The United States is headed for a credit crunch and now is the right time to buy gold, silver and Bitcoin (BTC), says Galaxy Digital founder and CEO Michael Novogratz.
“We are going to have a credit crunch in the U.S. and globally,” Novogratz explained in an interview on CNBC. “You want to be long gold and silver […] and you want to be long Bitcoin,” he said.
Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box on March 15, Novogratz noted that banks typically rebuild capital by lending less, meaning that a credit crunch is imminent, noting that indicators like the commodities market are already pointing to a recession.
The U.S. banking industry fell into turmoil this month, with Silvergate Bank, Signature Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) all collapsing in the same week. Moody’s downgraded the U.S. banking system outlook to “negative.”
Related: Blame traditional finance for the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank
In the interview, Novogratz suggested a reversal in interest rate policy was on the cards, saying that while the Federal Reserve would “like to do a dovish hike, just for credibility’s sale,” doing so would be a “huge policy error.”
Alongside his prediction of tough times for the U.S. economy, Novogratz expressed a bullish sentiment for crypto, saying:
“If there was ever a time to be in bitcoin and crypto, this is why it was created, in that governments print too much money whenever the pain gets too great, and we’re seeing that.”
The price of Bitcoin dipped after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last week but managed to reach new 2023 highs of $26,514.72 on March 14, according to CoinMarketCap.
Looks like Bitcoin is moving on from its risk asset days. As more and more people begin to understand its fundamental value case, the market is slowly turning to Bitcoin as a digital form of gold.
Amid the ongoing crypto regulatory uncertainty, Bitcoin’s market dominance has surged to its highest level since July 2021, suggesting a shift in the sentiments of traders and investors towards the world’s pioneer and most substantial cryptocurrency, Bitcoin.
This milestone highlights the current volatility of the crypto market as it continues to grapple with regulatory uncertainty and the various factors that impact Bitcoin’s value.
The Resurgence Of Bitcoin Dominance
The latest data from TradingView reveals that Bitcoin dominance, defined as Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, has hit a high of 49.5%. This level has not been recorded since July 2021 when Bitcoin’s dominance touched a peak of over 48%.
Bitcoin (BTC) market dominance on TradingView.com
It is worth noting that earlier this year in April, Bitcoin’s dominance momentarily reached 48.83%, after which it fluctuated within a specific range.
However, the past week saw a notable increase in Bitcoin’s market dominance, correlating with the time when the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) categorized numerous tokens as unregistered securities in its lawsuits against the world’s largest crypto exchanges – Binance and Coinbase.
The regulatory actions by the SEC underscore an environment of uncertainty that has had noticeable effects on the crypto market. Amid this backdrop, Bitcoin emerges as a sort of safe haven.
Micheal Saylor, a prominent Bitcoin advocate, echoed these sentiments in a recent interview with Bloomberg, predicting that: “the entire industry is kind of destined to be rationalized down to Bitcoin and a half a dozen to a dozen other proof-of-work tokens.”
Furthermore, anticipation around the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, slated for April or May 2024, could be a contributing factor to Bitcoin’s increasing dominance.
This quadrennial event reduces the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks by half, effectively slowing the rate at which new Bitcoins are created to manage inflation and maintain their scarcity. The impending halving will result in a block reward decrease from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins.
Notably, BTC has been in a downward trend in the past week. The largest crypto asset by market capitalization has recorded a bearish movement falling by nearly 5% in the past 7 days. However, over the past 24 hours, BTC has picked up an uptrend, seeing a 2.3% gain in its value.
Bitcoin (BTC)’s price moving sideways on the 4-hour chart. Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
Bitcoin currently has a market price of $25,515, at the time of writing after initially trading below that price range earlier this week. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s trading volume has plunged over the past 24 hours from over $15 billion on Thursday to $7.7 billion at the time of writing indicating less trading activity.
Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView
The application by BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, for approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is the biggest story in the crypto market today. Numerous experts are extremely optimistic that an approval of the first Bitcoin spot ETF in the US will be a massively bullish event, attracting huge amounts of new capital and triggering a new bull run.
But where does this theory come from? Bitcoin is often referred to as the digital gold of the 21st century, so it’s an obvious choice to look at the history of gold and the first gold based spot ETF.
