The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below the $25,000 mark for the first time since March 17 following a hawkish Fed announcement amidanother turbulent week for the crypto industry.
Within the span of 30 minutes on June 15, the price of Bitcoin fell 4% from $25,867 to $24,819 according to data from TradingView. At the time of publication Bitcoin has regained ground and is holding just above $25,000.
Bitcoin price from June 12 to June 15. Source: TradingView.
Over the past week Bitcoin had been holding around the $26,000 region as the market came to grips with the SEC’s legal action against crypto exchange heavyweights Coinbase and Binance as well as increasing macroeconomic uncertainty around interest rate signals from the United States Federal Reserve.
The sharp drop in price arrived roughly three hours after the Federal Reserve announced a pause on interest rate hikes, following a fifteen-month-long campaign of rate increases to combat surging inflation.
While the market was almost unanimously expecting a rate pause, the Federal Open Markets Committee statement hinted at further rate hikes in the future, which typically blunts investor excitement for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
According to eToro Market Analyst Josh Gilbert, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has made it quite clear that this is only a temporary pause, something that could spell further trouble for Bitcoin in the long-term.
“Much of the positivity we’ve seen from risk assets this year, including Bitcoin, is built on the expectation that inflation will fall and interest rates will peak, and then begin to be cut,” Gilbert said.
Inflation is moving in the right direction but the comments from Jerome Powell signify that rates could stay higher for longer, which would put Bitcoin on the back foot.”
Related: SEC, CPI and a ‘strong rebound’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
The second largest cryptocurrency by market cap, Ether (ETH), also took a hit, falling more than 5% from $1,727 to $1,631 in the same time frame. Altcoins were not spared from the bearish sentiment either, with many of the tokens labeled as securities in the SEC’s lawsuits stumbling another than 3%.
Cardano (ADA) is currently down 3.4% in the last 24 hours, while Polygon (MATIC) and Solana (SOL) fell 3.3% and 2.8% respectively.
According to Cointelegraph analyst Marcel Pechman, current options data for Bitcoin suggests a further slide to the downside, especially when considering the regulatory hostility towards the crypto industry on U.S. soil combined with the likelihood of further rate increases from the Fed in the coming months.
Magazine: Bitcoin is on a collision course with ‘Net Zero’ promises
Update (June 15, 1:40am UTC): This article has been updated to include comments from eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert.
Bitcoin price started a fresh decline below the $25,500 support. BTC is now at a risk of more losses toward the $24,000 support zone.
Bitcoin is gaining bearish momentum below the $25,500 support.
The price is trading below $25,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
There was a break below a key rising channel with support near $25,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair could correct higher but upsides might be limited above $25,500.
Bitcoin Price Extends Decline
Bitcoin price failed to start a fresh increase above the $26,200 resistance zone. BTC failed to remain in a positive zone after the Fed interest rate decision and declined below the $25,500 support.
The price declined below the $25,400 support to trade to a new weekly low. Besides, there was a break below a key rising channel with support near $25,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. There was a move below the $25,000 support zone.
A low is formed near $24,818 and the price is now consolidating losses. It is trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $26,063 swing high to the $24,818 low.
Bitcoin price is now trading below $25,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Immediate resistance is near the $25,200 level.
The first major resistance is near the $25,500 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $26,063 swing high to the $24,818 low. A clear move above the $25,500 resistance might start a fresh increase. The next major resistance is near the $26,000 level, above which the bulls might send BTC toward the $26,500 resistance zone.
More Losses in BTC?
If Bitcoin’s price fails to clear the $25,500 resistance, it could continue to move down. Immediate support on the downside is near the $24,800 level and the recent low.
The next major support is near the $24,500 level, below which the price might gain bearish momentum. In the stated case, the price could drop toward the $24,000 support in the near term.
Technical indicators:
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is below the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $24,800, followed by $24,500.
Major Resistance Levels – $25,200, $25,500, and $26,000.
The crypto market remains volatile after the June 14 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement and presser with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell revealed that the central bank would pause rate hikes for June.
While this move aligned with investors’ expectations, the crypto market has yet to show any bullish momentum. Powell also mentioned that at least two more rate hikes would be needed in the future.
Bitcoin price started the day up, trading above $26,000, but it has since retraced to a 24-hour low of $25,791 after the FOMC announcement. Some analysts are predicting that a drop to $25,000 is inevitable based on the current state of BTC derivatives data.
The muted crypto price action and lack of a bullish response to today’s rate hike pause could be the lingering effect of the SEC’s charges against Binance and Coinbase exchange.
Related: ‘Holy shit, I’ve seen that!’ — Coldie’s Snoop Dogg, Vitalik and McAfee NFTs
FOMC tanks crypto and some equities
The stock market dropped sharply on June 14 after the FOMC decision with the Dow dropping 200 points minutes after the announcement. Another major equity index, the S&P 500 hit a 13-month high.
While Powell decided to pause interest rate hikes, the Federal Reserve reiterated the focus to bring down elevated inflation.
In the policy issuance, the Federal Reserve stated,
“In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”
The wording shows a potential return to interest rate hikes in the future. To date, crypto prices are still highly correlated with the Dow and S&P 500 and most major banks still expect the U.S. to experience a sharp recession at some point in 2023. This has not stopped major stock indices from reaching yearly highs after the United States debt ceiling deal.
