphasizes the undeniable presence of the decay pattern: “But for now, we need to deal with the fact of Exponential Decay. It has happened. It is real. You may not want to believe it, but I place a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already topped for this cycle.”
In a communication on X, Brandt responded to a counter analysis by fellow analyst @Giovann35084111, who argued that Bitcoin follows a power law over time, suggesting the potential for ongoing growth despite the observed decay. Brandt acknowledged the validity. “Quite a thorough analysis,” Brand commented.
Quite a thorough analysis https://t.co/hiSogUtEkt
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) April 29, 2024
@Giovann35084111’s analysis extends beyond cyclical trends by illustrating how deviations from the power law at specific intervals, particularly around halving events, provide a structured prediction model. This approach projects systematic patterns in Bitcoin’s price movements, reinforcing a bullish outlook. The analyst predicts a significant rise in Bitcoin’s price, estimating the next top at the end of 2025 to reach between $210,000 and $250,000.
In a later post, Brandt emphasized that his main prediction is an ongoing bull market into September/October 2025. He explained, “I give more credence to a report I issued in February. Here is a chart from that analysis — projecting a bull market until Sep/Oct 2025,” indicating that his views are influenced by evolving market data and theoretical models.
At press time, BTC traded at $62,450.
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
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The Bitcoin network has witnessed a surge in trading activity in the days after the halving, as shown by on-chain data. Although the just concluded halving brought a lot of attention to Bitcoin, the recent surge in trading activity can be attributed to something else.
According to data from on-chain analytics platform IntoTheBlock, the number of daily BTC transactions has grown rapidly in the past few days to reach a new high of 927,000 thanks to a new token standard called Runes.
Bitcoin Daily Transactions Reach New All-Time High
Bitcoin’s price has been skyrocketing since the beginning of the year with interest in the top cryptocurrency exploding. All that new interest means more people buying, selling, and trading BTC, which has led to a huge increase in the number of daily transactions.
Despite the increase in activity, the number of daily transactions failed to break above the 724,000 record for the past four months, until recently this week.
The main catalyst for this activity surge is the recent launch of the Runes token standard on the Bitcoin blockchain. The Runes Protocol is a new token standard on BTC that gives users a more efficient way of creating fungible tokens.
The additional functionality provided by Runes opens up new possibilities for Bitcoin, allowing users to create non-fungible tokens more efficiently than the existing BRC-20 token system.
Bitcoin is now trading at $63.711. Chart: TradingView
The Runes token standard surged immediately among developers and users after launch, constituting over 68% of Bitcoin transactions recorded. According to Dune’s analytics dashboard, the number of Runes transactions surged to 753,000 on Tuesday, April 23. As a result, the total number of transactions on the day crossed over 927,000 to break the 724,000 record set in December 2023.
Bitcoin hit a new all-time high in daily transactions!
Following the launch of Runes, The number of Bitcoin transactions has increased rapidly, hitting 927,000 on Tuesday. This breaks the previous high of 724k set in December of 2023 pic.twitter.com/30JXbrLmdR
— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) April 26, 2024
On the other hand, the hype surrounding the Runes token standard seems to have faded so quickly. The number of transactions on Runes has now fallen to 104,800 in the past 24 hours, constituting 26% of the total number of transactions.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $63,711 with a price resistance now around $64,500. Bitcoin’s price trajectory can be very tough to predict. Many Bitcoin analysts and traders are still looking forward to a bullish effect of the just concluded halving on the price of the cryptocurrency. A Bitcoin bull flag has just been formed which suggests the possibility of an uptrend very soon.
However, crypto expert Peter Brandt believes Bitcoin might have already reached its top in the current market cycle. His theory is based on the exponential decay thesis which shows that the percentage gain of Bitcoin price has reduced in succeeding market cycles.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
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Bitcoin
Bitcoin Could Witness Repeat of November 2020 Parabolic Rally Amid Max Price Compression, Says Analyst
Published
2 days agoon
April 28, 2024By
adminA widely followed analyst believes that Bitcoin (BTC) is gearing up for a parabolic surge despite its recent price doldrums.
Pseudonymous crypto strategist TechDev tells his 447,600 followers on the social media platform X that conditions on Bitcoin’s two-month chart suggest that BTC is almost ready to witness a price explosion.
The analyst predicts that BTC will rally by over 120%, similar to what happened in late 2020 when Bitcoin surged from around $13,000 to over $29,000 in just two months.
“Bitcoin’s two-month candle is right on the candle body high, soon after max compression.
As RSI (relative strength index) is about to break 70.
These have been the conditions which led to the last three parabolic accelerations.
I suspect this next two-month candle will be as tall as Nov 2020.”
Looking at the trader’s chart, he appears to point out that Bitcoin saw parabolic surges in 2013, 2016 and 2020 when its momentum indicator, the relative strength index (RSI), went above the bullish 70 level.
He also says that Bitcoin’s volatility indicator – the Bollinger Bands Width (BBW) – bottomed out during the same three instances, indicating that BTC was preparing for a big price explosion.
As Bitcoin replicates the exact conditions, TechDev says it is unlikely for BTC to go through a price collapse.
“Please also point out the ‘pullbacks/crashes/dumps’ many have freaked about over the last eight months.”
Although TechDev is optimistic about the prospect of another parabolic run for Bitcoin, fellow crypto analyst DonAlt does not share the same sentiment.
The analyst who nailed the 2022 Bitcoin bottom warns that support at $60,000 looks vulnerable after getting tested multiple times.
“Back to the same old level. The more often it’s tested the more likely it is to break.
I think even bulls would want to get a washout below it at this point.
Complacency until proven otherwise (as in until $68,000 is reclaimed or range is lost and then reclaimed again).”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $63,524.
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