Why The BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Would Be So Bullish
The first thing to note is that BlackRock applied for a spot ETF and not a Futures ETF. The SEC has already approved a number of Bitcoin Futures ETFs that hold Bitcoin futures contracts on the CME. These are currently traded on the US equity markets, but have relatively low popularity. And this has its reasons, first and foremost the so-called “drag”, as Scimitar Capital explains.
Drag refers to the underperformance of a fund that attempts to replicate the return of a particular underlying asset and is a long-term result of regular portfolio rebalancing. To track the spot price, BITO, the largest bitcoin futures ETF, holds 2/3 in the front-month future and 1/3 in the following month.
However, this “rolling” is costly because of transaction fees, slippage and because futures for the last month are usually traded at a premium over the first month in BTC (“contango”). For this reason, futures ETFs are not a good investment for retail traders in the long run and are therefore unpopular.
A Bitcoin spot ETF does not have these disadvantages. “This is the reason why physically backed ETFs like GLD and IAU for gold have a combined 90B of AUM whereas futures backed ones like BITO and USO have a paltry 1.6B,” Scimitar Capital says.
The first gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), was listed on the NYSE on November 15, 2004 and revolutionized gold trading. Before GLD came on the market, it was possible to invest in gold in the form of bars, coins, certificates and shares of gold mining companies.
The exchange-traded fund made investing in precious metals a no-brainer and eliminated the problems of shipping and vaults. The same revolution could be coming to Bitcoin by a Bitcoin spot ETF. Retail investors could hold Bitcoin long-term through the ETF without worrying about custody and private keys.
And the revolution in gold also made itself felt in the price. While the price of gold was still below $450 per ounce in November 2004, gold saw a meteoric rise in the years that followed.
In September 2011, less than seven years after the launch, gold was trading at $1920 per ounce. Many economic factors have influenced the price of gold, but the launch of ETFs certainly played an influential role in attracting global institutional funds to the market.
The digital gold of the 21st century, Bitcoin, may yet see this price explosion if history repeats itself.
At press time, BTC traded at $25,604, reclaiming the 200-day EMA (blue line).
The Bitcoin price has risen 3.2% since yesterday’s low of $24,827. At press time, BTC was trading at $25,590 and has thus reclaimed two extremely important price levels for the moment: first, the Bitcoin price has once again risen above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) currently at $25,299, and second, the price is now also back above the 200-week EMA at $25,304 (with the weekly close becoming of crucial importance).
As always, there are several narratives for yesterday’s rise in price. The most obvious narrative and currently the biggest topic in the market is the Bitcoin spot ETF filing by BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). A spot ETF is seen as the holy grail that could finally open the floodgates for institutional liquidity, as Bitcoinist reported today.
Reasons For The Bitcoin Rally
BlackRock is believed to have a strong chance of getting the first spot-based Bitcoin ETF approved by the SEC due to its political influence and network. The new capital inflows made possible may have the potential to be the next bull run catalyst, according to many experts.
“BlackRock getting a BTC ETF through would be the best thing that could happen to BTC,” Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said yesterday. Accordingly, the news is likely to have created a bullish sentiment in the market.
However, as always, several reasons play a role in the price movement on the Bitcoin market. One issue that should not be neglected is always the macro situation and the US dollar index (DXY). The latter has seen a setback in the last three days, falling from 104.70 to currently 102.21. This is likely to have favored BTC for now.
As for the macro situation, Wednesday’s interest rate decision by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) certainly still plays a role. The main story is that the market is not buying Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish stance. Analysts believe that the two more rate hikes announced in the dot plot are a feint to prevent a bullish breakout in the financial markets.
Finally, BTC’s decoupling from the S&P 500 has also been seen in recent days. Yesterday’s move could have been the start of a catch-up rally in which BTC shakes off the unnecessary losses caused by the Tether FUD and the SEC lawsuits against Coinbase and Binance US.
In addition, Bitcoin hodlers continue to show historically high conviction. As on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr explained via Twitter, the total BTC inflow across all exchanges is currently at a low, suggesting that Bitcoin holders are in no hurry to sell their coins.
The total BTC inflow across all exchanges is currently at a low, indicating that Bitcoin owners are not in a rush to sell their coins. #Bitcoin#HODLpic.twitter.com/JTscheVcgO
As NewsBTC reported, yesterday’s Tether FUD may also have once again marked the bottom for Bitcoin. Within the last bear market, there have already been three de-pegging events of stablecoins, all of them were marking the local bottom.