Crypto expert Peter Brandt has boldly claimed that the Bitcoin top for this market cycle may already be in. He made this conclusion based on his “exponential decay” thesis, which he noted may actually be good for the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Why Bitcoin’s Price Has Topped

Brandt explained that historical data suggests that Bitcoin’s price has topped. He further alluded to an “exponential decay,” which he noted could be used to describe Bitcoin. Brandt’s exponential decay thesis is based on the fact that Bitcoin’s percentage gain has significantly reduced in every subsequent bull cycle. 

For context, Bitcoin, according to the crypto expert, recorded a 122x increase from its market low to market high between 2015 and 2017. However, that was only 21.3% of Bitcoin’s price gain in the previous cycle (between 2011 and 2013).

Source: X

Brandt further noted that the same thing happened between 2018 and 2021. Despite a 22x increase from its market low to market high, Bitcoin only recorded 18% of the price increase it saw in the previous cycle. Having laid this premise, the crypto expert concluded that this market cycle shouldn’t be any different as Bitcoin will likely see about 20% of the price gain recorded in the previous cycle. 

Taking $15,473 as the market low for this cycle, he noted that 20% of the previous cycle’s gain would mean that the market high for this cycle was supposed to be $72,723, a price level that Bitcoin already hit on its way to a new all-time high (ATH) of $73,750. 

Meanwhile, the crypto expert acknowledged that Bitcoin historically records its most price gains after the Bitcoin halving, which just recently occurred. However, he added that the crypto community has to deal with the fact of the exponential decay, which has made him believe there is a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already topped this cycle.”

Why The Exponential Decay Might Be Bullish For Bitcoin

Brandt mentioned that Bitcoin would likely drop to the mid $30,000 or its 2021 lows if it has indeed topped. He, however, added that this decline could be the “most bullish thing that could happen from a long-term view.”

Related Reading: Brace For Price Impact: Dogecoin Whales Move Massive 456 Million DOGE To Exchanges

From a “classical charting point of view,” the crypto expert hinted that Bitcoin was still primed for major parabolic moves to the upside, even though it doesn’t happen now. 

Source: X

He also shared an example of what Bitcoin’s chart could look like when this move happens with the crypto token rallying above $100,000. Brandt also alluded to Gold’s chart from August 2020 to March 2024 as an example of what Bitcoin’s price action could look like soon enough. Interestingly, he recently predicted that Bitcoin will soon be “King over Gold.”

BTC price drops below $63,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Forkast News, chart from Tradingview.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

A widely followed crypto analyst is issuing a warning that the altcoin market is about to implode against Bitcoin (BTC).

In a new video update, crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen tells his 800,000 YouTube subscribers that the TOTAL3 chart, which tracks the market capitalization of all altcoins minus Ethereum (ETH) and stablecoins, looks bearish against Bitcoin.

According to Cowen, the weakness of altcoins against Bitcoin suggests that alts may witness a collapse in the coming weeks.

“A majority of the altcoins are still putting in new lows on their Bitcoin pairs and to find ones that are not, you’d have to cherry-pick ones in the top 20 that are not or they’re on their way to new lows right now or you’d have to find a micro-cap that was created recently and show that one that’s not putting in new lows.

But a lot of them are and you can see that by looking at TOTAL3 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin. I think what you’re witnessing right now is the last exit pump of alt/Bitcoin pairs before we see final capitulation of alt/Bitcoin pairs as we go into May and June. That is what I think.”

The analyst says a TOTAL3/Bitcoin pattern that played out in 2019 may be repeating itself in the current cycle.

“This is a very similar pattern we saw last cycle where after setting a low here [in May 2019], we then had one final bounce [in June 2019] that ultimately faded just below the bull market support band and then it rolled over into the summer.

And a lot of times you will see alt/Bitcoin pairs capitulate in the summertime because a lot of people aren’t as glued to their computers as they are during the fall and the spring and the winter. During the summertime, people focus on other things a lot of times, and so the collective bid for the altcoin market can often dry up.

And so I think that that’s what you’re looking at right now. I think we’re seeing alt/Bitcoin pairs get this final bounce up, but I think they’re going to ultimately fail here and go back down to the range lows but this time when they break, I don’t think there’s going to be any mercy in another rally. I think it’ll just lead you into the final capitulation, going back to 25% of Bitcoin’s market cap.”

Don’t Miss a Beat – Subscribe to get email alerts delivered directly to your inbox

Check Price Action

Follow us on X, Facebook and Telegram

Surf The Daily Hodl Mix

&nbsp

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Generated Image: DALLE3

A bull flag recently formed on the Bitcoin chart, raising the possibility of a trend reversal soon enough as the flagship crypto makes significant moves to the upside. This crypto analyst suggests that the crypto could rise to as high as $100,000 when it makes that move.

Bitcoin’s Bull Flag Suggests More Upside

Denis Baca, Head of Product at Zivoe Finance, noted that the bull flag formation on Bitcoin’s daily chart historically suggests that the crypto token is primed for more upsides. He added that the bullish pattern is “shaping up nicely” and that Bitcoin could potentially shoot up towards $100,000 once the declining volume picks up. 

However, Baca further suggested that Bitcoin could drop below $60,000 before it makes such a parabolic move. He alluded to how the crypto token historically retests the support level of the 20-week SMA (small moving average) in May. This could cause Bitcoin to drop to $56,000, he claimed. 

Total crypto market cap currently at $2.2 trillion. Chart: TradingView

Baca opined that such price dips could be “healthy” for Bitcoin before it experiences a reversal. He elaborated that these dips “offer solid buying opportunities,” which could help spark Bitcoin’s move to record highs.

Crypto analyst Mikybull Crypto also shared his thoughts on what this bullish pattern could mean for Bitcoin. On his part, he suggested that the formation further proves the continuation of Bitcoin’s bull run and that a bearish reversal was unlikely.

#Bitcoin on a daily chart forming a bull continuation pattern.

According to Wyckoff’s law of cause and effect “the longer the consolidation, the more explosive the markup will be” pic.twitter.com/ArH0lNnyc2

— Mikybull 🐂Crypto (@MikybullCrypto) April 26, 2024

He also hinted that the next leg up could be massive as he alluded to Wyckoff’s law of cause and effect, which states that “the longer the consolidation, the more explosive the markup will be.”

Bitcoin Needs A Catalyst To Spark This Upward Trend

Andrey Stoychev, Head of prime brokerage at Nexo, remarked that any potential price rise for Bitcoin is unlikely to be realized without a catalyst. He noted that the flagship crypto token has managed to build resilient support at $64,000, but without any catalyst, it will merely continue to trade around the $67,000 range. 

It is worth noting that the Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which previously served as a major catalyst to Bitcoin’s price surges, have recently suffered from declining demand. They have also experienced significant net outflows this month, leading to a wave of Bitcoin sell-offs from the fund issuers to fulfill redemptions. 

Despite this, Stoychev is positive that Bitcoin won’t drop below $60,000. He predicts that the only thing that can cause Bitcoin to retrace to such a level is if high interest rates are maintained longer than expected, as this can affect sentiment toward crypto assets. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $62,900, down over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. 

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.