According to U.S. Bank analysis which incorporates more than 1,000 data points, investor sentiment about the current state of the economy remains low.
Global economic health. Source: U.S. Bank
According to Robert Haworth, Senior Investment Strategy Director at U.S. Bank,
“Overall, the U.S. economy is slowing, but not reaching recession.”
The pausing of rate hikes is causing volatility across equities and cryptocurrencies.
Crypto sector regulation is still the main threat
Regulation has been a constant in the recent cryptocurrency news cycle. While the EU unveiled a digital asset framework, MiCA, the United States seems intent to regulate through SEC enforcement.
On June 5 and June 6, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission filed civil lawsuits against two of the largest centralized exchanges in crypto, Binance and Coinbase. The SEC claims that 61 different cryptocurrencies, representing $100 billion in value, are securities.
One of the 61 crypto tokens listed was Algorand (ALGO), a token that in 2019, Gensler called a “great technology” which seems to contradict this latest enforcement action.
Other top crypto tokens specifically mentioned as securities include Binance USD (BUSD), Binance Coin (BNB), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Polygon (MATIC), Filecoin (FIL), Cosmos (ATOM), The Sandbox (SAND), Decentraland (MANA), Axie Infinity (AXS) and COTI.
The recent SEC action adds to a long history of disputes, misconceptions or mistrust over the actual use case of digital assets. After the FTX implosion, some feel U.S. lawmakers are angry with the crypto industry. The most recent battle is centered on how centralized exchanges can use customer funds.
Not all lawmakers are comfortable with Gensler’s actions. United States Rep. Warren Davidson (OH) introduced the “SEC Stabilization Act” into the House of Representatives on June 12. The bill would remove Gensler as Chair and redistribute power amongst a committee.
TVL and volume remain low
The attack on centralized exchanges has also increased Bitcoin exchange inflow and outflow. Exchange inflows indicate increased sell-side pressure while outflows are typical to self-custody assets.
Bitcoin exchange net transfer volume. Source: Glassnode
Despite the netflow movement to on-chain self-custody, DeFi has not witnessed growth. The total value locked metric (TVL) is a common way to examine the health and sentiment of the crypto market. According to DeFiLlama, TVL across all protocols dropped 0.5% in the past 24-hours and shed $120 billion since April 5, 2022.
All protocol ecosystems total value locked. Source: DeFiLlama
Related: Crypto industry ‘destined’ to be BTC-focused due to regulators: Michael Saylor
With heavy macro headwinds, upcoming rate hikes and low volume, it is likely the volatility in crypto will remain for the foreseeable future.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
So far, the supply of Bitcoin (BTC) held on exchanges has recently seen a significant decrease, reaching levels last observed in February 2018. This trend underscores a developing pattern in the crypto market – traders and investors preferring to secure their digital assets outside of these platforms.
Data from the blockchain intelligence firm, Santiment, confirms this trend, as reported in a recent tweet. It revealed that the decline in Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges could be attributed to the prevailing uncertainty associated with the legal actions taken by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against cryptocurrency giants, Binance and Coinbase.
Regulatory Tensions Drive Bitcoin Off Exchanges
According to Santiment, the ongoing SEC lawsuits against major exchange platforms have prompted a shift in the dynamics of Bitcoin storage. The firm maintains that as long as these lawsuits persist, Bitcoin holders will continue to seek safer self-custody options, minimizing their reliance on exchange platforms.
As Santiment pointed out:
Bitcoin’s exchange supply has now fallen to its lowest level since February 2018. Traders continue moving BTC to self-custody during the uncertainty surrounding Binance and Coinbase. As long as these SEC lawsuits loom, this trend should continue.
Notably, the latest reports reveal that Amy Berman Jackson, a District Judge in the United States, has instructed the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Binance.US to find common ground concerning the original order to freeze the exchange’s assets.
Highlighting the broader implications of an outright shutdown, Jackson noted in a hearing on June 13:
A total shutdown would yield considerable repercussions, not only for the firm but also for the overall digital asset market.
Thus far, it appears both parties are willing to collaborate on a plan that could enable the exchange to evade the comprehensive freezing of its assets.
Market Reactions Amid Ongoing Litigation
While the legal issues unfold, the crypto market has not remained untouched. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $25,990, marking a modest drop of 0.5% in the last 24 hours and a further plunge of 3.1% in the past seven days.
BTC’s price moving sideways on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s trading volume has also recorded a significant plunge from $23.6 billion last Wednesday to $9.1 billion in the past 24 hours indicating less trading activity. The asset’s market capitalization has seen a more than $10 billion loss in the past week, causing BTC’s market cap has plummeted from $518 billion last Wednesday to $503 billion as of today.
Furthermore, the litigation cloud hanging over the crypto giants represents more than a fleeting problem for the crypto industry. It introduces a level of uncertainty that could disrupt the usual flow of operations and, as it is being witnessed, influence the way Bitcoin is stored.
Nonetheless, despite these challenges, the tenacity of Bitcoin holders in securing their assets exhibits the resilience of the cryptocurrency industry. As the market navigates the ever-evolving regulatory landscape, market dynamics such as these provide crucial insights into the coping mechanisms adopted by traders and investors.
Featured image from iStock, Chart from TradingView